Predicting Large Language Model Capabilities on Closed-Book QA Tasks Using Only Information Available Prior to Training

The GPT-4 technical report from OpenAI suggests that model performance on specific tasks can be predicted prior to training, though methodologies remain unspecified. This approach is crucial for optimizing resource allocation and ensuring data alignment with target tasks. To achieve this vision, we focus on predicting performance on Closed-book Question Answering (CBQA) tasks, which are closely tied to pre-training data and knowledge retention. We address three major challenges: 1) mastering the entire pre-training process, especially data construction; 2) evaluating a model's knowledge retention; and 3) predicting task-specific knowledge retention using only information available prior to training. To tackle these challenges, we pre-train three large language models (i.e., 1.6B, 7B, and 13B) using 560k dollars and 520k GPU hours. We analyze the pre-training data with knowledge triples and assess knowledge retention using established methods. Additionally, we introduce the SMI metric, an information-theoretic measure that quantifies the relationship between pre-training data, model size, and task-specific knowledge retention. Our experiments reveal a strong linear correlation ($\text{R}^2 > 0.84$) between the SMI metric and the model's accuracy on CBQA tasks across models of varying sizes (i.e., 1.1B, 1.6B, 7B, and 13B). The dataset, model, and code are available at https://github.com/yuhui1038/SMI.

TransferTOD: A Generalizable Chinese Multi-Domain Task-Oriented Dialogue System with Transfer Capabilities

Task-oriented dialogue (TOD) systems aim to efficiently handle task-oriented conversations, including information gathering. How to utilize ToD accurately, efficiently and effectively for information gathering has always been a critical and challenging task. Recent studies have demonstrated that Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in dialogue, instruction generation, and reasoning, and can significantly enhance the performance of TOD through fine-tuning. However, current datasets primarily cater to user-led systems and are limited to predefined specific scenarios and slots, thereby necessitating improvements in the proactiveness, diversity, and capabilities of TOD. In this study, we present a detailed multi-domain task-oriented data construction process for conversations, and a Chinese dialogue dataset generated based on this process, \textbf{TransferTOD}, which authentically simulates human-machine dialogues in 30 popular life service scenarios. Leveraging this dataset, we trained a \textbf{TransferTOD-7B} model using full-parameter fine-tuning, showcasing notable abilities in slot filling and questioning. Our work has demonstrated its strong generalization capabilities in various downstream scenarios, significantly enhancing both data utilization efficiency and system performance. The data is released in https://github.com/KongLongGeFDU/TransferTOD.

From GPT-4 to Gemini and Beyond: Assessing the Landscape of MLLMs on Generalizability, Trustworthiness and Causality through Four Modalities

Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have shown impressive abilities in generating reasonable responses with respect to multi-modal contents. However, there is still a wide gap between the performance of recent MLLM-based applications and the expectation of the broad public, even though the most powerful OpenAI's GPT-4 and Google's Gemini have been deployed. This paper strives to enhance understanding of the gap through the lens of a qualitative study on the generalizability, trustworthiness, and causal reasoning capabilities of recent proprietary and open-source MLLMs across four modalities: ie, text, code, image, and video, ultimately aiming to improve the transparency of MLLMs. We believe these properties are several representative factors that define the reliability of MLLMs, in supporting various downstream applications. To be specific, we evaluate the closed-source GPT-4 and Gemini and 6 open-source LLMs and MLLMs. Overall we evaluate 230 manually designed cases, where the qualitative results are then summarized into 12 scores (ie, 4 modalities times 3 properties). In total, we uncover 14 empirical findings that are useful to understand the capabilities and limitations of both proprietary and open-source MLLMs, towards more reliable downstream multi-modal applications.