Investigating Calibration and Corruption Robustness of Post-hoc Pruned Perception CNNs: An Image Classification Benchmark Study

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in many computer vision tasks. However, high computational and storage demands hinder their deployment into resource-constrained environments, such as embedded devices. Model pruning helps to meet these restrictions by reducing the model size, while maintaining superior performance. Meanwhile, safety-critical applications pose more than just resource and performance constraints. In particular, predictions must not be overly confident, i.e., provide properly calibrated uncertainty estimations (proper uncertainty calibration), and CNNs must be robust against corruptions like naturally occurring input perturbations (natural corruption robustness). This work investigates the important trade-off between uncertainty calibration, natural corruption robustness, and performance for current state-of-research post-hoc CNN pruning techniques in the context of image classification tasks. Our study reveals that post-hoc pruning substantially improves the model's uncertainty calibration, performance, and natural corruption robustness, sparking hope for safe and robust embedded CNNs.Furthermore, uncertainty calibration and natural corruption robustness are not mutually exclusive targets under pruning, as evidenced by the improved safety aspects obtained by post-hoc unstructured pruning with increasing compression.

Cost-Sensitive Uncertainty-Based Failure Recognition for Object Detection

Object detectors in real-world applications often fail to detect objects due to varying factors such as weather conditions and noisy input. Therefore, a process that mitigates false detections is crucial for both safety and accuracy. While uncertainty-based thresholding shows promise, previous works demonstrate an imperfect correlation between uncertainty and detection errors. This hinders ideal thresholding, prompting us to further investigate the correlation and associated cost with different types of uncertainty. We therefore propose a cost-sensitive framework for object detection tailored to user-defined budgets on the two types of errors, missing and false detections. We derive minimum thresholding requirements to prevent performance degradation and define metrics to assess the applicability of uncertainty for failure recognition. Furthermore, we automate and optimize the thresholding process to maximize the failure recognition rate w.r.t. the specified budget. Evaluation on three autonomous driving datasets demonstrates that our approach significantly enhances safety, particularly in challenging scenarios. Leveraging localization aleatoric uncertainty and softmax-based entropy only, our method boosts the failure recognition rate by 36-60\% compared to conventional approaches. Code is available at https://mos-ks.github.io/publications.

Sparse Explanations of Neural Networks Using Pruned Layer-Wise Relevance Propagation

Explainability is a key component in many applications involving deep neural networks (DNNs). However, current explanation methods for DNNs commonly leave it to the human observer to distinguish relevant explanations from spurious noise. This is not feasible anymore when going from easily human-accessible data such as images to more complex data such as genome sequences. To facilitate the accessibility of DNN outputs from such complex data and to increase explainability, we present a modification of the widely used explanation method layer-wise relevance propagation. Our approach enforces sparsity directly by pruning the relevance propagation for the different layers. Thereby, we achieve sparser relevance attributions for the input features as well as for the intermediate layers. As the relevance propagation is input-specific, we aim to prune the relevance propagation rather than the underlying model architecture. This allows to prune different neurons for different inputs and hence, might be more appropriate to the local nature of explanation methods. To demonstrate the efficacy of our method, we evaluate it on two types of data, images and genomic sequences. We show that our modification indeed leads to noise reduction and concentrates relevance on the most important features compared to the baseline.

Informed Spectral Normalized Gaussian Processes for Trajectory Prediction

Prior parameter distributions provide an elegant way to represent prior expert and world knowledge for informed learning. Previous work has shown that using such informative priors to regularize probabilistic deep learning (DL) models increases their performance and data-efficiency. However, commonly used sampling-based approximations for probabilistic DL models can be computationally expensive, requiring multiple inference passes and longer training times. Promising alternatives are compute-efficient last layer kernel approximations like spectral normalized Gaussian processes (SNGPs). We propose a novel regularization-based continual learning method for SNGPs, which enables the use of informative priors that represent prior knowledge learned from previous tasks. Our proposal builds upon well-established methods and requires no rehearsal memory or parameter expansion. We apply our informed SNGP model to the trajectory prediction problem in autonomous driving by integrating prior drivability knowledge. On two public datasets, we investigate its performance under diminishing training data and across locations, and thereby demonstrate an increase in data-efficiency and robustness to location-transfers over non-informed and informed baselines.

Boosting Causal Additive Models

We present a boosting-based method to learn additive Structural Equation Models (SEMs) from observational data, with a focus on the theoretical aspects of determining the causal order among variables. We introduce a family of score functions based on arbitrary regression techniques, for which we establish necessary conditions to consistently favor the true causal ordering. Our analysis reveals that boosting with early stopping meets these criteria and thus offers a consistent score function for causal orderings. To address the challenges posed by high-dimensional data sets, we adapt our approach through a component-wise gradient descent in the space of additive SEMs. Our simulation study underlines our theoretical results for lower dimensions and demonstrates that our high-dimensional adaptation is competitive with state-of-the-art methods. In addition, it exhibits robustness with respect to the choice of the hyperparameters making the procedure easy to tune.

