Expectation vs. Reality: Towards Verification of Psychological Games

Game theory provides an effective way to model strategic interactions among rational agents. In the context of formal verification, these ideas can be used to produce guarantees on the correctness of multi-agent systems, with a diverse range of applications from computer security to autonomous driving. Psychological games (PGs) were developed as a way to model and analyse agents with belief-dependent motivations, opening up the possibility to model how human emotions can influence behaviour. In PGs, players' utilities depend not only on what actually happens (which strategies players choose to adopt), but also on what the players had expected to happen (their belief as to the strategies that would be played). Despite receiving much attention in fields such as economics and psychology, very little consideration has been given to their applicability to problems in computer science, nor to practical algorithms and tool support. In this paper, we start to bridge that gap, proposing methods to solve PGs and implementing them within PRISM-games, a formal verification tool for stochastic games. We discuss how to model these games, highlight specific challenges for their analysis and illustrate the usefulness of our approach on several case studies, including human behaviour in traffic scenarios.

Learning Provably Robust Policies in Uncertain Parametric Environments

We present a data-driven approach for learning MDP policies that are robust across stochastic environments whose transition probabilities are defined by parameters with an unknown distribution. We produce probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantees for the performance of these learned policies in a new, unseen environment over the unknown distribution. Our approach is based on finite samples of the MDP environments, for each of which we build an approximation of the model as an interval MDP, by exploring a set of generated trajectories. We use the built approximations to synthesise a single policy that performs well (meets given requirements) across the sampled environments, and furthermore bound its risk (of not meeting the given requirements) when deployed in an unseen environment. Our procedure offers a trade-off between the guaranteed performance of the learned policy and the risk of not meeting the guarantee in an unseen environment. Our approach exploits knowledge of the environment's state space and graph structure, and we show how additional knowledge of its parametric structure can be leveraged to optimize learning and to obtain tighter guarantees from less samples. We evaluate our approach on a diverse range of established benchmarks, demonstrating that we can generate highly performing and robust policies, along with guarantees that tightly quantify their performance and the associated risk.

Safe POMDP Online Planning among Dynamic Agents via Adaptive Conformal Prediction

Online planning for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provides efficient techniques for robot decision-making under uncertainty. However, existing methods fall short of preventing safety violations in dynamic environments. This work presents a novel safe POMDP online planning approach that offers probabilistic safety guarantees amidst environments populated by multiple dynamic agents. Our approach utilizes data-driven trajectory prediction models of dynamic agents and applies Adaptive Conformal Prediction (ACP) for assessing the uncertainties in these predictions. Leveraging the obtained ACP-based trajectory predictions, our approach constructs safety shields on-the-fly to prevent unsafe actions within POMDP online planning. Through experimental evaluation in various dynamic environments using real-world pedestrian trajectory data, the proposed approach has been shown to effectively maintain probabilistic safety guarantees while accommodating up to hundreds of dynamic agents.

HSVI-based Online Minimax Strategies for Partially Observable Stochastic Games with Neural Perception Mechanisms

We consider a variant of continuous-state partially-observable stochastic games with neural perception mechanisms and an asymmetric information structure. One agent has partial information, with the observation function implemented as a neural network, while the other agent is assumed to have full knowledge of the state. We present, for the first time, an efficient online method to compute an $\varepsilon$-minimax strategy profile, which requires only one linear program to be solved for each agent at every stage, instead of a complex estimation of opponent counterfactual values. For the partially-informed agent, we propose a continual resolving approach which uses lower bounds, pre-computed offline with heuristic search value iteration (HSVI), instead of opponent counterfactual values. This inherits the soundness of continual resolving at the cost of pre-computing the bound. For the fully-informed agent, we propose an inferred-belief strategy, where the agent maintains an inferred belief about the belief of the partially-informed agent based on (offline) upper bounds from HSVI, guaranteeing $\varepsilon$-distance to the value of the game at the initial belief known to both agents.

Learning Algorithms for Verification of Markov Decision Processes

We present a general framework for applying learning algorithms and heuristical guidance to the verification of Markov decision processes (MDPs). The primary goal of our techniques is to improve performance by avoiding an exhaustive exploration of the state space, instead focussing on particularly relevant areas of the system, guided by heuristics. Our work builds on the previous results of Br{\'{a}}zdil et al., significantly extending it as well as refining several details and fixing errors. The presented framework focuses on probabilistic reachability, which is a core problem in verification, and is instantiated in two distinct scenarios. The first assumes that full knowledge of the MDP is available, in particular precise transition probabilities. It performs a heuristic-driven partial exploration of the model, yielding precise lower and upper bounds on the required probability. The second tackles the case where we may only sample the MDP without knowing the exact transition dynamics. Here, we obtain probabilistic guarantees, again in terms of both the lower and upper bounds, which provides efficient stopping criteria for the approximation. In particular, the latter is an extension of statistical model-checking (SMC) for unbounded properties in MDPs. In contrast to other related approaches, we do not restrict our attention to time-bounded (finite-horizon) or discounted properties, nor assume any particular structural properties of the MDP.

