Can ChatGPT Overcome Behavioral Biases in the Financial Sector? Classify-and-Rethink: Multi-Step Zero-Shot Reasoning in the Gold Investment

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success recently, displaying exceptional capabilities in creating understandable and organized text. These LLMs have been utilized in diverse fields, such as clinical research, where domain-specific models like Med-Palm have achieved human-level performance. Recently, researchers have employed advanced prompt engineering to enhance the general reasoning ability of LLMs. Despite the remarkable success of zero-shot Chain-of-Thoughts (CoT) in solving general reasoning tasks, the potential of these methods still remains paid limited attention in the financial reasoning task.To address this issue, we explore multiple prompt strategies and incorporated semantic news information to improve LLMs' performance on financial reasoning tasks.To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to explore this important issue by applying ChatGPT to the gold investment.In this work, our aim is to investigate the financial reasoning capabilities of LLMs and their capacity to generate logical and persuasive investment opinions. We will use ChatGPT, one of the most powerful LLMs recently, and prompt engineering to achieve this goal. Our research will focus on understanding the ability of LLMs in sophisticated analysis and reasoning within the context of investment decision-making. Our study finds that ChatGPT with CoT prompt can provide more explainable predictions and overcome behavioral biases, which is crucial in finance-related tasks and can achieve higher investment returns.

Doubly Mild Generalization for Offline Reinforcement Learning

Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) suffers from the extrapolation error and value overestimation. From a generalization perspective, this issue can be attributed to the over-generalization of value functions or policies towards out-of-distribution (OOD) actions. Significant efforts have been devoted to mitigating such generalization, and recent in-sample learning approaches have further succeeded in entirely eschewing it. Nevertheless, we show that mild generalization beyond the dataset can be trusted and leveraged to improve performance under certain conditions. To appropriately exploit generalization in offline RL, we propose Doubly Mild Generalization (DMG), comprising (i) mild action generalization and (ii) mild generalization propagation. The former refers to selecting actions in a close neighborhood of the dataset to maximize the Q values. Even so, the potential erroneous generalization can still be propagated, accumulated, and exacerbated by bootstrapping. In light of this, the latter concept is introduced to mitigate the generalization propagation without impeding the propagation of RL learning signals. Theoretically, DMG guarantees better performance than the in-sample optimal policy in the oracle generalization scenario. Even under worst-case generalization, DMG can still control value overestimation at a certain level and lower bound the performance. Empirically, DMG achieves state-of-the-art performance across Gym-MuJoCo locomotion tasks and challenging AntMaze tasks. Moreover, benefiting from its flexibility in both generalization aspects, DMG enjoys a seamless transition from offline to online learning and attains strong online fine-tuning performance.

Choices are More Important than Efforts: LLM Enables Efficient Multi-Agent Exploration

With expansive state-action spaces, efficient multi-agent exploration remains a longstanding challenge in reinforcement learning. Although pursuing novelty, diversity, or uncertainty attracts increasing attention, redundant efforts brought by exploration without proper guidance choices poses a practical issue for the community. This paper introduces a systematic approach, termed LEMAE, choosing to channel informative task-relevant guidance from a knowledgeable Large Language Model (LLM) for Efficient Multi-Agent Exploration. Specifically, we ground linguistic knowledge from LLM into symbolic key states, that are critical for task fulfillment, in a discriminative manner at low LLM inference costs. To unleash the power of key states, we design Subspace-based Hindsight Intrinsic Reward (SHIR) to guide agents toward key states by increasing reward density. Additionally, we build the Key State Memory Tree (KSMT) to track transitions between key states in a specific task for organized exploration. Benefiting from diminishing redundant explorations, LEMAE outperforms existing SOTA approaches on the challenging benchmarks (e.g., SMAC and MPE) by a large margin, achieving a 10x acceleration in certain scenarios.

Hokoff: Real Game Dataset from Honor of Kings and its Offline Reinforcement Learning Benchmarks

The advancement of Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Offline Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) critically depends on the availability of high-quality, pre-collected offline datasets that represent real-world complexities and practical applications. However, existing datasets often fall short in their simplicity and lack of realism. To address this gap, we propose Hokoff, a comprehensive set of pre-collected datasets that covers both offline RL and offline MARL, accompanied by a robust framework, to facilitate further research. This data is derived from Honor of Kings, a recognized Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) game known for its intricate nature, closely resembling real-life situations. Utilizing this framework, we benchmark a variety of offline RL and offline MARL algorithms. We also introduce a novel baseline algorithm tailored for the inherent hierarchical action space of the game. We reveal the incompetency of current offline RL approaches in handling task complexity, generalization and multi-task learning.

LLM-Empowered State Representation for Reinforcement Learning

Conventional state representations in reinforcement learning often omit critical task-related details, presenting a significant challenge for value networks in establishing accurate mappings from states to task rewards. Traditional methods typically depend on extensive sample learning to enrich state representations with task-specific information, which leads to low sample efficiency and high time costs. Recently, surging knowledgeable large language models (LLM) have provided promising substitutes for prior injection with minimal human intervention. Motivated by this, we propose LLM-Empowered State Representation (LESR), a novel approach that utilizes LLM to autonomously generate task-related state representation codes which help to enhance the continuity of network mappings and facilitate efficient training. Experimental results demonstrate LESR exhibits high sample efficiency and outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by an average of 29% in accumulated reward in Mujoco tasks and 30% in success rates in Gym-Robotics tasks.

