TwinS: Revisiting Non-Stationarity in Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Recently, multivariate time series forecasting tasks have garnered increasing attention due to their significant practical applications, leading to the emergence of various deep forecasting models. However, real-world time series exhibit pronounced non-stationary distribution characteristics. These characteristics are not solely limited to time-varying statistical properties highlighted by non-stationary Transformer but also encompass three key aspects: nested periodicity, absence of periodic distributions, and hysteresis among time variables. In this paper, we begin by validating this theory through wavelet analysis and propose the Transformer-based TwinS model, which consists of three modules to address the non-stationary periodic distributions: Wavelet Convolution, Period-Aware Attention, and Channel-Temporal Mixed MLP. Specifically, The Wavelet Convolution models nested periods by scaling the convolution kernel size like wavelet transform. The Period-Aware Attention guides attention computation by generating period relevance scores through a convolutional sub-network. The Channel-Temporal Mixed MLP captures the overall relationships between time series through channel-time mixing learning. TwinS achieves SOTA performance compared to mainstream TS models, with a maximum improvement in MSE of 25.8\% over PatchTST.

Towards Robust Trajectory Representations: Isolating Environmental Confounders with Causal Learning

Trajectory modeling refers to characterizing human movement behavior, serving as a pivotal step in understanding mobility patterns. Nevertheless, existing studies typically ignore the confounding effects of geospatial context, leading to the acquisition of spurious correlations and limited generalization capabilities. To bridge this gap, we initially formulate a Structural Causal Model (SCM) to decipher the trajectory representation learning process from a causal perspective. Building upon the SCM, we further present a Trajectory modeling framework (TrajCL) based on Causal Learning, which leverages the backdoor adjustment theory as an intervention tool to eliminate the spurious correlations between geospatial context and trajectories. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets verify that TrajCL markedly enhances performance in trajectory classification tasks while showcasing superior generalization and interpretability.

KITS: Inductive Spatio-Temporal Kriging with Increment Training Strategy

Sensors are commonly deployed to perceive the environment. However, due to the high cost, sensors are usually sparsely deployed. Kriging is the tailored task to infer the unobserved nodes (without sensors) using the observed source nodes (with sensors). The essence of kriging task is transferability. Recently, several inductive spatio-temporal kriging methods have been proposed based on graph neural networks, being trained based on a graph built on top of observed nodes via pretext tasks such as masking nodes out and reconstructing them. However, the graph in training is inevitably much sparser than the graph in inference that includes all the observed and unobserved nodes. The learned pattern cannot be well generalized for inference, denoted as graph gap. To address this issue, we first present a novel Increment training strategy: instead of masking nodes (and reconstructing them), we add virtual nodes into the training graph so as to mitigate the graph gap issue naturally. Nevertheless, the empty-shell virtual nodes without labels could have bad-learned features and lack supervision signals. To solve these issues, we pair each virtual node with its most similar observed node and fuse their features together; to enhance the supervision signal, we construct reliable pseudo labels for virtual nodes. As a result, the learned pattern of virtual nodes could be safely transferred to real unobserved nodes for reliable kriging. We name our new Kriging model with Increment Training Strategy as KITS. Extensive experiments demonstrate that KITS consistently outperforms existing kriging methods by large margins, e.g., the improvement over MAE score could be as high as 18.33%.

POI Alias Discovery in Delivery Addresses using User Locations

People often refer to a place of interest (POI) by an alias. In e-commerce scenarios, the POI alias problem affects the quality of the delivery address of online orders, bringing substantial challenges to intelligent logistics systems and market decision-making. Labeling the aliases of POIs involves heavy human labor, which is inefficient and expensive. Inspired by the observation that the users' GPS locations are highly related to their delivery address, we propose a ubiquitous alias discovery framework. Firstly, for each POI name in delivery addresses, the location data of its associated users, namely Mobility Profile are extracted. Then, we identify the alias relationship by modeling the similarity of mobility profiles. Comprehensive experiments on the large-scale location data and delivery address data from JD logistics validate the effectiveness.

Fine-Grained Urban Flow Inference

The ubiquitous deployment of monitoring devices in urban flow monitoring systems induces a significant cost for maintenance and operation. A technique is required to reduce the number of deployed devices, while preventing the degeneration of data accuracy and granularity. In this paper, we present an approach for inferring the real-time and fine-grained crowd flows throughout a city based on coarse-grained observations. This task exhibits two challenges: the spatial correlations between coarse- and fine-grained urban flows, and the complexities of external impacts. To tackle these issues, we develop a model entitled UrbanFM which consists of two major parts: 1) an inference network to generate fine-grained flow distributions from coarse-grained inputs that uses a feature extraction module and a novel distributional upsampling module; 2) a general fusion subnet to further boost the performance by considering the influence of different external factors. This structure provides outstanding effectiveness and efficiency for small scale upsampling. However, the single-pass upsampling used by UrbanFM is insufficient at higher upscaling rates. Therefore, we further present UrbanPy, a cascading model for progressive inference of fine-grained urban flows by decomposing the original tasks into multiple subtasks. Compared to UrbanFM, such an enhanced structure demonstrates favorable performance for larger-scale inference tasks.

UrbanFM: Inferring Fine-Grained Urban Flows

Urban flow monitoring systems play important roles in smart city efforts around the world. However, the ubiquitous deployment of monitoring devices, such as CCTVs, induces a long-lasting and enormous cost for maintenance and operation. This suggests the need for a technology that can reduce the number of deployed devices, while preventing the degeneration of data accuracy and granularity. In this paper, we aim to infer the real-time and fine-grained crowd flows throughout a city based on coarse-grained observations. This task is challenging due to two reasons: the spatial correlations between coarse- and fine-grained urban flows, and the complexities of external impacts. To tackle these issues, we develop a method entitled UrbanFM based on deep neural networks. Our model consists of two major parts: 1) an inference network to generate fine-grained flow distributions from coarse-grained inputs by using a feature extraction module and a novel distributional upsampling module; 2) a general fusion subnet to further boost the performance by considering the influences of different external factors. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets, namely TaxiBJ and HappyValley, validate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method compared to seven baselines, demonstrating the state-of-the-art performance of our approach on the fine-grained urban flow inference problem.