Beyond Fixed Variables: Expanding-variate Time Series Forecasting via Flat Scheme and Spatio-temporal Focal Learning

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) has long been a key research focus. Traditionally, these studies assume a fixed number of variables, but in real-world applications, Cyber-Physical Systems often expand as new sensors are deployed, increasing variables in MTSF. In light of this, we introduce a novel task, Expanding-variate Time Series Forecasting (EVTSF). This task presents unique challenges, specifically (1) handling inconsistent data shapes caused by adding new variables, and (2) addressing imbalanced spatio-temporal learning, where expanding variables have limited observed data due to the necessity for timely operation. To address these challenges, we propose STEV, a flexible spatio-temporal forecasting framework. STEV includes a new Flat Scheme to tackle the inconsistent data shape issue, which extends the graph-based spatio-temporal modeling architecture into 1D space by flattening the 2D samples along the variable dimension, making the model variable-scale-agnostic while still preserving dynamic spatial correlations through a holistic graph. We introduce a novel Spatio-temporal Focal Learning strategy that incorporates a negative filter to resolve potential conflicts between contrastive learning and graph representation, and a focal contrastive loss as its core to guide the framework to focus on optimizing the expanding variables. We benchmark EVTSF performance using three real-world datasets and compare it against three potential solutions employing SOTA MTSF models tailored for EVSTF. Experimental results show that STEV significantly outperforms its competitors, particularly on expanding variables. Notably, STEV, with only 5% of observations from the expanding period, is on par with SOTA MTSF models trained with complete observations. Further exploration of various expanding strategies underscores the generalizability of STEV in real-world applications.

Not All Data are Good Labels: On the Self-supervised Labeling for Time Series Forecasting

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is a crucial task in various domains, yet existing TSF models rely heavily on high-quality data and insufficiently exploit all available data. This paper explores a novel self-supervised approach to re-label time series datasets by inherently constructing candidate datasets. During the optimization of a simple reconstruction network, intermediates are used as pseudo labels in a self-supervised paradigm, improving generalization for any predictor. We introduce the Self-Correction with Adaptive Mask (SCAM), which discards overfitted components and selectively replaces them with pseudo labels generated from reconstructions. Additionally, we incorporate Spectral Norm Regularization (SNR) to further suppress overfitting from a loss landscape perspective. Our experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that SCAM consistently improves the performance of various backbone models. This work offers a new perspective on constructing datasets and enhancing the generalization of TSF models through self-supervised learning.

Train Small, Infer Large: Memory-Efficient LoRA Training for Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly advanced natural language processing with exceptional task generalization capabilities. Low-Rank Adaption (LoRA) offers a cost-effective fine-tuning solution, freezing the original model parameters and training only lightweight, low-rank adapter matrices. However, the memory footprint of LoRA is largely dominated by the original model parameters. To mitigate this, we propose LoRAM, a memory-efficient LoRA training scheme founded on the intuition that many neurons in over-parameterized LLMs have low training utility but are essential for inference. LoRAM presents a unique twist: it trains on a pruned (small) model to obtain pruned low-rank matrices, which are then recovered and utilized with the original (large) model for inference. Additionally, minimal-cost continual pre-training, performed by the model publishers in advance, aligns the knowledge discrepancy between pruned and original models. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of LoRAM across various pruning strategies and downstream tasks. For a model with 70 billion parameters, LoRAM enables training on a GPU with only 20G HBM, replacing an A100-80G GPU for LoRA training and 15 GPUs for full fine-tuning. Specifically, QLoRAM implemented by structured pruning combined with 4-bit quantization, for LLaMA-3.1-70B (LLaMA-2-70B), reduces the parameter storage cost that dominates the memory usage in low-rank matrix training by 15.81$\times$ (16.95$\times$), while achieving dominant performance gains over both the original LLaMA-3.1-70B (LLaMA-2-70B) and LoRA-trained LLaMA-3.1-8B (LLaMA-2-13B).

