A Probabilistic Inference Approach to Inference-Time Scaling of LLMs using Particle-Based Monte Carlo Methods

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

Can AI Relate: Testing Large Language Model Response for Mental Health Support

Large language models (LLMs) are already being piloted for clinical use in hospital systems like NYU Langone, Dana-Farber and the NHS. A proposed deployment use case is psychotherapy, where a LLM-powered chatbot can treat a patient undergoing a mental health crisis. Deployment of LLMs for mental health response could hypothetically broaden access to psychotherapy and provide new possibilities for personalizing care. However, recent high-profile failures, like damaging dieting advice offered by the Tessa chatbot to patients with eating disorders, have led to doubt about their reliability in high-stakes and safety-critical settings. In this work, we develop an evaluation framework for determining whether LLM response is a viable and ethical path forward for the automation of mental health treatment. Using human evaluation with trained clinicians and automatic quality-of-care metrics grounded in psychology research, we compare the responses provided by peer-to-peer responders to those provided by a state-of-the-art LLM. We show that LLMs like GPT-4 use implicit and explicit cues to infer patient demographics like race. We then show that there are statistically significant discrepancies between patient subgroups: Responses to Black posters consistently have lower empathy than for any other demographic group (2%-13% lower than the control group). Promisingly, we do find that the manner in which responses are generated significantly impacts the quality of the response. We conclude by proposing safety guidelines for the potential deployment of LLMs for mental health response.

Improving Black-box Robustness with In-Context Rewriting

Machine learning models often excel on in-distribution (ID) data but struggle with unseen out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Most techniques for improving OOD robustness are not applicable to settings where the model is effectively a black box, such as when the weights are frozen, retraining is costly, or the model is leveraged via an API. Test-time augmentation (TTA) is a simple post-hoc technique for improving robustness that sidesteps black-box constraints by aggregating predictions across multiple augmentations of the test input. TTA has seen limited use in NLP due to the challenge of generating effective natural language augmentations. In this work, we propose LLM-TTA, which uses LLM-generated augmentations as TTA's augmentation function. LLM-TTA outperforms conventional augmentation functions across sentiment, toxicity, and news classification tasks for BERT and T5 models, with BERT's OOD robustness improving by an average of 4.30 percentage points without regressing average ID performance. We explore selectively augmenting inputs based on prediction entropy to reduce the rate of expensive LLM augmentations, allowing us to maintain performance gains while reducing the average number of generated augmentations by 57.76%. LLM-TTA is agnostic to the task model architecture, does not require OOD labels, and is effective across low and high-resource settings. We share our data, models, and code for reproducibility.

OpenXAI: Towards a Transparent Evaluation of Model Explanations

While several types of post hoc explanation methods (e.g., feature attribution methods) have been proposed in recent literature, there is little to no work on systematically benchmarking these methods in an efficient and transparent manner. Here, we introduce OpenXAI, a comprehensive and extensible open source framework for evaluating and benchmarking post hoc explanation methods. OpenXAI comprises of the following key components: (i) a flexible synthetic data generator and a collection of diverse real-world datasets, pre-trained models, and state-of-the-art feature attribution methods, (ii) open-source implementations of twenty-two quantitative metrics for evaluating faithfulness, stability (robustness), and fairness of explanation methods, and (iii) the first ever public XAI leaderboards to benchmark explanations. OpenXAI is easily extensible, as users can readily evaluate custom explanation methods and incorporate them into our leaderboards. Overall, OpenXAI provides an automated end-to-end pipeline that not only simplifies and standardizes the evaluation of post hoc explanation methods, but also promotes transparency and reproducibility in benchmarking these methods. OpenXAI datasets and data loaders, implementations of state-of-the-art explanation methods and evaluation metrics, as well as leaderboards are publicly available at https://open-xai.github.io/.