WaveGNN: Modeling Irregular Multivariate Time Series for Accurate Predictions

Accurately modeling and analyzing time series data is crucial for downstream applications across various fields, including healthcare, finance, astronomy, and epidemiology. However, real-world time series often exhibit irregularities such as misaligned timestamps, missing entries, and variable sampling rates, complicating their analysis. Existing approaches often rely on imputation, which can introduce biases. A few approaches that directly model irregularity tend to focus exclusively on either capturing intra-series patterns or inter-series relationships, missing the benefits of integrating both. To this end, we present WaveGNN, a novel framework designed to directly (i.e., no imputation) embed irregularly sampled multivariate time series data for accurate predictions. WaveGNN utilizes a Transformer-based encoder to capture intra-series patterns by directly encoding the temporal dynamics of each time series. To capture inter-series relationships, WaveGNN uses a dynamic graph neural network model, where each node represents a sensor, and the edges capture the long- and short-term relationships between them. Our experimental results on real-world healthcare datasets demonstrate that WaveGNN consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, with an average relative improvement of 14.7% in F1-score when compared to the second-best baseline in cases with extreme sparsity. Our ablation studies reveal that both intra-series and inter-series modeling significantly contribute to this notable improvement.

Forecasting Unseen Points of Interest Visits Using Context and Proximity Priors

Understanding human mobility behavior is crucial for numerous applications, including crowd management, location-based recommendations, and the estimation of pandemic spread. Machine learning models can predict the Points of Interest (POIs) that individuals are likely to visit in the future by analyzing their historical visit patterns. Previous studies address this problem by learning a POI classifier, where each class corresponds to a POI. However, this limits their applicability to predict a new POI that was not in the training data, such as the opening of new restaurants. To address this challenge, we propose a model designed to predict a new POI outside the training data as long as its context is aligned with the user's interests. Unlike existing approaches that directly predict specific POIs, our model first forecasts the semantic context of potential future POIs, then combines this with a proximity-based prior probability distribution to determine the exact POI. Experimental results on real-world visit data demonstrate that our model outperforms baseline methods that do not account for semantic contexts, achieving a 17% improvement in accuracy. Notably, as new POIs are introduced over time, our model remains robust, exhibiting a lower decline rate in prediction accuracy compared to existing methods.

Towards Establishing Guaranteed Error for Learned Database Operations

Machine learning models have demonstrated substantial performance enhancements over non-learned alternatives in various fundamental data management operations, including indexing (locating items in an array), cardinality estimation (estimating the number of matching records in a database), and range-sum estimation (estimating aggregate attribute values for query-matched records). However, real-world systems frequently favor less efficient non-learned methods due to their ability to offer (worst-case) error guarantees - an aspect where learned approaches often fall short. The primary objective of these guarantees is to ensure system reliability, ensuring that the chosen approach consistently delivers the desired level of accuracy across all databases. In this paper, we embark on the first theoretical study of such guarantees for learned methods, presenting the necessary conditions for such guarantees to hold when using machine learning to perform indexing, cardinality estimation and range-sum estimation. Specifically, we present the first known lower bounds on the model size required to achieve the desired accuracy for these three key database operations. Our results bound the required model size for given average and worst-case errors in performing database operations, serving as the first theoretical guidelines governing how model size must change based on data size to be able to guarantee an accuracy level. More broadly, our established guarantees pave the way for the broader adoption and integration of learned models into real-world systems.

TrajGPT: Controlled Synthetic Trajectory Generation Using a Multitask Transformer-Based Spatiotemporal Model

Human mobility modeling from GPS-trajectories and synthetic trajectory generation are crucial for various applications, such as urban planning, disaster management and epidemiology. Both of these tasks often require filling gaps in a partially specified sequence of visits - a new problem that we call "controlled" synthetic trajectory generation. Existing methods for next-location prediction or synthetic trajectory generation cannot solve this problem as they lack the mechanisms needed to constrain the generated sequences of visits. Moreover, existing approaches (1) frequently treat space and time as independent factors, an assumption that fails to hold true in real-world scenarios, and (2) suffer from challenges in accuracy of temporal prediction as they fail to deal with mixed distributions and the inter-relationships of different modes with latent variables (e.g., day-of-the-week). These limitations become even more pronounced when the task involves filling gaps within sequences instead of solely predicting the next visit. We introduce TrajGPT, a transformer-based, multi-task, joint spatiotemporal generative model to address these issues. Taking inspiration from large language models, TrajGPT poses the problem of controlled trajectory generation as that of text infilling in natural language. TrajGPT integrates the spatial and temporal models in a transformer architecture through a Bayesian probability model that ensures that the gaps in a visit sequence are filled in a spatiotemporally consistent manner. Our experiments on public and private datasets demonstrate that TrajGPT not only excels in controlled synthetic visit generation but also outperforms competing models in next-location prediction tasks - Relatively, TrajGPT achieves a 26-fold improvement in temporal accuracy while retaining more than 98% of spatial accuracy on average.

Poly2Vec: Polymorphic Encoding of Geospatial Objects for Spatial Reasoning with Deep Neural Networks

Encoding geospatial data is crucial for enabling machine learning (ML) models to perform tasks that require spatial reasoning, such as identifying the topological relationships between two different geospatial objects. However, existing encoding methods are limited as they are typically customized to handle only specific types of spatial data, which impedes their applicability across different downstream tasks where multiple data types coexist. To address this, we introduce Poly2Vec, an encoding framework that unifies the modeling of different geospatial objects, including 2D points, polylines, and polygons, irrespective of the downstream task. We leverage the power of the 2D Fourier transform to encode useful spatial properties, such as shape and location, from geospatial objects into fixed-length vectors. These vectors are then inputted into neural network models for spatial reasoning tasks.This unified approach eliminates the need to develop and train separate models for each distinct spatial type. We evaluate Poly2Vec on both synthetic and real datasets of mixed geometry types and verify its consistent performance across several downstream spatial reasoning tasks.