Preventing the Popular Item Embedding Based Attack in Federated Recommendations

Privacy concerns have led to the rise of federated recommender systems (FRS), which can create personalized models across distributed clients. However, FRS is vulnerable to poisoning attacks, where malicious users manipulate gradients to promote their target items intentionally. Existing attacks against FRS have limitations, as they depend on specific models and prior knowledge, restricting their real-world applicability. In our exploration of practical FRS vulnerabilities, we devise a model-agnostic and prior-knowledge-free attack, named PIECK (Popular Item Embedding based Attack). The core module of PIECK is popular item mining, which leverages embedding changes during FRS training to effectively identify the popular items. Built upon the core module, PIECK branches into two diverse solutions: The PIECKIPE solution employs an item popularity enhancement module, which aligns the embeddings of targeted items with the mined popular items to increase item exposure. The PIECKUEA further enhances the robustness of the attack by using a user embedding approximation module, which approximates private user embeddings using mined popular items. Upon identifying PIECK, we evaluate existing federated defense methods and find them ineffective against PIECK, as poisonous gradients inevitably overwhelm the cold target items. We then propose a novel defense method by introducing two regularization terms during user training, which constrain item popularity enhancement and user embedding approximation while preserving FRS performance. We evaluate PIECK and its defense across two base models, three real datasets, four top-tier attacks, and six general defense methods, affirming the efficacy of both PIECK and its defense.

Time-VLM: Exploring Multimodal Vision-Language Models for Augmented Time Series Forecasting

Recent advancements in time series forecasting have explored augmenting models with text or vision modalities to improve accuracy. While text provides contextual understanding, it often lacks fine-grained temporal details. Conversely, vision captures intricate temporal patterns but lacks semantic context, limiting the complementary potential of these modalities. To address this, we propose Time-VLM, a novel multimodal framework that leverages pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to bridge temporal, visual, and textual modalities for enhanced forecasting. Our framework comprises three key components: (1) a Retrieval-Augmented Learner, which extracts enriched temporal features through memory bank interactions; (2) a Vision-Augmented Learner, which encodes time series as informative images; and (3) a Text-Augmented Learner, which generates contextual textual descriptions. These components collaborate with frozen pre-trained VLMs to produce multimodal embeddings, which are then fused with temporal features for final prediction. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets demonstrate that Time-VLM achieves superior performance, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios, thereby establishing a new direction for multimodal time series forecasting.

Mixture of neural fields for heterogeneous reconstruction in cryo-EM

Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) is an experimental technique for protein structure determination that images an ensemble of macromolecules in near-physiological contexts. While recent advances enable the reconstruction of dynamic conformations of a single biomolecular complex, current methods do not adequately model samples with mixed conformational and compositional heterogeneity. In particular, datasets containing mixtures of multiple proteins require the joint inference of structure, pose, compositional class, and conformational states for 3D reconstruction. Here, we present Hydra, an approach that models both conformational and compositional heterogeneity fully ab initio by parameterizing structures as arising from one of K neural fields. We employ a new likelihood-based loss function and demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on synthetic datasets composed of mixtures of proteins with large degrees of conformational variability. We additionally demonstrate Hydra on an experimental dataset of a cellular lysate containing a mixture of different protein complexes. Hydra expands the expressivity of heterogeneous reconstruction methods and thus broadens the scope of cryo-EM to increasingly complex samples.

Convergence Rate Analysis of LION

The LION (evoLved sIgn mOmeNtum) optimizer for deep neural network training was found by Google via program search, with the simple sign update yet showing impressive performance in training large scale networks. Although previous studies have investigated its convergence properties, a comprehensive analysis, especially the convergence rate, is still desirable. Recognizing that LION can be regarded as solving a specific constrained problem, this paper focuses on demonstrating its convergence to the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) point at the rate of $\cal O(\sqrt{d}K^{-1/4})$ measured by gradient $\ell_1$ norm, where $d$ is the problem dimension and $K$ is the number of iteration steps. Step further, we remove the constraint and establish that LION converges to the critical point of the general unconstrained problem at the same rate. This rate not only delivers the currently optimal dependence on the problem dimension $d$ but also tightly matches the theoretical lower bound for nonconvex stochastic optimization algorithms, which is typically measured using the gradient $\ell_2$ norm, with respect to the number of iterations $K$. Through extensive experiments, we not only demonstrate that LION achieves lower loss and higher performance compared to standard SGD, but also empirically confirm that the gradient $\ell_1/\ell_2$ norm ratio aligns with $\Theta(\sqrt{d})$, thus proving that our convergence rate matches the theoretical lower bound with respect to $d$ in the empirical sense.

