From pixels to planning: scale-free active inference

This paper describes a discrete state-space model -- and accompanying methods -- for generative modelling. This model generalises partially observed Markov decision processes to include paths as latent variables, rendering it suitable for active inference and learning in a dynamic setting. Specifically, we consider deep or hierarchical forms using the renormalisation group. The ensuing renormalising generative models (RGM) can be regarded as discrete homologues of deep convolutional neural networks or continuous state-space models in generalised coordinates of motion. By construction, these scale-invariant models can be used to learn compositionality over space and time, furnishing models of paths or orbits; i.e., events of increasing temporal depth and itinerancy. This technical note illustrates the automatic discovery, learning and deployment of RGMs using a series of applications. We start with image classification and then consider the compression and generation of movies and music. Finally, we apply the same variational principles to the learning of Atari-like games.

Active Inference and Intentional Behaviour

Recent advances in theoretical biology suggest that basal cognition and sentient behaviour are emergent properties of in vitro cell cultures and neuronal networks, respectively. Such neuronal networks spontaneously learn structured behaviours in the absence of reward or reinforcement. In this paper, we characterise this kind of self-organisation through the lens of the free energy principle, i.e., as self-evidencing. We do this by first discussing the definitions of reactive and sentient behaviour in the setting of active inference, which describes the behaviour of agents that model the consequences of their actions. We then introduce a formal account of intentional behaviour, that describes agents as driven by a preferred endpoint or goal in latent state-spaces. We then investigate these forms of (reactive, sentient, and intentional) behaviour using simulations. First, we simulate the aforementioned in vitro experiments, in which neuronal cultures spontaneously learn to play Pong, by implementing nested, free energy minimising processes. The simulations are then used to deconstruct the ensuing predictive behaviour, leading to the distinction between merely reactive, sentient, and intentional behaviour, with the latter formalised in terms of inductive planning. This distinction is further studied using simple machine learning benchmarks (navigation in a grid world and the Tower of Hanoi problem), that show how quickly and efficiently adaptive behaviour emerges under an inductive form of active inference.

Supervised structure learning

This paper concerns structure learning or discovery of discrete generative models. It focuses on Bayesian model selection and the assimilation of training data or content, with a special emphasis on the order in which data are ingested. A key move - in the ensuing schemes - is to place priors on the selection of models, based upon expected free energy. In this setting, expected free energy reduces to a constrained mutual information, where the constraints inherit from priors over outcomes (i.e., preferred outcomes). The resulting scheme is first used to perform image classification on the MNIST dataset to illustrate the basic idea, and then tested on a more challenging problem of discovering models with dynamics, using a simple sprite-based visual disentanglement paradigm and the Tower of Hanoi (cf., blocks world) problem. In these examples, generative models are constructed autodidactically to recover (i.e., disentangle) the factorial structure of latent states - and their characteristic paths or dynamics.

Realising Synthetic Active Inference Agents, Part I: Epistemic Objectives and Graphical Specification Language

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) is a theoretical framework for describing how (intelligent) systems self-organise into coherent, stable structures by minimising a free energy functional. Active Inference (AIF) is a corollary of the FEP that specifically details how systems that are able to plan for the future (agents) function by minimising particular free energy functionals that incorporate information seeking components. This paper is the first in a series of two where we derive a synthetic version of AIF on free form factor graphs. The present paper focuses on deriving a local version of the free energy functionals used for AIF. This enables us to construct a version of AIF which applies to arbitrary graphical models and interfaces with prior work on message passing algorithms. The resulting messages are derived in our companion paper. We also identify a gap in the graphical notation used for factor graphs. While factor graphs are great at expressing a generative model, they have so far been unable to specify the full optimisation problem including constraints. To solve this problem we develop Constrained Forney-style Factor Graph (CFFG) notation which permits a fully graphical description of variational inference objectives. We then proceed to show how CFFG's can be used to reconstruct prior algorithms for AIF as well as derive new ones. The latter is demonstrated by deriving an algorithm that permits direct policy inference for AIF agents, circumventing a long standing scaling issue that has so far hindered the application of AIF in industrial settings. We demonstrate our algorithm on the classic T-maze task and show that it reproduces the information seeking behaviour that is a hallmark feature of AIF.

Realising Synthetic Active Inference Agents, Part II: Variational Message Updates

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) describes (biological) agents as minimising a variational Free Energy (FE) with respect to a generative model of their environment. Active Inference (AIF) is a corollary of the FEP that describes how agents explore and exploit their environment by minimising an expected FE objective. In two related papers, we describe a scalable, epistemic approach to synthetic AIF agents, by message passing on free-form Forney-style Factor Graphs (FFGs). A companion paper (part I) introduces a Constrained FFG (CFFG) notation that visually represents (generalised) FE objectives for AIF. The current paper (part II) derives message passing algorithms that minimise (generalised) FE objectives on a CFFG by variational calculus. A comparison between simulated Bethe and generalised FE agents illustrates how synthetic AIF induces epistemic behaviour on a T-maze navigation task. With a full message passing account of synthetic AIF agents, it becomes possible to derive and reuse message updates across models and move closer to industrial applications of synthetic AIF.

