A switching Kalman filter approach to online mitigation and correction sensor corruption for inertial navigation

This paper introduces a novel approach to detect and address faulty or corrupted external sensors in the context of inertial navigation by leveraging a switching Kalman Filter combined with parameter augmentation. Instead of discarding the corrupted data, the proposed method retains and processes it, running multiple observation models simultaneously and evaluating their likelihoods to accurately identify the true state of the system. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach to both identify the moment that a sensor becomes faulty and to correct for the resulting sensor behavior to maintain accurate estimates. We demonstrate our approach on an application of balloon navigation in the atmosphere and shuttle reentry. The results show that our method can accurately recover the true system state even in the presence of significant sensor bias, thereby improving the robustness and reliability of state estimation systems under challenging conditions. We also provide a statistical analysis of problem settings to determine when and where our method is most accurate and where it fails.

Improving the performance of Stein variational inference through extreme sparsification of physically-constrained neural network models

Most scientific machine learning (SciML) applications of neural networks involve hundreds to thousands of parameters, and hence, uncertainty quantification for such models is plagued by the curse of dimensionality. Using physical applications, we show that $L_0$ sparsification prior to Stein variational gradient descent ($L_0$+SVGD) is a more robust and efficient means of uncertainty quantification, in terms of computational cost and performance than the direct application of SGVD or projected SGVD methods. Specifically, $L_0$+SVGD demonstrates superior resilience to noise, the ability to perform well in extrapolated regions, and a faster convergence rate to an optimal solution.

Bayesian calibration of stochastic agent based model via random forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. These results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results and their predictive performance is analyzed showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

Accelerating Phase Field Simulations Through a Hybrid Adaptive Fourier Neural Operator with U-Net Backbone

Prolonged contact between a corrosive liquid and metal alloys can cause progressive dealloying. For such liquid-metal dealloying (LMD) process, phase field models have been developed. However, the governing equations often involve coupled non-linear partial differential equations (PDE), which are challenging to solve numerically. In particular, stiffness in the PDEs requires an extremely small time steps (e.g. $10^{-12}$ or smaller). This computational bottleneck is especially problematic when running LMD simulation until a late time horizon is required. This motivates the development of surrogate models capable of leaping forward in time, by skipping several consecutive time steps at-once. In this paper, we propose U-Shaped Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators (U-AFNO), a machine learning (ML) model inspired by recent advances in neural operator learning. U-AFNO employs U-Nets for extracting and reconstructing local features within the physical fields, and passes the latent space through a vision transformer (ViT) implemented in the Fourier space (AFNO). We use U-AFNOs to learn the dynamics mapping the field at a current time step into a later time step. We also identify global quantities of interest (QoI) describing the corrosion process (e.g. the deformation of the liquid-metal interface) and show that our proposed U-AFNO model is able to accurately predict the field dynamics, in-spite of the chaotic nature of LMD. Our model reproduces the key micro-structure statistics and QoIs with a level of accuracy on-par with the high-fidelity numerical solver. We also investigate the opportunity of using hybrid simulations, in which we alternate forward leap in time using the U-AFNO with high-fidelity time stepping. We demonstrate that while advantageous for some surrogate model design choices, our proposed U-AFNO model in fully auto-regressive settings consistently outperforms hybrid schemes.

Uncertainty Quantification of Graph Convolution Neural Network Models of Evolving Processes

The application of neural network models to scientific machine learning tasks has proliferated in recent years. In particular, neural network models have proved to be adept at modeling processes with spatial-temporal complexity. Nevertheless, these highly parameterized models have garnered skepticism in their ability to produce outputs with quantified error bounds over the regimes of interest. Hence there is a need to find uncertainty quantification methods that are suitable for neural networks. In this work we present comparisons of the parametric uncertainty quantification of neural networks modeling complex spatial-temporal processes with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Stein variational gradient descent and its projected variant. Specifically we apply these methods to graph convolutional neural network models of evolving systems modeled with recurrent neural network and neural ordinary differential equations architectures. We show that Stein variational inference is a viable alternative to Monte Carlo methods with some clear advantages for complex neural network models. For our exemplars, Stein variational interference gave similar uncertainty profiles through time compared to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, albeit with generally more generous variance.Projected Stein variational gradient descent also produced similar uncertainty profiles to the non-projected counterpart, but large reductions in the active weight space were confounded by the stability of the neural network predictions and the convoluted likelihood landscape.

