Carbon Market Simulation with Adaptive Mechanism Design

A carbon market is a market-based tool that incentivizes economic agents to align individual profits with the global utility, i.e., reducing carbon emissions to tackle climate change. \textit{Cap and trade} stands as a critical principle based on allocating and trading carbon allowances (carbon emission credit), enabling economic agents to follow planned emissions and penalizing excess emissions. A central authority is responsible for introducing and allocating those allowances in cap and trade. However, the complexity of carbon market dynamics makes accurate simulation intractable, which in turn hinders the design of effective allocation strategies. To address this, we propose an adaptive mechanism design framework, simulating the market using hierarchical, model-free multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). Government agents allocate carbon credits, while enterprises engage in economic activities and carbon trading. This framework illustrates agents' behavior comprehensively. Numerical results show MARL enables government agents to balance productivity, equality, and carbon emissions. Our project is available at \url{https://github.com/xwanghan/Carbon-Simulator}.

Transfer Learning for Diffusion Models

Diffusion models, a specific type of generative model, have achieved unprecedented performance in recent years and consistently produce high-quality synthetic samples. A critical prerequisite for their notable success lies in the presence of a substantial number of training samples, which can be impractical in real-world applications due to high collection costs or associated risks. Consequently, various finetuning and regularization approaches have been proposed to transfer knowledge from existing pre-trained models to specific target domains with limited data. This paper introduces the Transfer Guided Diffusion Process (TGDP), a novel approach distinct from conventional finetuning and regularization methods. We prove that the optimal diffusion model for the target domain integrates pre-trained diffusion models on the source domain with additional guidance from a domain classifier. We further extend TGDP to a conditional version for modeling the joint distribution of data and its corresponding labels, together with two additional regularization terms to enhance the model performance. We validate the effectiveness of TGDP on Gaussian mixture simulations and on real electrocardiogram (ECG) datasets.

Mitigating Backdoor Attack by Injecting Proactive Defensive Backdoor

Data-poisoning backdoor attacks are serious security threats to machine learning models, where an adversary can manipulate the training dataset to inject backdoors into models. In this paper, we focus on in-training backdoor defense, aiming to train a clean model even when the dataset may be potentially poisoned. Unlike most existing methods that primarily detect and remove/unlearn suspicious samples to mitigate malicious backdoor attacks, we propose a novel defense approach called PDB (Proactive Defensive Backdoor). Specifically, PDB leverages the "home field" advantage of defenders by proactively injecting a defensive backdoor into the model during training. Taking advantage of controlling the training process, the defensive backdoor is designed to suppress the malicious backdoor effectively while remaining secret to attackers. In addition, we introduce a reversible mapping to determine the defensive target label. During inference, PDB embeds a defensive trigger in the inputs and reverses the model's prediction, suppressing malicious backdoor and ensuring the model's utility on the original task. Experimental results across various datasets and models demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art defense performance against a wide range of backdoor attacks.

Dynamic Latent Graph-Guided Neural Temporal Point Processes

Continuously-observed event occurrences, often exhibit self- and mutually-exciting effects, which can be well modeled using temporal point processes. Beyond that, these event dynamics may also change over time, with certain periodic trends. We propose a novel variational auto-encoder to capture such a mixture of temporal dynamics. More specifically, the whole time interval of the input sequence is partitioned into a set of sub-intervals. The event dynamics are assumed to be stationary within each sub-interval, but could be changing across those sub-intervals. In particular, we use a sequential latent variable model to learn a dependency graph between the observed dimensions, for each sub-interval. The model predicts the future event times, by using the learned dependency graph to remove the noncontributing influences of past events. By doing so, the proposed model demonstrates its higher accuracy in predicting inter-event times and event types for several real-world event sequences, compared with existing state of the art neural point processes.

Can language agents be alternatives to PPO? A Preliminary Empirical Study On OpenAI Gym

The formidable capacity for zero- or few-shot decision-making in language agents encourages us to pose a compelling question: Can language agents be alternatives to PPO agents in traditional sequential decision-making tasks? To investigate this, we first take environments collected in OpenAI Gym as our testbeds and ground them to textual environments that construct the TextGym simulator. This allows for straightforward and efficient comparisons between PPO agents and language agents, given the widespread adoption of OpenAI Gym. To ensure a fair and effective benchmarking, we introduce $5$ levels of scenario for accurate domain-knowledge controlling and a unified RL-inspired framework for language agents. Additionally, we propose an innovative explore-exploit-guided language (EXE) agent to solve tasks within TextGym. Through numerical experiments and ablation studies, we extract valuable insights into the decision-making capabilities of language agents and make a preliminary evaluation of their potential to be alternatives to PPO in classical sequential decision-making problems. This paper sheds light on the performance of language agents and paves the way for future research in this exciting domain. Our code is publicly available at~\url{https://github.com/mail-ecnu/Text-Gym-Agents}.

