Literature Meets Data: A Synergistic Approach to Hypothesis Generation

AI holds promise for transforming scientific processes, including hypothesis generation. Prior work on hypothesis generation can be broadly categorized into theory-driven and data-driven approaches. While both have proven effective in generating novel and plausible hypotheses, it remains an open question whether they can complement each other. To address this, we develop the first method that combines literature-based insights with data to perform LLM-powered hypothesis generation. We apply our method on five different datasets and demonstrate that integrating literature and data outperforms other baselines (8.97\% over few-shot, 15.75\% over literature-based alone, and 3.37\% over data-driven alone). Additionally, we conduct the first human evaluation to assess the utility of LLM-generated hypotheses in assisting human decision-making on two challenging tasks: deception detection and AI generated content detection. Our results show that human accuracy improves significantly by 7.44\% and 14.19\% on these tasks, respectively. These findings suggest that integrating literature-based and data-driven approaches provides a comprehensive and nuanced framework for hypothesis generation and could open new avenues for scientific inquiry.

Causal Micro-Narratives

We present a novel approach to classify causal micro-narratives from text. These narratives are sentence-level explanations of the cause(s) and/or effect(s) of a target subject. The approach requires only a subject-specific ontology of causes and effects, and we demonstrate it with an application to inflation narratives. Using a human-annotated dataset spanning historical and contemporary US news articles for training, we evaluate several large language models (LLMs) on this multi-label classification task. The best-performing model--a fine-tuned Llama 3.1 8B--achieves F1 scores of 0.87 on narrative detection and 0.71 on narrative classification. Comprehensive error analysis reveals challenges arising from linguistic ambiguity and highlights how model errors often mirror human annotator disagreements. This research establishes a framework for extracting causal micro-narratives from real-world data, with wide-ranging applications to social science research.

CHIME: LLM-Assisted Hierarchical Organization of Scientific Studies for Literature Review Support

Literature review requires researchers to synthesize a large amount of information and is increasingly challenging as the scientific literature expands. In this work, we investigate the potential of LLMs for producing hierarchical organizations of scientific studies to assist researchers with literature review. We define hierarchical organizations as tree structures where nodes refer to topical categories and every node is linked to the studies assigned to that category. Our naive LLM-based pipeline for hierarchy generation from a set of studies produces promising yet imperfect hierarchies, motivating us to collect CHIME, an expert-curated dataset for this task focused on biomedicine. Given the challenging and time-consuming nature of building hierarchies from scratch, we use a human-in-the-loop process in which experts correct errors (both links between categories and study assignment) in LLM-generated hierarchies. CHIME contains 2,174 LLM-generated hierarchies covering 472 topics, and expert-corrected hierarchies for a subset of 100 topics. Expert corrections allow us to quantify LLM performance, and we find that while they are quite good at generating and organizing categories, their assignment of studies to categories could be improved. We attempt to train a corrector model with human feedback which improves study assignment by 12.6 F1 points. We release our dataset and models to encourage research on developing better assistive tools for literature review.

GPT-4V Cannot Generate Radiology Reports Yet

GPT-4V's purported strong multimodal abilities raise interests in using it to automate radiology report writing, but there lacks thorough evaluations. In this work, we perform a systematic evaluation of GPT-4V in generating radiology reports on two chest X-ray report datasets: MIMIC-CXR and IU X-Ray. We attempt to directly generate reports using GPT-4V through different prompting strategies and find that it fails terribly in both lexical metrics and clinical efficacy metrics. To understand the low performance, we decompose the task into two steps: 1) the medical image reasoning step of predicting medical condition labels from images; and 2) the report synthesis step of generating reports from (groundtruth) conditions. We show that GPT-4V's performance in image reasoning is consistently low across different prompts. In fact, the distributions of model-predicted labels remain constant regardless of which groundtruth conditions are present on the image, suggesting that the model is not interpreting chest X-rays meaningfully. Even when given groundtruth conditions in report synthesis, its generated reports are less correct and less natural-sounding than a finetuned LLaMA-2. Altogether, our findings cast doubt on the viability of using GPT-4V in a radiology workflow.

Towards a Client-Centered Assessment of LLM Therapists by Client Simulation

Although there is a growing belief that LLMs can be used as therapists, exploring LLMs' capabilities and inefficacy, particularly from the client's perspective, is limited. This work focuses on a client-centered assessment of LLM therapists with the involvement of simulated clients, a standard approach in clinical medical education. However, there are two challenges when applying the approach to assess LLM therapists at scale. Ethically, asking humans to frequently mimic clients and exposing them to potentially harmful LLM outputs can be risky and unsafe. Technically, it can be difficult to consistently compare the performances of different LLM therapists interacting with the same client. To this end, we adopt LLMs to simulate clients and propose ClientCAST, a client-centered approach to assessing LLM therapists by client simulation. Specifically, the simulated client is utilized to interact with LLM therapists and complete questionnaires related to the interaction. Based on the questionnaire results, we assess LLM therapists from three client-centered aspects: session outcome, therapeutic alliance, and self-reported feelings. We conduct experiments to examine the reliability of ClientCAST and use it to evaluate LLMs therapists implemented by Claude-3, GPT-3.5, LLaMA3-70B, and Mixtral 8*7B. Codes are released at https://github.com/wangjs9/ClientCAST.