Enhancing Polynomial Chaos Expansion Based Surrogate Modeling using a Novel Probabilistic Transfer Learning Strategy

In the field of surrogate modeling, polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) allows practitioners to construct inexpensive yet accurate surrogates to be used in place of the expensive forward model simulations. For black-box simulations, non-intrusive PCE allows the construction of these surrogates using a set of simulation response evaluations. In this context, the PCE coefficients can be obtained using linear regression, which is also known as point collocation or stochastic response surfaces. Regression exhibits better scalability and can handle noisy function evaluations in contrast to other non-intrusive approaches, such as projection. However, since over-sampling is generally advisable for the linear regression approach, the simulation requirements become prohibitive for expensive forward models. We propose to leverage transfer learning whereby knowledge gained through similar PCE surrogate construction tasks (source domains) is transferred to a new surrogate-construction task (target domain) which has a limited number of forward model simulations (training data). The proposed transfer learning strategy determines how much, if any, information to transfer using new techniques inspired by Bayesian modeling and data assimilation. The strategy is scrutinized using numerical investigations and applied to an engineering problem from the oil and gas industry.

Deep learning and multi-level featurization of graph representations of microstructural data

Many material response functions depend strongly on microstructure, such as inhomogeneities in phase or orientation. Homogenization presents the task of predicting the mean response of a sample of the microstructure to external loading for use in subgrid models and structure-property explorations. Although many microstructural fields have obvious segmentations, learning directly from the graph induced by the segmentation can be difficult because this representation does not encode all the information of the full field. We develop a means of deep learning of hidden features on the reduced graph given the native discretization and a segmentation of the initial input field. The features are associated with regions represented as nodes on the reduced graph. This reduced representation is then the basis for the subsequent multi-level/scale graph convolutional network model. There are a number of advantages of reducing the graph before fully processing with convolutional layers it, such as interpretable features and efficiency on large meshes. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed network relative to convolutional neural networks operating directly on the native discretization of the data using three physical exemplars.

A Survey of Constrained Gaussian Process Regression: Approaches and Implementation Challenges

Gaussian process regression is a popular Bayesian framework for surrogate modeling of expensive data sources. As part of a broader effort in scientific machine learning, many recent works have incorporated physical constraints or other a priori information within Gaussian process regression to supplement limited data and regularize the behavior of the model. We provide an overview and survey of several classes of Gaussian process constraints, including positivity or bound constraints, monotonicity and convexity constraints, differential equation constraints provided by linear PDEs, and boundary condition constraints. We compare the strategies behind each approach as well as the differences in implementation, concluding with a discussion of the computational challenges introduced by constraints.

Compressive sensing adaptation for polynomial chaos expansions

Basis adaptation in Homogeneous Chaos spaces rely on a suitable rotation of the underlying Gaussian germ. Several rotations have been proposed in the literature resulting in adaptations with different convergence properties. In this paper we present a new adaptation mechanism that builds on compressive sensing algorithms, resulting in a reduced polynomial chaos approximation with optimal sparsity. The developed adaptation algorithm consists of a two-step optimization procedure that computes the optimal coefficients and the input projection matrix of a low dimensional chaos expansion with respect to an optimally rotated basis. We demonstrate the attractive features of our algorithm through several numerical examples including the application on Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) calculations of turbulent combustion in a HIFiRE scramjet engine.