TrajGPT: Controlled Synthetic Trajectory Generation Using a Multitask Transformer-Based Spatiotemporal Model

Human mobility modeling from GPS-trajectories and synthetic trajectory generation are crucial for various applications, such as urban planning, disaster management and epidemiology. Both of these tasks often require filling gaps in a partially specified sequence of visits - a new problem that we call "controlled" synthetic trajectory generation. Existing methods for next-location prediction or synthetic trajectory generation cannot solve this problem as they lack the mechanisms needed to constrain the generated sequences of visits. Moreover, existing approaches (1) frequently treat space and time as independent factors, an assumption that fails to hold true in real-world scenarios, and (2) suffer from challenges in accuracy of temporal prediction as they fail to deal with mixed distributions and the inter-relationships of different modes with latent variables (e.g., day-of-the-week). These limitations become even more pronounced when the task involves filling gaps within sequences instead of solely predicting the next visit. We introduce TrajGPT, a transformer-based, multi-task, joint spatiotemporal generative model to address these issues. Taking inspiration from large language models, TrajGPT poses the problem of controlled trajectory generation as that of text infilling in natural language. TrajGPT integrates the spatial and temporal models in a transformer architecture through a Bayesian probability model that ensures that the gaps in a visit sequence are filled in a spatiotemporally consistent manner. Our experiments on public and private datasets demonstrate that TrajGPT not only excels in controlled synthetic visit generation but also outperforms competing models in next-location prediction tasks - Relatively, TrajGPT achieves a 26-fold improvement in temporal accuracy while retaining more than 98% of spatial accuracy on average.

A System for Critical Facility and Resource Optimization in Disaster Management and Planning

Disruptions to medical infrastructure during disasters pose significant risks to critically ill patients with advanced chronic kidney disease or end-stage renal disease. To enhance patient access to dialysis treatment under such conditions, it is crucial to assess the vulnerabilities of critical care facilities to hazardous events. This study proposes optimization models for patient reallocation and the strategic placement of temporary medical facilities to bolster the resilience of the critical care system, with a focus on equitable outcomes. Utilizing human mobility data from Texas, we evaluate patient access to critical care and dialysis centers under simulated hazard scenarios. The proposed bio-inspired optimization model, based on the Ant Colony optimization method, efficiently reallocates patients to mitigate disrupted access to dialysis facilities. The model outputs offer valuable insights into patient and hospital preparedness for disasters. Overall, the study presents a data-driven, analytics-based decision support tool designed to proactively mitigate potential disruptions in access to critical care facilities during disasters, tailored to the needs of health officials, emergency managers, and hospital system administrators in both the private and public sectors.

Back to Bayesics: Uncovering Human Mobility Distributions and Anomalies with an Integrated Statistical and Neural Framework

Existing methods for anomaly detection often fall short due to their inability to handle the complexity, heterogeneity, and high dimensionality inherent in real-world mobility data. In this paper, we propose DeepBayesic, a novel framework that integrates Bayesian principles with deep neural networks to model the underlying multivariate distributions from sparse and complex datasets. Unlike traditional models, DeepBayesic is designed to manage heterogeneous inputs, accommodating both continuous and categorical data to provide a more comprehensive understanding of mobility patterns. The framework features customized neural density estimators and hybrid architectures, allowing for flexibility in modeling diverse feature distributions and enabling the use of specialized neural networks tailored to different data types. Our approach also leverages agent embeddings for personalized anomaly detection, enhancing its ability to distinguish between normal and anomalous behaviors for individual agents. We evaluate our approach on several mobility datasets, demonstrating significant improvements over state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods. Our results indicate that incorporating personalization and advanced sequence modeling techniques can substantially enhance the ability to detect subtle and complex anomalies in spatiotemporal event sequences.

NUMOSIM: A Synthetic Mobility Dataset with Anomaly Detection Benchmarks

Collecting real-world mobility data is challenging. It is often fraught with privacy concerns, logistical difficulties, and inherent biases. Moreover, accurately annotating anomalies in large-scale data is nearly impossible, as it demands meticulous effort to distinguish subtle and complex patterns. These challenges significantly impede progress in geospatial anomaly detection research by restricting access to reliable data and complicating the rigorous evaluation, comparison, and benchmarking of methodologies. To address these limitations, we introduce a synthetic mobility dataset, NUMOSIM, that provides a controlled, ethical, and diverse environment for benchmarking anomaly detection techniques. NUMOSIM simulates a wide array of realistic mobility scenarios, encompassing both typical and anomalous behaviours, generated through advanced deep learning models trained on real mobility data. This approach allows NUMOSIM to accurately replicate the complexities of real-world movement patterns while strategically injecting anomalies to challenge and evaluate detection algorithms based on how effectively they capture the interplay between demographic, geospatial, and temporal factors. Our goal is to advance geospatial mobility analysis by offering a realistic benchmark for improving anomaly detection and mobility modeling techniques. To support this, we provide open access to the NUMOSIM dataset, along with comprehensive documentation, evaluation metrics, and benchmark results.

Learning Citywide Patterns of Life from Trajectory Monitoring

The recent proliferation of real-world human mobility datasets has catalyzed geospatial and transportation research in trajectory prediction, demand forecasting, travel time estimation, and anomaly detection. However, these datasets also enable, more broadly, a descriptive analysis of intricate systems of human mobility. We formally define patterns of life analysis as a natural, explainable extension of online unsupervised anomaly detection, where we not only monitor a data stream for anomalies but also explicitly extract normal patterns over time. To learn patterns of life, we adapt Grow When Required (GWR) episodic memory from research in computational biology and neurorobotics to a new domain of geospatial analysis. This biologically-inspired neural network, related to self-organizing maps (SOM), constructs a set of "memories" or prototype traffic patterns incrementally as it iterates over the GPS stream. It then compares each new observation to its prior experiences, inducing an online, unsupervised clustering and anomaly detection on the data. We mine patterns-of-interest from the Porto taxi dataset, including both major public holidays and newly-discovered transportation anomalies, such as festivals and concerts which, to our knowledge, have not been previously acknowledged or reported in prior work. We anticipate that the capability to incrementally learn normal and abnormal road transportation behavior will be useful in many domains, including smart cities, autonomous vehicles, and urban planning and management.

Meta-Learning over Time for Destination Prediction Tasks

A need to understand and predict vehicles' behavior underlies both public and private goals in the transportation domain, including urban planning and management, ride-sharing services, and intelligent transportation systems. Individuals' preferences and intended destinations vary throughout the day, week, and year: for example, bars are most popular in the evenings, and beaches are most popular in the summer. Despite this principle, we note that recent studies on a popular benchmark dataset from Porto, Portugal have found, at best, only marginal improvements in predictive performance from incorporating temporal information. We propose an approach based on hypernetworks, a variant of meta-learning ("learning to learn") in which a neural network learns to change its own weights in response to an input. In our case, the weights responsible for destination prediction vary with the metadata, in particular the time, of the input trajectory. The time-conditioned weights notably improve the model's error relative to ablation studies and comparable prior work, and we confirm our hypothesis that knowledge of time should improve prediction of a vehicle's intended destination.