Coherent Hierarchical Probabilistic Forecasting of Electric Vehicle Charging Demand

The growing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) significantly changes typical load curves in smart grids. With the development of fast charging technology, the volatility of EV charging demand is increasing, which requires additional flexibility for real-time power balance. The forecasting of EV charging demand involves probabilistic modeling of high dimensional time series dynamics across diverse electric vehicle charging stations (EVCSs). This paper studies the forecasting problem of multiple EVCS in a hierarchical probabilistic manner. For each charging station, a deep learning model based on a partial input convex neural network (PICNN) is trained to predict the day-ahead charging demand's conditional distribution, preventing the common quantile crossing problem in traditional quantile regression models. Then, differentiable convex optimization layers (DCLs) are used to reconcile the scenarios sampled from the distributions to yield coherent scenarios that satisfy the hierarchical constraint. It learns a better weight matrix for adjusting the forecasting results of different targets in a machine-learning approach compared to traditional optimization-based hierarchical reconciling methods. Numerical experiments based on real-world EV charging data are conducted to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.

Goal-Oriented Wireless Communication Resource Allocation for Cyber-Physical Systems

The proliferation of novel industrial applications at the wireless edge, such as smart grids and vehicle networks, demands the advancement of cyber-physical systems. The performance of CPSs is closely linked to the last-mile wireless communication networks, which often become bottlenecks due to their inherent limited resources. Current CPS operations often treat wireless communication networks as unpredictable and uncontrollable variables, ignoring the potential adaptability of wireless networks, which results in inefficient and overly conservative CPS operations. Meanwhile, current wireless communications often focus more on throughput and other transmission-related metrics instead of CPS goals. In this study, we introduce the framework of goal-oriented wireless communication resource allocations, accounting for the semantics and significance of data for CPS operation goals. This guarantees optimal CPS performance from a cybernetic standpoint. We formulate a bandwidth allocation problem aimed at maximizing the information utility gain of transmitted data brought to CPS operation goals. Since the goal-oriented bandwidth allocation problem is a large-scale combinational problem, we propose a divide-and-conquer and greedy solution algorithm. The information utility gain is first approximately decomposed into marginal utility information gains and computed in a parallel manner. Subsequently, the bandwidth allocation problem is reformulated as a knapsack problem, which can be further solved greedily with a guaranteed sub-optimality gap. We further demonstrate how our proposed goal-oriented bandwidth allocation algorithm can be applied in four potential CPS applications, including data-driven decision-making, edge learning, federated learning, and distributed optimization.