The Impossibility of Fair LLMs

The need for fair AI is increasingly clear in the era of general-purpose systems such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and other large language models (LLMs). However, the increasing complexity of human-AI interaction and its social impacts have raised questions of how fairness standards could be applied. Here, we review the technical frameworks that machine learning researchers have used to evaluate fairness, such as group fairness and fair representations, and find that their application to LLMs faces inherent limitations. We show that each framework either does not logically extend to LLMs or presents a notion of fairness that is intractable for LLMs, primarily due to the multitudes of populations affected, sensitive attributes, and use cases. To address these challenges, we develop guidelines for the more realistic goal of achieving fairness in particular use cases: the criticality of context, the responsibility of LLM developers, and the need for stakeholder participation in an iterative process of design and evaluation. Moreover, it may eventually be possible and even necessary to use the general-purpose capabilities of AI systems to address fairness challenges as a form of scalable AI-assisted alignment.

Characterizing Multimodal Long-form Summarization: A Case Study on Financial Reports

As large language models (LLMs) expand the power of natural language processing to handle long inputs, rigorous and systematic analyses are necessary to understand their abilities and behavior. A salient application is summarization, due to its ubiquity and controversy (e.g., researchers have declared the death of summarization). In this paper, we use financial report summarization as a case study because financial reports not only are long but also use numbers and tables extensively. We propose a computational framework for characterizing multimodal long-form summarization and investigate the behavior of Claude 2.0/2.1, GPT-4/3.5, and Command. We find that GPT-3.5 and Command fail to perform this summarization task meaningfully. For Claude 2 and GPT-4, we analyze the extractiveness of the summary and identify a position bias in LLMs. This position bias disappears after shuffling the input for Claude, which suggests that Claude has the ability to recognize important information. We also conduct a comprehensive investigation on the use of numeric data in LLM-generated summaries and offer a taxonomy of numeric hallucination. We employ prompt engineering to improve GPT-4's use of numbers with limited success. Overall, our analyses highlight the strong capability of Claude 2 in handling long multimodal inputs compared to GPT-4.

Hypothesis Generation with Large Language Models

Effective generation of novel hypotheses is instrumental to scientific progress. So far, researchers have been the main powerhouse behind hypothesis generation by painstaking data analysis and thinking (also known as the Eureka moment). In this paper, we examine the potential of large language models (LLMs) to generate hypotheses. We focus on hypothesis generation based on data (i.e., labeled examples). To enable LLMs to handle arbitrarily long contexts, we generate initial hypotheses from a small number of examples and then update them iteratively to improve the quality of hypotheses. Inspired by multi-armed bandits, we design a reward function to inform the exploitation-exploration tradeoff in the update process. Our algorithm is able to generate hypotheses that enable much better predictive performance than few-shot prompting in classification tasks, improving accuracy by 31.7% on a synthetic dataset and by 13.9%, 3.3% and, 24.9% on three real-world datasets. We also outperform supervised learning by 12.8% and 11.2% on two challenging real-world datasets. Furthermore, we find that the generated hypotheses not only corroborate human-verified theories but also uncover new insights for the tasks.

Quantifying the Uniqueness of Donald Trump in Presidential Discourse

Does Donald Trump speak differently from other presidents? If so, in what ways? Are these differences confined to any single medium of communication? To investigate these questions, this paper introduces a novel metric of uniqueness based on large language models, develops a new lexicon for divisive speech, and presents a framework for comparing the lexical features of political opponents. Applying these tools to a variety of corpora of presidential speeches, we find considerable evidence that Trump's speech patterns diverge from those of all major party nominees for the presidency in recent history. Some notable findings include Trump's employment of particularly divisive and antagonistic language targeting of his political opponents and his patterns of repetition for emphasis. Furthermore, Trump is significantly more distinctive than his fellow Republicans, whose uniqueness values are comparably closer to those of the Democrats. These differences hold across a variety of measurement strategies, arise on both the campaign trail and in official presidential addresses, and do not appear to be an artifact of secular time trends.

Clinical Notes Reveal Physician Fatigue

Physicians write notes about patients. In doing so, they reveal much about themselves. Using data from 129,228 emergency room visits, we train a model to identify notes written by fatigued physicians -- those who worked 5 or more of the prior 7 days. In a hold-out set, the model accurately identifies notes written by these high-workload physicians, and also flags notes written in other high-fatigue settings: on overnight shifts, and after high patient volumes. Model predictions also correlate with worse decision-making on at least one important metric: yield of testing for heart attack is 18% lower with each standard deviation increase in model-predicted fatigue. Finally, the model indicates that notes written about Black and Hispanic patients have 12% and 21% higher predicted fatigue than Whites -- larger than overnight vs. daytime differences. These results have an important implication for large language models (LLMs). Our model indicates that fatigued doctors write more predictable notes. Perhaps unsurprisingly, because word prediction is the core of how LLMs work, we find that LLM-written notes have 17% higher predicted fatigue than real physicians' notes. This indicates that LLMs may introduce distortions in generated text that are not yet fully understood.