Geo-Llama: Leveraging LLMs for Human Mobility Trajectory Generation with Spatiotemporal Constraints

Simulating human mobility data is essential for various application domains, including transportation, urban planning, and epidemic control, since real data are often inaccessible to researchers due to expensive costs and privacy issues. Several existing deep generative solutions propose learning from real trajectories to generate synthetic ones. Despite the progress, most of them suffer from training stability issues and scale poorly with growing data size. More importantly, they generally lack control mechanisms to steer the generated trajectories based on spatiotemporal constraints such as fixing specific visits. To address such limitations, we formally define the controlled trajectory generation problem with spatiotemporal constraints and propose Geo-Llama. This novel LLM-inspired framework enforces explicit visit constraints in a contextually coherent way. It fine-tunes pre-trained LLMs on trajectories with a visit-wise permutation strategy where each visit corresponds to a time and location. This enables the model to capture the spatiotemporal patterns regardless of visit orders and allows flexible and in-context constraint integration through prompts during generation. Extensive experiments on real-world and synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of Geo-Llama, demonstrating its versatility and robustness in handling a broad range of constraints to generate more realistic trajectories compared to existing methods.

Dynamic GNNs for Precise Seizure Detection and Classification from EEG Data

Diagnosing epilepsy requires accurate seizure detection and classification, but traditional manual EEG signal analysis is resource-intensive. Meanwhile, automated algorithms often overlook EEG's geometric and semantic properties critical for interpreting brain activity. This paper introduces NeuroGNN, a dynamic Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework that captures the dynamic interplay between the EEG electrode locations and the semantics of their corresponding brain regions. The specific brain region where an electrode is placed critically shapes the nature of captured EEG signals. Each brain region governs distinct cognitive functions, emotions, and sensory processing, influencing both the semantic and spatial relationships within the EEG data. Understanding and modeling these intricate brain relationships are essential for accurate and meaningful insights into brain activity. This is precisely where the proposed NeuroGNN framework excels by dynamically constructing a graph that encapsulates these evolving spatial, temporal, semantic, and taxonomic correlations to improve precision in seizure detection and classification. Our extensive experiments with real-world data demonstrate that NeuroGNN significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art models.

BiasBuster: a Neural Approach for Accurate Estimation of Population Statistics using Biased Location Data

While extremely useful (e.g., for COVID-19 forecasting and policy-making, urban mobility analysis and marketing, and obtaining business insights), location data collected from mobile devices often contain data from a biased population subset, with some communities over or underrepresented in the collected datasets. As a result, aggregate statistics calculated from such datasets (as is done by various companies including Safegraph, Google, and Facebook), while ignoring the bias, leads to an inaccurate representation of population statistics. Such statistics will not only be generally inaccurate, but the error will disproportionately impact different population subgroups (e.g., because they ignore the underrepresented communities). This has dire consequences, as these datasets are used for sensitive decision-making such as COVID-19 policymaking. This paper tackles the problem of providing accurate population statistics using such biased datasets. We show that statistical debiasing, although in some cases useful, often fails to improve accuracy. We then propose BiasBuster, a neural network approach that utilizes the correlations between population statistics and location characteristics to provide accurate estimates of population statistics. Extensive experiments on real-world data show that BiasBuster improves accuracy by up to 2 times in general and up to 3 times for underrepresented populations.

Holistic Survey of Privacy and Fairness in Machine Learning

Privacy and fairness are two crucial pillars of responsible Artificial Intelligence (AI) and trustworthy Machine Learning (ML). Each objective has been independently studied in the literature with the aim of reducing utility loss in achieving them. Despite the significant interest attracted from both academia and industry, there remains an immediate demand for more in-depth research to unravel how these two objectives can be simultaneously integrated into ML models. As opposed to well-accepted trade-offs, i.e., privacy-utility and fairness-utility, the interrelation between privacy and fairness is not well-understood. While some works suggest a trade-off between the two objective functions, there are others that demonstrate the alignment of these functions in certain scenarios. To fill this research gap, we provide a thorough review of privacy and fairness in ML, including supervised, unsupervised, semi-supervised, and reinforcement learning. After examining and consolidating the literature on both objectives, we present a holistic survey on the impact of privacy on fairness, the impact of fairness on privacy, existing architectures, their interaction in application domains, and algorithms that aim to achieve both objectives while minimizing the utility sacrificed. Finally, we identify research challenges in achieving privacy and fairness concurrently in ML, particularly focusing on large language models.

Learning Dynamic Graphs from All Contextual Information for Accurate Point-of-Interest Visit Forecasting

Forecasting the number of visits to Points-of-Interest (POI) in an urban area is critical for planning and decision-making for various application domains, from urban planning and transportation management to public health and social studies. Although this forecasting problem can be formulated as a multivariate time-series forecasting task, the current approaches cannot fully exploit the ever-changing multi-context correlations among POIs. Therefore, we propose Busyness Graph Neural Network (BysGNN), a temporal graph neural network designed to learn and uncover the underlying multi-context correlations between POIs for accurate visit forecasting. Unlike other approaches where only time-series data is used to learn a dynamic graph, BysGNN utilizes all contextual information and time-series data to learn an accurate dynamic graph representation. By incorporating all contextual, temporal, and spatial signals, we observe a significant improvement in our forecasting accuracy over state-of-the-art forecasting models in our experiments with real-world datasets across the United States.