The Deep Promotion Time Cure Model

We propose a novel method for predicting time-to-event in the presence of cure fractions based on flexible survivals models integrated into a deep neural network framework. Our approach allows for non-linear relationships and high-dimensional interactions between covariates and survival and is suitable for large-scale applications. Furthermore, we allow the method to incorporate an identified predictor formed of an additive decomposition of interpretable linear and non-linear effects and add an orthogonalization layer to capture potential higher dimensional interactions. We demonstrate the usefulness and computational efficiency of our method via simulations and apply it to a large portfolio of US mortgage loans. Here, we find not only a better predictive performance of our framework but also a more realistic picture of covariate effects.

Dropout Regularization in Extended Generalized Linear Models based on Double Exponential Families

Even though dropout is a popular regularization technique, its theoretical properties are not fully understood. In this paper we study dropout regularization in extended generalized linear models based on double exponential families, for which the dispersion parameter can vary with the features. A theoretical analysis shows that dropout regularization prefers rare but important features in both the mean and dispersion, generalizing an earlier result for conventional generalized linear models. Training is performed using stochastic gradient descent with adaptive learning rate. To illustrate, we apply dropout to adaptive smoothing with B-splines, where both the mean and dispersion parameters are modelled flexibly. The important B-spline basis functions can be thought of as rare features, and we confirm in experiments that dropout is an effective form of regularization for mean and dispersion parameters that improves on a penalized maximum likelihood approach with an explicit smoothness penalty.

Scalable Estimation for Structured Additive Distributional Regression

Recently, fitting probabilistic models have gained importance in many areas but estimation of such distributional models with very large data sets is a difficult task. In particular, the use of rather complex models can easily lead to memory-related efficiency problems that can make estimation infeasible even on high-performance computers. We therefore propose a novel backfitting algorithm, which is based on the ideas of stochastic gradient descent and can deal virtually with any amount of data on a conventional laptop. The algorithm performs automatic selection of variables and smoothing parameters, and its performance is in most cases superior or at least equivalent to other implementations for structured additive distributional regression, e.g., gradient boosting, while maintaining low computation time. Performance is evaluated using an extensive simulation study and an exceptionally challenging and unique example of lightning count prediction over Austria. A very large dataset with over 9 million observations and 80 covariates is used, so that a prediction model cannot be estimated with standard distributional regression methods but with our new approach.

Informed Priors for Knowledge Integration in Trajectory Prediction

Informed machine learning methods allow the integration of prior knowledge into learning systems. This can increase accuracy and robustness or reduce data needs. However, existing methods often assume hard constraining knowledge, that does not require to trade-off prior knowledge with observations, but can be used to directly reduce the problem space. Other approaches use specific, architectural changes as representation of prior knowledge, limiting applicability. We propose an informed machine learning method, based on continual learning. This allows the integration of arbitrary, prior knowledge, potentially from multiple sources, and does not require specific architectures. Furthermore, our approach enables probabilistic and multi-modal predictions, that can improve predictive accuracy and robustness. We exemplify our approach by applying it to a state-of-the-art trajectory predictor for autonomous driving. This domain is especially dependent on informed learning approaches, as it is subject to an overwhelming large variety of possible environments and very rare events, while requiring robust and accurate predictions. We evaluate our model on a commonly used benchmark dataset, only using data already available in a conventional setup. We show that our method outperforms both non-informed and informed learning methods, that are often used in the literature. Furthermore, we are able to compete with a conventional baseline, even using half as many observation examples.

Distributional Adaptive Soft Regression Trees

Random forests are an ensemble method relevant for many problems, such as regression or classification. They are popular due to their good predictive performance (compared to, e.g., decision trees) requiring only minimal tuning of hyperparameters. They are built via aggregation of multiple regression trees during training and are usually calculated recursively using hard splitting rules. Recently regression forests have been incorporated into the framework of distributional regression, a nowadays popular regression approach aiming at estimating complete conditional distributions rather than relating the mean of an output variable to input features only - as done classically. This article proposes a new type of a distributional regression tree using a multivariate soft split rule. One great advantage of the soft split is that smooth high-dimensional functions can be estimated with only one tree while the complexity of the function is controlled adaptive by information criteria. Moreover, the search for the optimal split variable is obsolete. We show by means of extensive simulation studies that the algorithm has excellent properties and outperforms various benchmark methods, especially in the presence of complex non-linear feature interactions. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of our approach with an example on probabilistic forecasts for the Sun's activity.