PowerMamba: A Deep State Space Model and Comprehensive Benchmark for Time Series Prediction in Electric Power Systems

The electricity sector is undergoing substantial transformations due to the rising electrification of demand, enhanced integration of renewable energy resources, and the emergence of new technologies. These changes are rendering the electric grid more volatile and unpredictable, making it difficult to maintain reliable operations. In order to address these issues, advanced time series prediction models are needed for closing the gap between the forecasted and actual grid outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a multivariate time series prediction model that combines traditional state space models with deep learning methods to simultaneously capture and predict the underlying dynamics of multiple time series. Additionally, we design a time series processing module that incorporates high-resolution external forecasts into sequence-to-sequence prediction models, achieving this with negligible increases in size and no loss of accuracy. We also release an extended dataset spanning five years of load, electricity price, ancillary service price, and renewable generation. To complement this dataset, we provide an open-access toolbox that includes our proposed model, the dataset itself, and several state-of-the-art prediction models, thereby creating a unified framework for benchmarking advanced machine learning approaches. Our findings indicate that the proposed model outperforms existing models across various prediction tasks, improving state-of-the-art prediction error by an average of 7% and decreasing model parameters by 43%.

Unsupervised Congestion Status Identification Using LMP Data

Having a better understanding of how locational marginal prices (LMPs) change helps in price forecasting and market strategy making. This paper investigates the fundamental distribution of the congestion part of LMPs in high-dimensional Euclidean space using an unsupervised approach. LMP models based on the lossless and lossy DC optimal power flow (DC-OPF) are analyzed to show the overlapping subspace property of the LMP data. The congestion part of LMPs is spanned by certain row vectors of the power transfer distribution factor (PTDF) matrix, and the subspace attributes of an LMP vector uniquely are found to reflect the instantaneous congestion status of all the transmission lines. The proposed method searches for the basis vectors that span the subspaces of congestion LMP data in hierarchical ways. In the bottom-up search, the data belonging to 1-dimensional subspaces are detected, and other data are projected on the orthogonal subspaces. This procedure is repeated until all the basis vectors are found or the basis gap appears. Top-down searching is used to address the basis gap by hyperplane detection with outliers. Once all the basis vectors are detected, the congestion status can be identified. Numerical experiments based on the IEEE 30-bus system, IEEE 118-bus system, Illinois 200-bus system, and Southwest Power Pool are conducted to show the performance of the proposed method.

A Perspective on Foundation Models for the Electric Power Grid

Foundation models (FMs) currently dominate news headlines. They employ advanced deep learning architectures to extract structural information autonomously from vast datasets through self-supervision. The resulting rich representations of complex systems and dynamics can be applied to many downstream applications. Therefore, FMs can find uses in electric power grids, challenged by the energy transition and climate change. In this paper, we call for the development of, and state why we believe in, the potential of FMs for electric grids. We highlight their strengths and weaknesses amidst the challenges of a changing grid. We argue that an FM learning from diverse grid data and topologies could unlock transformative capabilities, pioneering a new approach in leveraging AI to redefine how we manage complexity and uncertainty in the electric grid. Finally, we discuss a power grid FM concept, namely GridFM, based on graph neural networks and show how different downstream tasks benefit.

Meta-Learning-Based Adaptive Stability Certificates for Dynamical Systems

This paper addresses the problem of Neural Network (NN) based adaptive stability certification in a dynamical system. The state-of-the-art methods, such as Neural Lyapunov Functions (NLFs), use NN-based formulations to assess the stability of a non-linear dynamical system and compute a Region of Attraction (ROA) in the state space. However, under parametric uncertainty, if the values of system parameters vary over time, the NLF methods fail to adapt to such changes and may lead to conservative stability assessment performance. We circumvent this issue by integrating Model Agnostic Meta-learning (MAML) with NLFs and propose meta-NLFs. In this process, we train a meta-function that adapts to any parametric shifts and updates into an NLF for the system with new test-time parameter values. We demonstrate the stability assessment performance of meta-NLFs on some standard benchmark autonomous dynamical systems.

An Active Learning-based Approach for Hosting Capacity Analysis in Distribution Systems

With the increasing amount of distributed energy resources (DERs) integration, there is a significant need to model and analyze hosting capacity (HC) for future electric distribution grids. Hosting capacity analysis (HCA) examines the amount of DERs that can be safely integrated into the grid and is a challenging task in full generality because there are many possible integration of DERs in foresight. That is, there are numerous extreme points between feasible and infeasible sets. Moreover, HC depends on multiple factors such as (a) adoption patterns of DERs that depend on socio-economic behaviors and (b) how DERs are controlled and managed. These two factors are intrinsic to the problem space because not all integration of DERs may be centrally planned, and could largely change our understanding about HC. This paper addresses the research gap by capturing the two factors (a) and (b) in HCA and by identifying a few most insightful HC scenarios at the cost of domain knowledge. We propose a data-driven HCA framework and introduce active learning in HCA to effectively explore scenarios. Active learning in HCA and characteristics of HC with respect to the two factors (a) and (b) are illustrated in a 3-bus example. Next, detailed large-scale studies are proposed to understand the significance of (a) and (b). Our findings suggest that HC and its interpretations significantly change subject to the two factors (a) and (b).

