FinTSBridge: A New Evaluation Suite for Real-world Financial Prediction with Advanced Time Series Models

Despite the growing attention to time series forecasting in recent years, many studies have proposed various solutions to address the challenges encountered in time series prediction, aiming to improve forecasting performance. However, effectively applying these time series forecasting models to the field of financial asset pricing remains a challenging issue. There is still a need for a bridge to connect cutting-edge time series forecasting models with financial asset pricing. To bridge this gap, we have undertaken the following efforts: 1) We constructed three datasets from the financial domain; 2) We selected over ten time series forecasting models from recent studies and validated their performance in financial time series; 3) We developed new metrics, msIC and msIR, in addition to MSE and MAE, to showcase the time series correlation captured by the models; 4) We designed financial-specific tasks for these three datasets and assessed the practical performance and application potential of these forecasting models in important financial problems. We hope the developed new evaluation suite, FinTSBridge, can provide valuable insights into the effectiveness and robustness of advanced forecasting models in finanical domains.

Assessing Uncertainty in Stock Returns: A Gaussian Mixture Distribution-Based Method

This study seeks to advance the understanding and prediction of stock market return uncertainty through the application of advanced deep learning techniques. We introduce a novel deep learning model that utilizes a Gaussian mixture distribution to capture the complex, time-varying nature of asset return distributions in the Chinese stock market. By incorporating the Gaussian mixture distribution, our approach effectively characterizes short-term fluctuations and non-traditional features of stock returns, such as skewness and heavy tails, that are often overlooked by traditional models. Compared to GARCH models and their variants, our method demonstrates superior performance in volatility estimation, particularly during periods of heightened market volatility. It provides more accurate volatility forecasts and offers unique risk insights for different assets, thereby deepening the understanding of return uncertainty. Additionally, we propose a novel use of Code embedding which utilizes a bag-of-words approach to train hidden representations of stock codes and transforms the uncertainty attributes of stocks into high-dimensional vectors. These vectors are subsequently reduced to two dimensions, allowing the observation of similarity among different stocks. This visualization facilitates the identification of asset clusters with similar risk profiles, offering valuable insights for portfolio management and risk mitigation. Since we predict the uncertainty of returns by estimating their latent distribution, it is challenging to evaluate the return distribution when the true distribution is unobservable. However, we can measure it through the CRPS to assess how well the predicted distribution matches the true returns, and through MSE and QLIKE metrics to evaluate the error between the volatility level of the predicted distribution and proxy measures of true volatility.

A Theoretical Framework for Data Efficient Multi-Source Transfer Learning Based on Cramér-Rao Bound

Multi-source transfer learning provides an effective solution to data scarcity in real-world supervised learning scenarios by leveraging multiple source tasks. In this field, existing works typically use all available samples from sources in training, which constrains their training efficiency and may lead to suboptimal results. To address this, we propose a theoretical framework that answers the question: what is the optimal quantity of source samples needed from each source task to jointly train the target model? Specifically, we introduce a generalization error measure that aligns with cross-entropy loss, and minimize it based on the Cram\'er-Rao Bound to determine the optimal transfer quantity for each source task. Additionally, we develop an architecture-agnostic and data-efficient algorithm OTQMS to implement our theoretical results for training deep multi-source transfer learning models. Experimental studies on diverse architectures and two real-world benchmark datasets show that our proposed algorithm significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in both accuracy and data efficiency. The code and supplementary materials are available in https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Materials.

PSformer: Parameter-efficient Transformer with Segment Attention for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting remains a critical challenge across various domains, often complicated by high-dimensional data and long-term dependencies. This paper presents a novel transformer architecture for time series forecasting, incorporating two key innovations: parameter sharing (PS) and Spatial-Temporal Segment Attention (SegAtt). We also define the time series segment as the concatenation of sequence patches from the same positions across different variables. The proposed model, PSformer, reduces the number of training parameters through the parameter sharing mechanism, thereby improving model efficiency and scalability. The introduction of SegAtt could enhance the capability of capturing local spatio-temporal dependencies by computing attention over the segments, and improve global representation by integrating information across segments. The combination of parameter sharing and SegAtt significantly improves the forecasting performance. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that PSformer outperforms popular baselines and other transformer-based approaches in terms of accuracy and scalability, establishing itself as an accurate and scalable tool for time series forecasting.

Task Oriented In-Domain Data Augmentation

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown superior performance in various applications and fields. To achieve better performance on specialized domains such as law and advertisement, LLMs are often continue pre-trained on in-domain data. However, existing approaches suffer from two major issues. First, in-domain data are scarce compared with general domain-agnostic data. Second, data used for continual pre-training are not task-aware, such that they may not be helpful to downstream applications. We propose TRAIT, a task-oriented in-domain data augmentation framework. Our framework is divided into two parts: in-domain data selection and task-oriented synthetic passage generation. The data selection strategy identifies and selects a large amount of in-domain data from general corpora, and thus significantly enriches domain knowledge in the continual pre-training data. The synthetic passages contain guidance on how to use domain knowledge to answer questions about downstream tasks. By training on such passages, the model aligns with the need of downstream applications. We adapt LLMs to two domains: advertisement and math. On average, TRAIT improves LLM performance by 8% in the advertisement domain and 7.5% in the math domain.

