PINT: Physics-Informed Neural Time Series Models with Applications to Long-term Inference on WeatherBench 2m-Temperature Data

This paper introduces PINT (Physics-Informed Neural Time Series Models), a framework that integrates physical constraints into neural time series models to improve their ability to capture complex dynamics. We apply PINT to the ERA5 WeatherBench dataset, focusing on long-term forecasting of 2m-temperature data. PINT incorporates the Simple Harmonic Oscillator Equation as a physics-informed prior, embedding its periodic dynamics into RNN, LSTM, and GRU architectures. This equation's analytical solutions (sine and cosine functions) facilitate rigorous evaluation of the benefits of incorporating physics-informed constraints. By benchmarking against a linear regression baseline derived from its exact solutions, we quantify the impact of embedding physical principles in data-driven models. Unlike traditional time series models that rely on future observations, PINT is designed for practical forecasting. Using only the first 90 days of observed data, it iteratively predicts the next two years, addressing challenges posed by limited real-time updates. Experiments on the WeatherBench dataset demonstrate PINT's ability to generalize, capture periodic trends, and align with physical principles. This study highlights the potential of physics-informed neural models in bridging machine learning and interpretable climate applications. Our models and datasets are publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/KV-Park.

Hierarchical and Density-based Causal Clustering

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is vital for scientific and policy research. However, identifying and evaluating heterogeneous treatment effects pose significant challenges due to the typically unknown subgroup structure. Recently, a novel approach, causal k-means clustering, has emerged to assess heterogeneity of treatment effect by applying the k-means algorithm to unknown counterfactual regression functions. In this paper, we expand upon this framework by integrating hierarchical and density-based clustering algorithms. We propose plug-in estimators that are simple and readily implementable using off-the-shelf algorithms. Unlike k-means clustering, which requires the margin condition, our proposed estimators do not rely on strong structural assumptions on the outcome process. We go on to study their rate of convergence, and show that under the minimal regularity conditions, the additional cost of causal clustering is essentially the estimation error of the outcome regression functions. Our findings significantly extend the capabilities of the causal clustering framework, thereby contributing to the progression of methodologies for identifying homogeneous subgroups in treatment response, consequently facilitating more nuanced and targeted interventions. The proposed methods also open up new avenues for clustering with generic pseudo-outcomes. We explore finite sample properties via simulation, and illustrate the proposed methods in voting and employment projection datasets.

Strategic Data Ordering: Enhancing Large Language Model Performance through Curriculum Learning

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has improved text understanding and generation but poses challenges in computational resources. This study proposes a curriculum learning-inspired, data-centric training strategy that begins with simpler tasks and progresses to more complex ones, using criteria such as prompt length, attention scores, and loss values to structure the training data. Experiments with Mistral-7B (Jiang et al., 2023) and Gemma-7B (Team et al., 2024) models demonstrate that curriculum learning slightly improves performance compared to traditional random data shuffling. Notably, we observed that sorting data based on our proposed attention criteria generally led to better performance. This approach offers a sustainable method to enhance LLM performance without increasing model size or dataset volume, addressing scalability challenges in LLM training.

One vs. Many: Comprehending Accurate Information from Multiple Erroneous and Inconsistent AI Generations

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are nondeterministic, the same input can generate different outputs, some of which may be incorrect or hallucinated. If run again, the LLM may correct itself and produce the correct answer. Unfortunately, most LLM-powered systems resort to single results which, correct or not, users accept. Having the LLM produce multiple outputs may help identify disagreements or alternatives. However, it is not obvious how the user will interpret conflicts or inconsistencies. To this end, we investigate how users perceive the AI model and comprehend the generated information when they receive multiple, potentially inconsistent, outputs. Through a preliminary study, we identified five types of output inconsistencies. Based on these categories, we conducted a study (N=252) in which participants were given one or more LLM-generated passages to an information-seeking question. We found that inconsistency within multiple LLM-generated outputs lowered the participants' perceived AI capacity, while also increasing their comprehension of the given information. Specifically, we observed that this positive effect of inconsistencies was most significant for participants who read two passages, compared to those who read three. Based on these findings, we present design implications that, instead of regarding LLM output inconsistencies as a drawback, we can reveal the potential inconsistencies to transparently indicate the limitations of these models and promote critical LLM usage.