SMURF-THP: Score Matching-based UnceRtainty quantiFication for Transformer Hawkes Process

Transformer Hawkes process models have shown to be successful in modeling event sequence data. However, most of the existing training methods rely on maximizing the likelihood of event sequences, which involves calculating some intractable integral. Moreover, the existing methods fail to provide uncertainty quantification for model predictions, e.g., confidence intervals for the predicted event's arrival time. To address these issues, we propose SMURF-THP, a score-based method for learning Transformer Hawkes process and quantifying prediction uncertainty. Specifically, SMURF-THP learns the score function of events' arrival time based on a score-matching objective that avoids the intractable computation. With such a learned score function, we can sample arrival time of events from the predictive distribution. This naturally allows for the quantification of uncertainty by computing confidence intervals over the generated samples. We conduct extensive experiments in both event type prediction and uncertainty quantification of arrival time. In all the experiments, SMURF-THP outperforms existing likelihood-based methods in confidence calibration while exhibiting comparable prediction accuracy.

Score Matching-based Pseudolikelihood Estimation of Neural Marked Spatio-Temporal Point Process with Uncertainty Quantification

Spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs) are potent mathematical tools for modeling and predicting events with both temporal and spatial features. Despite their versatility, most existing methods for learning STPPs either assume a restricted form of the spatio-temporal distribution, or suffer from inaccurate approximations of the intractable integral in the likelihood training objective. These issues typically arise from the normalization term of the probability density function. Moreover, current techniques fail to provide uncertainty quantification for model predictions, such as confidence intervals for the predicted event's arrival time and confidence regions for the event's location, which is crucial given the considerable randomness of the data. To tackle these challenges, we introduce SMASH: a Score MAtching-based pSeudolikeliHood estimator for learning marked STPPs with uncertainty quantification. Specifically, our framework adopts a normalization-free objective by estimating the pseudolikelihood of marked STPPs through score-matching and offers uncertainty quantification for the predicted event time, location and mark by computing confidence regions over the generated samples. The superior performance of our proposed framework is demonstrated through extensive experiments in both event prediction and uncertainty quantification.

Shared Adversarial Unlearning: Backdoor Mitigation by Unlearning Shared Adversarial Examples

Backdoor attacks are serious security threats to machine learning models where an adversary can inject poisoned samples into the training set, causing a backdoored model which predicts poisoned samples with particular triggers to particular target classes, while behaving normally on benign samples. In this paper, we explore the task of purifying a backdoored model using a small clean dataset. By establishing the connection between backdoor risk and adversarial risk, we derive a novel upper bound for backdoor risk, which mainly captures the risk on the shared adversarial examples (SAEs) between the backdoored model and the purified model. This upper bound further suggests a novel bi-level optimization problem for mitigating backdoor using adversarial training techniques. To solve it, we propose Shared Adversarial Unlearning (SAU). Specifically, SAU first generates SAEs, and then, unlearns the generated SAEs such that they are either correctly classified by the purified model and/or differently classified by the two models, such that the backdoor effect in the backdoored model will be mitigated in the purified model. Experiments on various benchmark datasets and network architectures show that our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance for backdoor defense.

Neural Polarizer: A Lightweight and Effective Backdoor Defense via Purifying Poisoned Features

Recent studies have demonstrated the susceptibility of deep neural networks to backdoor attacks. Given a backdoored model, its prediction of a poisoned sample with trigger will be dominated by the trigger information, though trigger information and benign information coexist. Inspired by the mechanism of the optical polarizer that a polarizer could pass light waves with particular polarizations while filtering light waves with other polarizations, we propose a novel backdoor defense method by inserting a learnable neural polarizer into the backdoored model as an intermediate layer, in order to purify the poisoned sample via filtering trigger information while maintaining benign information. The neural polarizer is instantiated as one lightweight linear transformation layer, which is learned through solving a well designed bi-level optimization problem, based on a limited clean dataset. Compared to other fine-tuning-based defense methods which often adjust all parameters of the backdoored model, the proposed method only needs to learn one additional layer, such that it is more efficient and requires less clean data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method in removing backdoors across various neural network architectures and datasets, especially in the case of very limited clean data.

Negotiated Reasoning: On Provably Addressing Relative Over-Generalization

Over-generalization is a thorny issue in cognitive science, where people may become overly cautious due to past experiences. Agents in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) also have been found to suffer relative over-generalization (RO) as people do and stuck to sub-optimal cooperation. Recent methods have shown that assigning reasoning ability to agents can mitigate RO algorithmically and empirically, but there has been a lack of theoretical understanding of RO, let alone designing provably RO-free methods. This paper first proves that RO can be avoided when the MARL method satisfies a consistent reasoning requirement under certain conditions. Then we introduce a novel reasoning framework, called negotiated reasoning, that first builds the connection between reasoning and RO with theoretical justifications. After that, we propose an instantiated algorithm, Stein variational negotiated reasoning (SVNR), which uses Stein variational gradient descent to derive a negotiation policy that provably avoids RO in MARL under maximum entropy policy iteration. The method is further parameterized with neural networks for amortized learning, making computation efficient. Numerical experiments on many RO-challenged environments demonstrate the superiority and efficiency of SVNR compared to state-of-the-art methods in addressing RO.