Exploring Iterative Refinement with Diffusion Models for Video Grounding

Video grounding aims to localize the target moment in an untrimmed video corresponding to a given sentence query. Existing methods typically select the best prediction from a set of predefined proposals or directly regress the target span in a single-shot manner, resulting in the absence of a systematical prediction refinement process. In this paper, we propose DiffusionVG, a novel framework with diffusion models that formulates video grounding as a conditional generation task, where the target span is generated from Gaussian noise inputs and interatively refined in the reverse diffusion process. During training, DiffusionVG progressively adds noise to the target span with a fixed forward diffusion process and learns to recover the target span in the reverse diffusion process. In inference, DiffusionVG can generate the target span from Gaussian noise inputs by the learned reverse diffusion process conditioned on the video-sentence representations. Our DiffusionVG follows the encoder-decoder architecture, which firstly encodes the video-sentence features and iteratively denoises the predicted spans in its specialized span refining decoder. Without bells and whistles, our DiffusionVG demonstrates competitive or even superior performance compared to existing well-crafted models on mainstream Charades-STA and ActivityNet Captions benchmarks.

SSLCL: An Efficient Model-Agnostic Supervised Contrastive Learning Framework for Emotion Recognition in Conversations

Emotion recognition in conversations (ERC) is a rapidly evolving task within the natural language processing community, which aims to detect the emotions expressed by speakers during a conversation. Recently, a growing number of ERC methods have focused on leveraging supervised contrastive learning (SCL) to enhance the robustness and generalizability of learned features. However, current SCL-based approaches in ERC are impeded by the constraint of large batch sizes and the lack of compatibility with most existing ERC models. To address these challenges, we propose an efficient and model-agnostic SCL framework named Supervised Sample-Label Contrastive Learning with Soft-HGR Maximal Correlation (SSLCL), which eliminates the need for a large batch size and can be seamlessly integrated with existing ERC models without introducing any model-specific assumptions. Specifically, we introduce a novel perspective on utilizing label representations by projecting discrete labels into dense embeddings through a shallow multilayer perceptron, and formulate the training objective to maximize the similarity between sample features and their corresponding ground-truth label embeddings, while minimizing the similarity between sample features and label embeddings of disparate classes. Moreover, we innovatively adopt the Soft-HGR maximal correlation as a measure of similarity between sample features and label embeddings, leading to significant performance improvements over conventional similarity measures. Additionally, multimodal cues of utterances are effectively leveraged by SSLCL as data augmentations to boost model performances. Extensive experiments on two ERC benchmark datasets, IEMOCAP and MELD, demonstrate the compatibility and superiority of our proposed SSLCL framework compared to existing state-of-the-art SCL methods. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/TaoShi1998/SSLCL}.

Personalized Federated Learning with Feature Alignment and Classifier Collaboration

Data heterogeneity is one of the most challenging issues in federated learning, which motivates a variety of approaches to learn personalized models for participating clients. One such approach in deep neural networks based tasks is employing a shared feature representation and learning a customized classifier head for each client. However, previous works do not utilize the global knowledge during local representation learning and also neglect the fine-grained collaboration between local classifier heads, which limit the model generalization ability. In this work, we conduct explicit local-global feature alignment by leveraging global semantic knowledge for learning a better representation. Moreover, we quantify the benefit of classifier combination for each client as a function of the combining weights and derive an optimization problem for estimating optimal weights. Finally, extensive evaluation results on benchmark datasets with various heterogeneous data scenarios demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method. Code is available at https://github.com/JianXu95/FedPAC

Stabilizing and Improving Federated Learning with Non-IID Data and Client Dropout

The label distribution skew induced data heterogeniety has been shown to be a significant obstacle that limits the model performance in federated learning, which is particularly developed for collaborative model training over decentralized data sources while preserving user privacy. This challenge could be more serious when the participating clients are in unstable circumstances and dropout frequently. Previous work and our empirical observations demonstrate that the classifier head for classification task is more sensitive to label skew and the unstable performance of FedAvg mainly lies in the imbalanced training samples across different classes. The biased classifier head will also impact the learning of feature representations. Therefore, maintaining a balanced classifier head is of significant importance for building a better global model. To this end, we propose a simple yet effective framework by introducing a prior-calibrated softmax function for computing the cross-entropy loss and a prototype-based feature augmentation scheme to re-balance the local training, which are lightweight for edge devices and can facilitate the global model aggregation. The improved model performance over existing baselines in the presence of non-IID data and client dropout is demonstrated by conducting extensive experiments on benchmark classification tasks.

An Information-Theoretic Approach to Transferability in Task Transfer Learning

Task transfer learning is a popular technique in image processing applications that uses pre-trained models to reduce the supervision cost of related tasks. An important question is to determine task transferability, i.e. given a common input domain, estimating to what extent representations learned from a source task can help in learning a target task. Typically, transferability is either measured experimentally or inferred through task relatedness, which is often defined without a clear operational meaning. In this paper, we present a novel metric, H-score, an easily-computable evaluation function that estimates the performance of transferred representations from one task to another in classification problems using statistical and information theoretic principles. Experiments on real image data show that our metric is not only consistent with the empirical transferability measurement, but also useful to practitioners in applications such as source model selection and task transfer curriculum learning.