Identifying Drift, Diffusion, and Causal Structure from Temporal Snapshots

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are a fundamental tool for modelling dynamic processes, including gene regulatory networks (GRNs), contaminant transport, financial markets, and image generation. However, learning the underlying SDE from observational data is a challenging task, especially when individual trajectories are not observable. Motivated by burgeoning research in single-cell datasets, we present the first comprehensive approach for jointly estimating the drift and diffusion of an SDE from its temporal marginals. Assuming linear drift and additive diffusion, we prove that these parameters are identifiable from marginals if and only if the initial distribution is not invariant to a class of generalized rotations, a condition that is satisfied by most distributions. We further prove that the causal graph of any SDE with additive diffusion can be recovered from the SDE parameters. To complement this theory, we adapt entropy-regularized optimal transport to handle anisotropic diffusion, and introduce APPEX (Alternating Projection Parameter Estimation from $X_0$), an iterative algorithm designed to estimate the drift, diffusion, and causal graph of an additive noise SDE, solely from temporal marginals. We show that each of these steps are asymptotically optimal with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and demonstrate APPEX's effectiveness on simulated data from linear additive noise SDEs.

Sparsest Models Elude Pruning: An Exposé of Pruning's Current Capabilities

Pruning has emerged as a promising approach for compressing large-scale models, yet its effectiveness in recovering the sparsest of models has not yet been explored. We conducted an extensive series of 485,838 experiments, applying a range of state-of-the-art pruning algorithms to a synthetic dataset we created, named the Cubist Spiral. Our findings reveal a significant gap in performance compared to ideal sparse networks, which we identified through a novel combinatorial search algorithm. We attribute this performance gap to current pruning algorithms' poor behaviour under overparameterization, their tendency to induce disconnected paths throughout the network, and their propensity to get stuck at suboptimal solutions, even when given the optimal width and initialization. This gap is concerning, given the simplicity of the network architectures and datasets used in our study. We hope that our research encourages further investigation into new pruning techniques that strive for true network sparsity.

Manifold Learning with Sparse Regularised Optimal Transport

Manifold learning is a central task in modern statistics and data science. Many datasets (cells, documents, images, molecules) can be represented as point clouds embedded in a high dimensional ambient space, however the degrees of freedom intrinsic to the data are usually far fewer than the number of ambient dimensions. The task of detecting a latent manifold along which the data are embedded is a prerequisite for a wide family of downstream analyses. Real-world datasets are subject to noisy observations and sampling, so that distilling information about the underlying manifold is a major challenge. We propose a method for manifold learning that utilises a symmetric version of optimal transport with a quadratic regularisation that constructs a sparse and adaptive affinity matrix, that can be interpreted as a generalisation of the bistochastic kernel normalisation. We prove that the resulting kernel is consistent with a Laplace-type operator in the continuous limit, establish robustness to heteroskedastic noise and exhibit these results in simulations. We identify a highly efficient computational scheme for computing this optimal transport for discrete data and demonstrate that it outperforms competing methods in a set of examples.

Quadratically Regularized Optimal Transport: nearly optimal potentials and convergence of discrete Laplace operators

We consider the conjecture proposed in Matsumoto, Zhang and Schiebinger (2022) suggesting that optimal transport with quadratic regularisation can be used to construct a graph whose discrete Laplace operator converges to the Laplace--Beltrami operator. We derive first order optimal potentials for the problem under consideration and find that the resulting solutions exhibit a surprising resemblance to the well-known Barenblatt--Prattle solution of the porous medium equation. Then, relying on these first order optimal potentials, we derive the pointwise $L^2$-limit of such discrete operators built from an i.i.d. random sample on a smooth compact manifold. Simulation results complementing the limiting distribution results are also presented.

Beyond kNN: Adaptive, Sparse Neighborhood Graphs via Optimal Transport

Nearest neighbour graphs are widely used to capture the geometry or topology of a dataset. One of the most common strategies to construct such a graph is based on selecting a fixed number k of nearest neighbours (kNN) for each point. However, the kNN heuristic may become inappropriate when sampling density or noise level varies across datasets. Strategies that try to get around this typically introduce additional parameters that need to be tuned. We propose a simple approach to construct an adaptive neighbourhood graph from a single parameter, based on quadratically regularised optimal transport. Our numerical experiments show that graphs constructed in this manner perform favourably in unsupervised and semi-supervised learning applications.

Trajectory Inference via Mean-field Langevin in Path Space

Trajectory inference aims at recovering the dynamics of a population from snapshots of its temporal marginals. To solve this task, a min-entropy estimator relative to the Wiener measure in path space was introduced by Lavenant et al. arXiv:2102.09204, and shown to consistently recover the dynamics of a large class of drift-diffusion processes from the solution of an infinite dimensional convex optimization problem. In this paper, we introduce a grid-free algorithm to compute this estimator. Our method consists in a family of point clouds (one per snapshot) coupled via Schr\"odinger bridges which evolve with noisy gradient descent. We study the mean-field limit of the dynamics and prove its global convergence at an exponential rate to the desired estimator. Overall, this leads to an inference method with end-to-end theoretical guarantees that solves an interpretable model for trajectory inference. We also present how to adapt the method to deal with mass variations, a useful extension when dealing with single cell RNA-sequencing data where cells can branch and die.

Towards a mathematical theory of trajectory inference

We devise a theoretical framework and a numerical method to infer trajectories of a stochastic process from snapshots of its temporal marginals. This problem arises in the analysis of single cell RNA-sequencing data, which provide high dimensional measurements of cell states but cannot track the trajectories of the cells over time. We prove that for a class of stochastic processes it is possible to recover the ground truth trajectories from limited samples of the temporal marginals at each time-point, and provide an efficient algorithm to do so in practice. The method we develop, Global Waddington-OT (gWOT), boils down to a smooth convex optimization problem posed globally over all time-points involving entropy-regularized optimal transport. We demonstrate that this problem can be solved efficiently in practice and yields good reconstructions, as we show on several synthetic and real datasets.