End-to-End $n$-ary Relation Extraction for Combination Drug Therapies

Combination drug therapies are treatment regimens that involve two or more drugs, administered more commonly for patients with cancer, HIV, malaria, or tuberculosis. Currently there are over 350K articles in PubMed that use the "combination drug therapy" MeSH heading with at least 10K articles published per year over the past two decades. Extracting combination therapies from scientific literature inherently constitutes an $n$-ary relation extraction problem. Unlike in the general $n$-ary setting where $n$ is fixed (e.g., drug-gene-mutation relations where $n=3$), extracting combination therapies is a special setting where $n \geq 2$ is dynamic, depending on each instance. Recently, Tiktinsky et al. (NAACL 2022) introduced a first of its kind dataset, CombDrugExt, for extracting such therapies from literature. Here, we use a sequence-to-sequence style end-to-end extraction method to achieve an F1-Score of $66.7\%$ on the CombDrugExt test set for positive (or effective) combinations. This is an absolute $\approx 5\%$ F1-score improvement even over the prior best relation classification score with spotted drug entities (hence, not end-to-end). Thus our effort introduces a state-of-the-art first model for end-to-end extraction that is already superior to the best prior non end-to-end model for this task. Our model seamlessly extracts all drug entities and relations in a single pass and is highly suitable for dynamic $n$-ary extraction scenarios.

COVID-19 event extraction from Twitter via extractive question answering with continuous prompts

As COVID-19 ravages the world, social media analytics could augment traditional surveys in assessing how the pandemic evolves and capturing consumer chatter that could help healthcare agencies in addressing it. This typically involves mining disclosure events that mention testing positive for the disease or discussions surrounding perceptions and beliefs in preventative or treatment options. The 2020 shared task on COVID-19 event extraction (conducted as part of the W-NUT workshop during the EMNLP conference) introduced a new Twitter dataset for benchmarking event extraction from COVID-19 tweets. In this paper, we cast the problem of event extraction as extractive question answering using recent advances in continuous prompting in language models. On the shared task test dataset, our approach leads to over 5% absolute micro-averaged F1-score improvement over prior best results, across all COVID-19 event slots. Our ablation study shows that continuous prompts have a major impact on the eventual performance.

Near-Optimal Regret Bounds for Multi-batch Reinforcement Learning

In this paper, we study the episodic reinforcement learning (RL) problem modeled by finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with constraint on the number of batches. The multi-batch reinforcement learning framework, where the agent is required to provide a time schedule to update policy before everything, which is particularly suitable for the scenarios where the agent suffers extensively from changing the policy adaptively. Given a finite-horizon MDP with $S$ states, $A$ actions and planning horizon $H$, we design a computational efficient algorithm to achieve near-optimal regret of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{SAH^3K\ln(1/\delta)})$\footnote{$\tilde{O}(\cdot)$ hides logarithmic terms of $(S,A,H,K)$} in $K$ episodes using $O\left(H+\log_2\log_2(K) \right)$ batches with confidence parameter $\delta$. To our best of knowledge, it is the first $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{SAH^3K})$ regret bound with $O(H+\log_2\log_2(K))$ batch complexity. Meanwhile, we show that to achieve $\tilde{O}(\mathrm{poly}(S,A,H)\sqrt{K})$ regret, the number of batches is at least $\Omega\left(H/\log_A(K)+ \log_2\log_2(K) \right)$, which matches our upper bound up to logarithmic terms. Our technical contribution are two-fold: 1) a near-optimal design scheme to explore over the unlearned states; 2) an computational efficient algorithm to explore certain directions with an approximated transition model.

Improved lightweight identification of agricultural diseases based on MobileNetV3

At present, the identification of agricultural pests and diseases has the problem that the model is not lightweight enough and difficult to apply. Based on MobileNetV3, this paper introduces the Coordinate Attention block. The parameters of MobileNetV3-large are reduced by 22%, the model size is reduced by 19.7%, and the accuracy is improved by 0.92%. The parameters of MobileNetV3-small are reduced by 23.4%, the model size is reduced by 18.3%, and the accuracy is increased by 0.40%. In addition, the improved MobileNetV3-small was migrated to Jetson Nano for testing. The accuracy increased by 2.48% to 98.31%, and the inference speed increased by 7.5%. It provides a reference for deploying the agricultural pest identification model to embedded devices.

Wasserstein Unsupervised Reinforcement Learning

Unsupervised reinforcement learning aims to train agents to learn a handful of policies or skills in environments without external reward. These pre-trained policies can accelerate learning when endowed with external reward, and can also be used as primitive options in hierarchical reinforcement learning. Conventional approaches of unsupervised skill discovery feed a latent variable to the agent and shed its empowerment on agent's behavior by mutual information (MI) maximization. However, the policies learned by MI-based methods cannot sufficiently explore the state space, despite they can be successfully identified from each other. Therefore we propose a new framework Wasserstein unsupervised reinforcement learning (WURL) where we directly maximize the distance of state distributions induced by different policies. Additionally, we overcome difficulties in simultaneously training N(N >2) policies, and amortizing the overall reward to each step. Experiments show policies learned by our approach outperform MI-based methods on the metric of Wasserstein distance while keeping high discriminability. Furthermore, the agents trained by WURL can sufficiently explore the state space in mazes and MuJoCo tasks and the pre-trained policies can be applied to downstream tasks by hierarchical learning.