Causal K-Means Clustering

Causal effects are often characterized with population summaries. These might provide an incomplete picture when there are heterogeneous treatment effects across subgroups. Since the subgroup structure is typically unknown, it is more challenging to identify and evaluate subgroup effects than population effects. We propose a new solution to this problem: Causal k-Means Clustering, which harnesses the widely-used k-means clustering algorithm to uncover the unknown subgroup structure. Our problem differs significantly from the conventional clustering setup since the variables to be clustered are unknown counterfactual functions. We present a plug-in estimator which is simple and readily implementable using off-the-shelf algorithms, and study its rate of convergence. We also develop a new bias-corrected estimator based on nonparametric efficiency theory and double machine learning, and show that this estimator achieves fast root-n rates and asymptotic normality in large nonparametric models. Our proposed methods are especially useful for modern outcome-wide studies with multiple treatment levels. Further, our framework is extensible to clustering with generic pseudo-outcomes, such as partially observed outcomes or otherwise unknown functions. Finally, we explore finite sample properties via simulation, and illustrate the proposed methods in a study of treatment programs for adolescent substance abuse.

Semi-Supervised Domain Adaptation for Wildfire Detection

Recently, both the frequency and intensity of wildfires have increased worldwide, primarily due to climate change. In this paper, we propose a novel protocol for wildfire detection, leveraging semi-supervised Domain Adaptation for object detection, accompanied by a corresponding dataset designed for use by both academics and industries. Our dataset encompasses 30 times more diverse labeled scenes for the current largest benchmark wildfire dataset, HPWREN, and introduces a new labeling policy for wildfire detection. Inspired by CoordConv, we propose a robust baseline, Location-Aware Object Detection for Semi-Supervised Domain Adaptation (LADA), utilizing a teacher-student based framework capable of extracting translational variance features characteristic of wildfires. With only using 1% target domain labeled data, our framework significantly outperforms our source-only baseline by a notable margin of 3.8% in mean Average Precision on the HPWREN wildfire dataset. Our dataset is available at https://github.com/BloomBerry/LADA.

Topological Learning for Motion Data via Mixed Coordinates

Topology can extract the structural information in a dataset efficiently. In this paper, we attempt to incorporate topological information into a multiple output Gaussian process model for transfer learning purposes. To achieve this goal, we extend the framework of circular coordinates into a novel framework of mixed valued coordinates to take linear trends in the time series into consideration. One of the major challenges to learn from multiple time series effectively via a multiple output Gaussian process model is constructing a functional kernel. We propose to use topologically induced clustering to construct a cluster based kernel in a multiple output Gaussian process model. This kernel not only incorporates the topological structural information, but also allows us to put forward a unified framework using topological information in time and motion series.

TopP&R: Robust Support Estimation Approach for Evaluating Fidelity and Diversity in Generative Models

We propose a robust and reliable evaluation metric for generative models by introducing topological and statistical treatments for rigorous support estimation. Existing metrics, such as Inception Score (IS), Frechet Inception Distance (FID), and the variants of Precision and Recall (P&R), heavily rely on supports that are estimated from sample features. However, the reliability of their estimation has not been seriously discussed (and overlooked) even though the quality of the evaluation entirely depends on it. In this paper, we propose Topological Precision and Recall (TopP&R, pronounced 'topper'), which provides a systematic approach to estimating supports, retaining only topologically and statistically important features with a certain level of confidence. This not only makes TopP&R strong for noisy features, but also provides statistical consistency. Our theoretical and experimental results show that TopP&R is robust to outliers and non-independent and identically distributed (Non-IID) perturbations, while accurately capturing the true trend of change in samples. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first evaluation metric focused on the robust estimation of the support and provides its statistical consistency under noise.

Image-based Early Detection System for Wildfires

Wildfires are a disastrous phenomenon which cause damage to land, loss of property, air pollution, and even loss of human life. Due to the warmer and drier conditions created by climate change, more severe and uncontrollable wildfires are expected to occur in the coming years. This could lead to a global wildfire crisis and have dire consequences on our planet. Hence, it has become imperative to use technology to help prevent the spread of wildfires. One way to prevent the spread of wildfires before they become too large is to perform early detection i.e, detecting the smoke before the actual fire starts. In this paper, we present our Wildfire Detection and Alert System which use machine learning to detect wildfire smoke with a high degree of accuracy and can send immediate alerts to users. Our technology is currently being used in the USA to monitor data coming in from hundreds of cameras daily. We show that our system has a high true detection rate and a low false detection rate. Our performance evaluation study also shows that on an average our system detects wildfire smoke faster than an actual person.

Restore from Restored: Single-image Inpainting

Recent image inpainting methods have shown promising results due to the power of deep learning, which can explore external information available from the large training dataset. However, many state-of-the-art inpainting networks are still limited in exploiting internal information available in the given input image at test time. To mitigate this problem, we present a novel and efficient self-supervised fine-tuning algorithm that can adapt the parameters of fully pre-trained inpainting networks without using ground-truth target images. We update the parameters of the pre-trained state-of-the-art inpainting networks by utilizing existing self-similar patches (i.e., self-exemplars) within the given input image without changing the network architecture and improve the inpainting quality by a large margin. Qualitative and quantitative experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm, and we achieve state-of-the-art inpainting results on publicly available benchmark datasets.