Partially Observable Stochastic Games with Neural Perception Mechanisms

Stochastic games are a well established model for multi-agent sequential decision making under uncertainty. In reality, though, agents have only partial observability of their environment, which makes the problem computationally challenging, even in the single-agent setting of partially observable Markov decision processes. Furthermore, in practice, agents increasingly perceive their environment using data-driven approaches such as neural networks trained on continuous data. To tackle this problem, we propose the model of neuro-symbolic partially-observable stochastic games (NS-POSGs), a variant of continuous-space concurrent stochastic games that explicitly incorporates perception mechanisms. We focus on a one-sided setting, comprising a partially-informed agent with discrete, data-driven observations and a fully-informed agent with continuous observations. We present a new point-based method, called one-sided NS-HSVI, for approximating values of one-sided NS-POSGs and implement it based on the popular particle-based beliefs, showing that it has closed forms for computing values of interest. We provide experimental results to demonstrate the practical applicability of our method for neural networks whose preimage is in polyhedral form.

Safe POMDP Online Planning via Shielding

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) have been widely used in many robotic applications for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. POMDP online planning algorithms such as Partially Observable Monte-Carlo Planning (POMCP) can solve very large POMDPs with the goal of maximizing the expected return. But the resulting policies cannot provide safety guarantees that are imperative for real-world safety-critical tasks (e.g., autonomous driving). In this work, we consider safety requirements represented as almost-sure reach-avoid specifications (i.e., the probability to reach a set of goal states is one and the probability to reach a set of unsafe states is zero). We compute shields that restrict unsafe actions violating almost-sure reach-avoid specifications. We then integrate these shields into the POMCP algorithm for safe POMDP online planning. We propose four distinct shielding methods, differing in how the shields are computed and integrated, including factored variants designed to improve scalability. Experimental results on a set of benchmark domains demonstrate that the proposed shielding methods successfully guarantee safety (unlike the baseline POMCP without shielding) on large POMDPs, with negligible impact on the runtime for online planning.

Using Reed-Muller Codes for Classification with Rejection and Recovery

When deploying classifiers in the real world, users expect them to respond to inputs appropriately. However, traditional classifiers are not equipped to handle inputs which lie far from the distribution they were trained on. Malicious actors can exploit this defect by making adversarial perturbations designed to cause the classifier to give an incorrect output. Classification-with-rejection methods attempt to solve this problem by allowing networks to refuse to classify an input in which they have low confidence. This works well for strongly adversarial examples, but also leads to the rejection of weakly perturbed images, which intuitively could be correctly classified. To address these issues, we propose Reed-Muller Aggregation Networks (RMAggNet), a classifier inspired by Reed-Muller error-correction codes which can correct and reject inputs. This paper shows that RMAggNet can minimise incorrectness while maintaining good correctness over multiple adversarial attacks at different perturbation budgets by leveraging the ability to correct errors in the classification process. This provides an alternative classification-with-rejection method which can reduce the amount of additional processing in situations where a small number of incorrect classifications are permissible.

Multi-Agent Verification and Control with Probabilistic Model Checking

Probabilistic model checking is a technique for formal automated reasoning about software or hardware systems that operate in the context of uncertainty or stochasticity. It builds upon ideas and techniques from a diverse range of fields, from logic, automata and graph theory, to optimisation, numerical methods and control. In recent years, probabilistic model checking has also been extended to integrate ideas from game theory, notably using models such as stochastic games and solution concepts such as equilibria, to formally verify the interaction of multiple rational agents with distinct objectives. This provides a means to reason flexibly about agents acting in either an adversarial or a collaborative fashion, and opens up opportunities to tackle new problems within, for example, artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomous systems. In this paper, we summarise some of the advances in this area, and highlight applications for which they have already been used. We discuss how the strengths of probabilistic model checking apply, or have the potential to apply, to the multi-agent setting and outline some of the key challenges required to make further progress in this field.

Point-based Value Iteration for Neuro-Symbolic POMDPs

Neuro-symbolic artificial intelligence is an emerging area that combines traditional symbolic techniques with neural networks. In this paper, we consider its application to sequential decision making under uncertainty. We introduce neuro-symbolic partially observable Markov decision processes (NS-POMDPs), which model an agent that perceives a continuous-state environment using a neural network and makes decisions symbolically, and study the problem of optimising discounted cumulative rewards. This requires functions over continuous-state beliefs, for which we propose a novel piecewise linear and convex representation (P-PWLC) in terms of polyhedra covering the continuous-state space and value vectors, and extend Bellman backups to this representation. We prove the convexity and continuity of value functions and present two value iteration algorithms that ensure finite representability by exploiting the underlying structure of the continuous-state model and the neural perception mechanism. The first is a classical (exact) value iteration algorithm extending $\alpha$-functions of Porta et al (2006) to the P-PWLC representation for continuous-state spaces. The second is a point-based (approximate) method called NS-HSVI, which uses the P-PWLC representation and belief-value induced functions to approximate value functions from below and above for two types of beliefs, particle-based and region-based. Using a prototype implementation, we show the practical applicability of our approach on two case studies that employ (trained) ReLU neural networks as perception functions, dynamic car parking and an aircraft collision avoidance system, by synthesising (approximately) optimal strategies. An experimental comparison with the finite-state POMDP solver SARSOP demonstrates that NS-HSVI is more robust to particle disturbances.