Efficient and Sharp Off-Policy Learning under Unobserved Confounding

We develop a novel method for personalized off-policy learning in scenarios with unobserved confounding. Thereby, we address a key limitation of standard policy learning: standard policy learning assumes unconfoundedness, meaning that no unobserved factors influence both treatment assignment and outcomes. However, this assumption is often violated, because of which standard policy learning produces biased estimates and thus leads to policies that can be harmful. To address this limitation, we employ causal sensitivity analysis and derive a statistically efficient estimator for a sharp bound on the value function under unobserved confounding. Our estimator has three advantages: (1) Unlike existing works, our estimator avoids unstable minimax optimization based on inverse propensity weighted outcomes. (2) Our estimator is statistically efficient. (3) We prove that our estimator leads to the optimal confounding-robust policy. Finally, we extend our theory to the related task of policy improvement under unobserved confounding, i.e., when a baseline policy such as the standard of care is available. We show in experiments with synthetic and real-world data that our method outperforms simple plug-in approaches and existing baselines. Our method is highly relevant for decision-making where unobserved confounding can be problematic, such as in healthcare and public policy.

Orthogonal Representation Learning for Estimating Causal Quantities

Representation learning is widely used for estimating causal quantities (e.g., the conditional average treatment effect) from observational data. While existing representation learning methods have the benefit of allowing for end-to-end learning, they do not have favorable theoretical properties of Neyman-orthogonal learners, such as double robustness and quasi-oracle efficiency. Also, such representation learning methods often employ additional constraints, like balancing, which may even lead to inconsistent estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel class of Neyman-orthogonal learners for causal quantities defined at the representation level, which we call OR-learners. Our OR-learners have several practical advantages: they allow for consistent estimation of causal quantities based on any learned representation, while offering favorable theoretical properties including double robustness and quasi-oracle efficiency. In multiple experiments, we show that, under certain regularity conditions, our OR-learners improve existing representation learning methods and achieve state-of-the-art performance. To the best of our knowledge, our OR-learners are the first work to offer a unified framework of representation learning methods and Neyman-orthogonal learners for causal quantities estimation.

Constructing Confidence Intervals for Average Treatment Effects from Multiple Datasets

Constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for the average treatment effect (ATE) from patient records is crucial to assess the effectiveness and safety of drugs. However, patient records typically come from different hospitals, thus raising the question of how multiple observational datasets can be effectively combined for this purpose. In our paper, we propose a new method that estimates the ATE from multiple observational datasets and provides valid CIs. Our method makes little assumptions about the observational datasets and is thus widely applicable in medical practice. The key idea of our method is that we leverage prediction-powered inferences and thereby essentially `shrink' the CIs so that we offer more precise uncertainty quantification as compared to na\"ive approaches. We further prove the unbiasedness of our method and the validity of our CIs. We confirm our theoretical results through various numerical experiments. Finally, we provide an extension of our method for constructing CIs from combinations of experimental and observational datasets.

Slowing Down Forgetting in Continual Learning

A common challenge in continual learning (CL) is catastrophic forgetting, where the performance on old tasks drops after new, additional tasks are learned. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called ReCL to slow down forgetting in CL. Our framework exploits an implicit bias of gradient-based neural networks due to which these converge to margin maximization points. Such convergence points allow us to reconstruct old data from previous tasks, which we then combine with the current training data. Our framework is flexible and can be applied on top of existing, state-of-the-art CL methods to slow down forgetting. We further demonstrate the performance gain from our framework across a large series of experiments, including different CL scenarios (class incremental, domain incremental, task incremental learning) different datasets (MNIST, CIFAR10), and different network architectures. Across all experiments, we find large performance gains through ReCL. To the best of our knowledge, our framework is the first to address catastrophic forgetting by leveraging models in CL as their own memory buffers.

Quantifying Aleatoric Uncertainty of the Treatment Effect: A Novel Orthogonal Learner

Estimating causal quantities from observational data is crucial for understanding the safety and effectiveness of medical treatments. However, to make reliable inferences, medical practitioners require not only estimating averaged causal quantities, such as the conditional average treatment effect, but also understanding the randomness of the treatment effect as a random variable. This randomness is referred to as aleatoric uncertainty and is necessary for understanding the probability of benefit from treatment or quantiles of the treatment effect. Yet, the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect has received surprisingly little attention in the causal machine learning community. To fill this gap, we aim to quantify the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect at the covariate-conditional level, namely, the conditional distribution of the treatment effect (CDTE). Unlike average causal quantities, the CDTE is not point identifiable without strong additional assumptions. As a remedy, we employ partial identification to obtain sharp bounds on the CDTE and thereby quantify the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect. We then develop a novel, orthogonal learner for the bounds on the CDTE, which we call AU-learner. We further show that our AU-learner has several strengths in that it satisfies Neyman-orthogonality and is doubly robust. Finally, we propose a fully-parametric deep learning instantiation of our AU-learner.

