Informed Spectral Normalized Gaussian Processes for Trajectory Prediction

Prior parameter distributions provide an elegant way to represent prior expert and world knowledge for informed learning. Previous work has shown that using such informative priors to regularize probabilistic deep learning (DL) models increases their performance and data-efficiency. However, commonly used sampling-based approximations for probabilistic DL models can be computationally expensive, requiring multiple inference passes and longer training times. Promising alternatives are compute-efficient last layer kernel approximations like spectral normalized Gaussian processes (SNGPs). We propose a novel regularization-based continual learning method for SNGPs, which enables the use of informative priors that represent prior knowledge learned from previous tasks. Our proposal builds upon well-established methods and requires no rehearsal memory or parameter expansion. We apply our informed SNGP model to the trajectory prediction problem in autonomous driving by integrating prior drivability knowledge. On two public datasets, we investigate its performance under diminishing training data and across locations, and thereby demonstrate an increase in data-efficiency and robustness to location-transfers over non-informed and informed baselines.

Informed Priors for Knowledge Integration in Trajectory Prediction

Informed machine learning methods allow the integration of prior knowledge into learning systems. This can increase accuracy and robustness or reduce data needs. However, existing methods often assume hard constraining knowledge, that does not require to trade-off prior knowledge with observations, but can be used to directly reduce the problem space. Other approaches use specific, architectural changes as representation of prior knowledge, limiting applicability. We propose an informed machine learning method, based on continual learning. This allows the integration of arbitrary, prior knowledge, potentially from multiple sources, and does not require specific architectures. Furthermore, our approach enables probabilistic and multi-modal predictions, that can improve predictive accuracy and robustness. We exemplify our approach by applying it to a state-of-the-art trajectory predictor for autonomous driving. This domain is especially dependent on informed learning approaches, as it is subject to an overwhelming large variety of possible environments and very rare events, while requiring robust and accurate predictions. We evaluate our model on a commonly used benchmark dataset, only using data already available in a conventional setup. We show that our method outperforms both non-informed and informed learning methods, that are often used in the literature. Furthermore, we are able to compete with a conventional baseline, even using half as many observation examples.

Flexible development and evaluation of machine-learning-supported optimal control and estimation methods via HILO-MPC

Model-based optimization approaches for monitoring and control, such as model predictive control and optimal state and parameter estimation, have been used for decades in many engineering applications. Models describing the dynamics, constraints, and desired performance criteria are fundamental to model-based approaches. Thanks to recent technological advancements in digitalization, machine learning methods such as deep learning, and computing power, there has been an increasing interest in using machine learning methods alongside model-based approaches for control and estimation. The number of new methods and theoretical findings using machine learning for model-based control and optimization is increasing rapidly. This paper outlines the basic ideas and principles behind an easy-to-use Python toolbox that allows to quickly and efficiently solve machine-learning-supported optimization, model predictive control, and estimation problems. The toolbox leverages state-of-the-art machine learning libraries to train components used to define the problem. It allows to efficiently solve the resulting optimization problems. Machine learning can be used for a broad spectrum of tasks, ranging from model predictive control for stabilization, setpoint tracking, path following, and trajectory tracking to moving horizon estimation and Kalman filtering. For linear systems, it enables quick code generation for embedded MPC applications. HILO-MPC is flexible and adaptable, making it especially suitable for research and fundamental development tasks. Due to its simplicity and numerous already implemented examples, it is also a powerful teaching tool. The usability is underlined, presenting a series of application examples.