Energy System Digitization in the Era of AI: A Three-Layered Approach towards Carbon Neutrality

The transition towards carbon-neutral electricity is one of the biggest game changers in addressing climate change since it addresses the dual challenges of removing carbon emissions from the two largest sectors of emitters: electricity and transportation. The transition to a carbon-neutral electric grid poses significant challenges to conventional paradigms of modern grid planning and operation. Much of the challenge arises from the scale of the decision making and the uncertainty associated with the energy supply and demand. Artificial Intelligence (AI) could potentially have a transformative impact on accelerating the speed and scale of carbon-neutral transition, as many decision making processes in the power grid can be cast as classic, though challenging, machine learning tasks. We point out that to amplify AI's impact on carbon-neutral transition of the electric energy systems, the AI algorithms originally developed for other applications should be tailored in three layers of technology, markets, and policy.

Towards Autonomous Atlas-based Ultrasound Acquisitions in Presence of Articulated Motion

Robotic ultrasound (US) imaging aims at overcoming some of the limitations of free-hand US examinations, e.g. difficulty in guaranteeing intra- and inter-operator repeatability. However, due to anatomical and physiological variations between patients and relative movement of anatomical substructures, it is challenging to robustly generate optimal trajectories to examine the anatomies of interest, in particular, when they comprise articulated joints. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a vision-based approach allowing autonomous robotic US limb scanning. To this end, an atlas MRI template of a human arm with annotated vascular structures is used to generate trajectories and register and project them onto patients' skin surfaces for robotic US acquisition. To effectively segment and accurately reconstruct the targeted 3D vessel, we make use of spatial continuity in consecutive US frames by incorporating channel attention modules into a U-Net-type neural network. The automatic trajectory generation method is evaluated on six volunteers with various articulated joint angles. In all cases, the system can successfully acquire the planned vascular structure on volunteers' limbs. For one volunteer the MRI scan was also available, which allows the evaluation of the average radius of the scanned artery from US images, resulting in a radius estimation ($1.2\pm0.05~mm$) comparable to the MRI ground truth ($1.2\pm0.04~mm$).

Distributed Learning of Neural Lyapunov Functions for Large-Scale Networked Dissipative Systems

This paper considers the problem of characterizing the stability region of a large-scale networked system comprised of dissipative nonlinear subsystems, in a distributed and computationally tractable way. One standard approach to estimate the stability region of a general nonlinear system is to first find a Lyapunov function for the system and characterize its region of attraction as the stability region. However, classical approaches, such as sum-of-squares methods and quadratic approximation, for finding a Lyapunov function either do not scale to large systems or give very conservative estimates for the stability region. In this context, we propose a new distributed learning based approach by exploiting the dissipativity structure of the subsystems. Our approach has two parts: the first part is a distributed approach to learn the storage functions (similar to the Lyapunov functions) for all the subsystems, and the second part is a distributed optimization approach to find the Lyapunov function for the networked system using the learned storage functions of the subsystems. We demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed approach through extensive case studies in microgrid networks.

Massively Digitized Power Grid: Opportunities and Challenges of Use-inspired AI

This article presents a use-inspired perspective of the opportunities and challenges in a massively digitized power grid. It argues that the intricate interplay of data availability, computing capability, and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm development are the three key factors driving the adoption of digitized solutions in the power grid. The impact of these three factors on critical functions of power system operation and planning practices are reviewed and illustrated with industrial practice case studies. Open challenges and research opportunities for data, computing, and AI algorithms are articulated within the context of the power industry's tremendous decarbonization efforts.

OpenGridGym: An Open-Source AI-Friendly Toolkit for Distribution Market Simulation

This paper presents OpenGridGym, an open-source Python-based package that allows for seamless integration of distribution market simulation with state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) decision-making algorithms. We present the architecture and design choice for the proposed framework, elaborate on how users interact with OpenGridGym, and highlight its value by providing multiple cases to demonstrate its use. Four modules are used in any simulation: (1) the physical grid, (2) market mechanisms, (3) a set of trainable agents which interact with the former two modules, and (4) environment module that connects and coordinates the above three. We provide templates for each of those four, but they are easily interchangeable with custom alternatives. Several case studies are presented to illustrate the capability and potential of this toolkit in helping researchers address key design and operational questions in distribution electricity markets.