Causal machine learning for predicting treatment outcomes

Causal machine learning (ML) offers flexible, data-driven methods for predicting treatment outcomes including efficacy and toxicity, thereby supporting the assessment and safety of drugs. A key benefit of causal ML is that it allows for estimating individualized treatment effects, so that clinical decision-making can be personalized to individual patient profiles. Causal ML can be used in combination with both clinical trial data and real-world data, such as clinical registries and electronic health records, but caution is needed to avoid biased or incorrect predictions. In this Perspective, we discuss the benefits of causal ML (relative to traditional statistical or ML approaches) and outline the key components and steps. Finally, we provide recommendations for the reliable use of causal ML and effective translation into the clinic.

Learning Representations of Instruments for Partial Identification of Treatment Effects

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is violated. In this work, we leverage arbitrary (potentially high-dimensional) instruments to estimate bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). Our contributions are three-fold: (1) We propose a novel approach for partial identification through a mapping of instruments to a discrete representation space so that we yield valid bounds on the CATE. This is crucial for reliable decision-making in real-world applications. (2) We derive a two-step procedure that learns tight bounds using a tailored neural partitioning of the latent instrument space. As a result, we avoid instability issues due to numerical approximations or adversarial training. Furthermore, our procedure aims to reduce the estimation variance in finite-sample settings to yield more reliable estimates. (3) We show theoretically that our procedure obtains valid bounds while reducing estimation variance. We further perform extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness across various settings. Overall, our procedure offers a novel path for practitioners to make use of potentially high-dimensional instruments (e.g., as in Mendelian randomization).

DiffPO: A causal diffusion model for learning distributions of potential outcomes

Predicting potential outcomes of interventions from observational data is crucial for decision-making in medicine, but the task is challenging due to the fundamental problem of causal inference. Existing methods are largely limited to point estimates of potential outcomes with no uncertain quantification; thus, the full information about the distributions of potential outcomes is typically ignored. In this paper, we propose a novel causal diffusion model called DiffPO, which is carefully designed for reliable inferences in medicine by learning the distribution of potential outcomes. In our DiffPO, we leverage a tailored conditional denoising diffusion model to learn complex distributions, where we address the selection bias through a novel orthogonal diffusion loss. Another strength of our DiffPO method is that it is highly flexible (e.g., it can also be used to estimate different causal quantities such as CATE). Across a wide range of experiments, we show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Stabilized Neural Prediction of Potential Outcomes in Continuous Time

Patient trajectories from electronic health records are widely used to predict potential outcomes of treatments over time, which then allows to personalize care. Yet, existing neural methods for this purpose have a key limitation: while some adjust for time-varying confounding, these methods assume that the time series are recorded in discrete time. In other words, they are constrained to settings where measurements and treatments are conducted at fixed time steps, even though this is unrealistic in medical practice. In this work, we aim to predict potential outcomes in continuous time. The latter is of direct practical relevance because it allows for modeling patient trajectories where measurements and treatments take place at arbitrary, irregular timestamps. We thus propose a new method called stabilized continuous time inverse propensity network (SCIP-Net). For this, we further derive stabilized inverse propensity weights for robust prediction of the potential outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, our SCIP-Net is the first neural method that performs proper adjustments for time-varying confounding in continuous time.

Automated Knowledge Concept Annotation and Question Representation Learning for Knowledge Tracing

Knowledge tracing (KT) is a popular approach for modeling students' learning progress over time, which can enable more personalized and adaptive learning. However, existing KT approaches face two major limitations: (1) they rely heavily on expert-defined knowledge concepts (KCs) in questions, which is time-consuming and prone to errors; and (2) KT methods tend to overlook the semantics of both questions and the given KCs. In this work, we address these challenges and present KCQRL, a framework for automated knowledge concept annotation and question representation learning that can improve the effectiveness of any existing KT model. First, we propose an automated KC annotation process using large language models (LLMs), which generates question solutions and then annotates KCs in each solution step of the questions. Second, we introduce a contrastive learning approach to generate semantically rich embeddings for questions and solution steps, aligning them with their associated KCs via a tailored false negative elimination approach. These embeddings can be readily integrated into existing KT models, replacing their randomly initialized embeddings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of KCQRL across 15 KT algorithms on two large real-world Math learning datasets, where we achieve consistent performance improvements.