Designing Ecosystems of Intelligence from First Principles

This white paper lays out a vision of research and development in the field of artificial intelligence for the next decade (and beyond). Its denouement is a cyber-physical ecosystem of natural and synthetic sense-making, in which humans are integral participants$\unicode{x2014}$what we call ''shared intelligence''. This vision is premised on active inference, a formulation of adaptive behavior that can be read as a physics of intelligence, and which inherits from the physics of self-organization. In this context, we understand intelligence as the capacity to accumulate evidence for a generative model of one's sensed world$\unicode{x2014}$also known as self-evidencing. Formally, this corresponds to maximizing (Bayesian) model evidence, via belief updating over several scales: i.e., inference, learning, and model selection. Operationally, this self-evidencing can be realized via (variational) message passing or belief propagation on a factor graph. Crucially, active inference foregrounds an existential imperative of intelligent systems; namely, curiosity or the resolution of uncertainty. This same imperative underwrites belief sharing in ensembles of agents, in which certain aspects (i.e., factors) of each agent's generative world model provide a common ground or frame of reference. Active inference plays a foundational role in this ecology of belief sharing$\unicode{x2014}$leading to a formal account of collective intelligence that rests on shared narratives and goals. We also consider the kinds of communication protocols that must be developed to enable such an ecosystem of intelligences and motivate the development of a shared hyper-spatial modeling language and transaction protocol, as a first$\unicode{x2014}$and key$\unicode{x2014}$step towards such an ecology.

Variational message passing for online polynomial NARMAX identification

We propose a variational Bayesian inference procedure for online nonlinear system identification. For each output observation, a set of parameter posterior distributions is updated, which is then used to form a posterior predictive distribution for future outputs. We focus on the class of polynomial NARMAX models, which we cast into probabilistic form and represent in terms of a Forney-style factor graph. Inference in this graph is efficiently performed by a variational message passing algorithm. We show empirically that our variational Bayesian estimator outperforms an online recursive least-squares estimator, most notably in small sample size settings and low noise regimes, and performs on par with an iterative least-squares estimator trained offline.

AIDA: An Active Inference-based Design Agent for Audio Processing Algorithms

In this paper we present AIDA, which is an active inference-based agent that iteratively designs a personalized audio processing algorithm through situated interactions with a human client. The target application of AIDA is to propose on-the-spot the most interesting alternative values for the tuning parameters of a hearing aid (HA) algorithm, whenever a HA client is not satisfied with their HA performance. AIDA interprets searching for the "most interesting alternative" as an issue of optimal (acoustic) context-aware Bayesian trial design. In computational terms, AIDA is realized as an active inference-based agent with an Expected Free Energy criterion for trial design. This type of architecture is inspired by neuro-economic models on efficient (Bayesian) trial design in brains and implies that AIDA comprises generative probabilistic models for acoustic signals and user responses. We propose a novel generative model for acoustic signals as a sum of time-varying auto-regressive filters and a user response model based on a Gaussian Process Classifier. The full AIDA agent has been implemented in a factor graph for the generative model and all tasks (parameter learning, acoustic context classification, trial design, etc.) are realized by variational message passing on the factor graph. All verification and validation experiments and demonstrations are freely accessible at our GitHub repository.

Active Inference and Epistemic Value in Graphical Models

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) postulates that biological agents perceive and interact with their environment in order to minimize a Variational Free Energy (VFE) with respect to a generative model of their environment. The inference of a policy (future control sequence) according to the FEP is known as Active Inference (AIF). The AIF literature describes multiple VFE objectives for policy planning that lead to epistemic (information-seeking) behavior. However, most objectives have limited modeling flexibility. This paper approaches epistemic behavior from a constrained Bethe Free Energy (CBFE) perspective. Crucially, variational optimization of the CBFE can be expressed in terms of message passing on free-form generative models. The key intuition behind the CBFE is that we impose a point-mass constraint on predicted outcomes, which explicitly encodes the assumption that the agent will make observations in the future. We interpret the CBFE objective in terms of its constituent behavioral drives. We then illustrate resulting behavior of the CBFE by planning and interacting with a simulated T-maze environment. Simulations for the T-maze task illustrate how the CBFE agent exhibits an epistemic drive, and actively plans ahead to account for the impact of predicted outcomes. Compared to an EFE agent, the CBFE agent incurs expected reward in significantly more environmental scenarios. We conclude that CBFE optimization by message passing suggests a general mechanism for epistemic-aware AIF in free-form generative models.