KcMF: A Knowledge-compliant Framework for Schema and Entity Matching with Fine-tuning-free LLMs

Schema and entity matching tasks are crucial for data integration and management. While large language models (LLMs) have shown promising results in these tasks, they suffer from hallucinations and confusion about task instructions. In this paper, we present the Knowledge-Compliant Matching Framework (KcMF), an LLM-based approach that addresses these issues without the need for domain-specific fine-tuning. KcMF employs a pseudo-code-based task decomposition strategy to adopt task-specific natural language statements that guide LLM reasoning and reduce confusion. We also propose two mechanisms, Dataset as Knowledge (DaK) and Example as Knowledge (EaK), to build domain knowledge sets when unstructured domain knowledge is lacking. Additionally, we introduce a result-ensembling strategy to leverage multiple knowledge sources and suppress poorly formatted outputs. Comprehensive evaluations on schema and entity matching tasks demonstrate that KcMF outperforms previous non-LLM state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods by an average F1 score of 22.9% and competes effectively with SOTA fine-tuned LLMs. Moreover, KcMF generalizes well across different LLMs.

An End-to-End Model for Time Series Classification In the Presence of Missing Values

Time series classification with missing data is a prevalent issue in time series analysis, as temporal data often contain missing values in practical applications. The traditional two-stage approach, which handles imputation and classification separately, can result in sub-optimal performance as label information is not utilized in the imputation process. On the other hand, a one-stage approach can learn features under missing information, but feature representation is limited as imputed errors are propagated in the classification process. To overcome these challenges, this study proposes an end-to-end neural network that unifies data imputation and representation learning within a single framework, allowing the imputation process to take advantage of label information. Differing from previous methods, our approach places less emphasis on the accuracy of imputation data and instead prioritizes classification performance. A specifically designed multi-scale feature learning module is implemented to extract useful information from the noise-imputation data. The proposed model is evaluated on 68 univariate time series datasets from the UCR archive, as well as a multivariate time series dataset with various missing data ratios and 4 real-world datasets with missing information. The results indicate that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for incomplete time series classification, particularly in scenarios with high levels of missing data.

Tabular Data Augmentation for Machine Learning: Progress and Prospects of Embracing Generative AI

Machine learning (ML) on tabular data is ubiquitous, yet obtaining abundant high-quality tabular data for model training remains a significant obstacle. Numerous works have focused on tabular data augmentation (TDA) to enhance the original table with additional data, thereby improving downstream ML tasks. Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging the capabilities of generative AI for TDA. Therefore, we believe it is time to provide a comprehensive review of the progress and future prospects of TDA, with a particular emphasis on the trending generative AI. Specifically, we present an architectural view of the TDA pipeline, comprising three main procedures: pre-augmentation, augmentation, and post-augmentation. Pre-augmentation encompasses preparation tasks that facilitate subsequent TDA, including error handling, table annotation, table simplification, table representation, table indexing, table navigation, schema matching, and entity matching. Augmentation systematically analyzes current TDA methods, categorized into retrieval-based methods, which retrieve external data, and generation-based methods, which generate synthetic data. We further subdivide these methods based on the granularity of the augmentation process at the row, column, cell, and table levels. Post-augmentation focuses on the datasets, evaluation and optimization aspects of TDA. We also summarize current trends and future directions for TDA, highlighting promising opportunities in the era of generative AI. In addition, the accompanying papers and related resources are continuously updated and maintained in the GitHub repository at https://github.com/SuDIS-ZJU/awesome-tabular-data-augmentation to reflect ongoing advancements in the field.