Dirichlet-Guided Group Forecasting for Alleviating Over-smoothing in Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting often suffers from over-smoothing, especially when future dynamics are multi-modal. Forecasts may follow the coarse trend of the observed future, but fail to preserve sharp changes, oscillations, turning points, and regime transitions that define plausible dynamic evolution. In this work, we revisit over-smoothing from the perspective of latent dynamical mode compression: under partial observation and single-realization supervision, multiple plausible future modes can be weakened, merged, or averaged during forecasting. Based on this view, we propose Dirichlet-Guided Group Forecasting (DGF), a mode-preserving forecasting framework that explicitly models multiple mode-conditioned predictive distributions and uncertainty over their selection probabilities. DGF uses a Dirichlet-guided hierarchical sampling mechanism and reward-based optimization to encourage forecasts that are accurate, dynamically consistent, and mode-distinct. Extensive experiments on real-world forecasting benchmarks show that DGF reduces over-smoothing while improving forecasting accuracy, diversity, and dynamical consistency.

Generalizing Graph Foundation Models via Hyperbolic Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Graph foundation models (GFMs) emerged as a dominant paradigm in graph representation learning by leveraging large-scale pre-training for cross-domain inference. However, the parameterized knowledge encoded within these models is insufficient to cope with distribution shifts, limiting their generalization ability. To mitigate this issue, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has been introduced to incorporate external knowledge at inference time. Nevertheless, existing RAG frameworks operating in Euclidean space suffer from a fundamental geometric limitation: the polynomial volume growth of Euclidean space is inherently mismatched with the tree-structured external knowledge bases. This mismatch leads to the loss of semantic granularity in retrieval and gives rise to the hubness phenomenon.To address this limitation, we propose a Hyperbolic Retrieval-Augmented Generation (HyRAG) framework designed to enhance the generalization capabilities of GFMs. Specifically, the introduced Hyperbolic Knowledge Indexing module retains the tree-like hierarchies of the external knowledge base by modeling them within hyperbolic space. The Multi-granularity Retrieval module then provides GFMs with the global semantic anchors and local semantic nuances through coarse-grained and fine-grained knowledge retrieval, respectively. Finally, the Dual-path Fusion module achieves effective knowledge integration for graph tasks at both the feature and structural levels. Experiments on multiple graph benchmarks demonstrate significant improvements in the zero-shot setting, highlighting the generalization of our method for robust GFMs inference.

PAPO-VLA: Planning-Aware Policy Optimization for Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models show promising ability in language-guided robotic tasks. However, making VLA policies reliable remains challenging, because a manipulation task is completed through closed-loop interaction, where each action affects subsequent execution. To analyze this problem, we revisit VLA policy during execution and argue that a VLA policy acts both as a planner, which makes task-oriented decisions that change the direction of execution, and as an executor, which realizes these decisions through dense continuous actions. This view suggests that improving VLA reliability requires particular attention to planning actions. Existing optimization methods can imitate actions or improve complete trajectories, but they usually do not explicitly identify planning actions or measure their importance for task success. To address this issue, we propose Planning-Aware Policy Optimization for VLA models (PAPO-VLA). PAPO-VLA first identifies planning actions by jointly considering action variation and trajectory outcome, then estimates their importance through causal sufficiency and causal necessity, and finally incorporates this importance into GRPO advantage estimation. In this way, more important planning actions receive stronger optimization emphasis, while the whole trajectory is still optimized by trajectory-level feedback. Experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of PAPO-VLA.

TIDE-Bench: Task-Aware and Diagnostic Evaluation of Tool-Integrated Reasoning

Tool-integrated reasoning has emerged as a promising paradigm for enhancing large language models with external computation, retrieval, and execution capabilities. However, the field still lacks a high-quality and unified evaluation benchmark, and existing TIR evaluations remain limited in dataset quality, task diversity, diagnostic comprehensiveness, and evaluation efficiency. In this work, we introduce TIDE-Bench, a holistic and efficient benchmark for evaluating TIR methods, featuring three key advantages. First, it provides diverse task settings, combining widely used mathematical reasoning and knowledge-intensive QA tasks with two newly designed tasks, namely the tool-grounded experimental design task and the dynamic interactive task, to probe models' abilities in complex tool invocation and multi-tool coordination. Second, TIDE-Bench adopts a comprehensive yet task-aware evaluation protocol, jointly measuring final answer quality, process reliability, tool-use efficiency, and inference cost across heterogeneous task settings. Third, TIDE-Bench constructs high-quality and discriminative evaluation sets by filtering low-discrimination instances from existing datasets, substantially reducing evaluation cost while focusing on more challenging samples. Extensive experiments on multiple foundation models and TIR methods reveal persistent bottlenecks in tool grounding, offering insights for future TIR research.

CAMD: Coverage-Aware Multimodal Decoding for Efficient Reasoning of Multimodal Large Language Models

Recent advances in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have shown impressive reasoning capabilities across vision-language tasks, yet still face the challenge of compute-difficulty mismatch. Through empirical analyses, we identify that existing decoding methods may waste compute on easy cases while underserving hard ones, affecting both model effectiveness and efficiency. To address this issue, we first develop a theoretical framework that links sampling coverage, instance difficulty, and residual risk. Our analysis reveals that multimodal reasoning exhibits a heavy-tailed difficulty distribution; a small subset of hard or ambiguous samples dominates the residual failure probability. Based on this insight, we propose Coverage-Aware Multimodal Decoding (CAMD), an adaptive inference mechanism that dynamically allocates computation according to estimated uncertainty. CAMD integrates evidence-weighted scoring, posterior coverage estimation, and sequential Bayesian updating to balance efficiency and reliability under a limited token budget. Experiments on various benchmark datasets and baselines demonstrate the effectiveness and advantages of our approach.

Closing the Loop: A Control-Theoretic Framework for Provably Stable Time Series Forecasting with LLMs

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown exceptional potential in time series forecasting, leveraging their inherent sequential reasoning capabilities to model complex temporal dynamics. However, existing approaches typically employ a naive autoregressive generation strategy. We identify a critical theoretical flaw in this paradigm: during inference, the model operates in an open-loop manner, consuming its own generated outputs recursively. This leads to inevitable error accumulation (exposure bias), where minor early deviations cascade into significant trajectory drift over long horizons. In this paper, we reformulate autoregressive forecasting through the lens of control theory, proposing \textbf{F-LLM} (Feedback-driven LLM), a novel closed-loop framework. Unlike standard methods that passively propagate errors, F-LLM actively stabilizes the trajectory via a learnable residual estimator (Observer) and a feedback controller. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical guarantee that our closed-loop mechanism ensures uniformly bounded error, provided the base model satisfies a local Lipschitz constraint. Extensive experiments demonstrate that F-LLM significantly mitigates error propagation, achieving good performance on time series benchmarks.

Adaptive Uncertainty-Aware Tree Search for Robust Reasoning

Inference-time reasoning scaling has significantly advanced the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) in complex problem-solving. A prevalent approach involves external search guided by Process Reward Models (PRMs). However, a fundamental limitation of this framework is the epistemic uncertainty of PRMs when evaluating reasoning paths that deviate from their training distribution. In this work, we conduct a systematic analysis of this challenge. We first provide empirical evidence that PRMs exhibit high uncertainty and unreliable scoring on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. We then establish a theoretical framework proving that while standard search incurs linear regret accumulation, an uncertainty-aware strategy can achieve sublinear regret. Motivated by these findings, we propose Uncertainty-Aware Tree Search (UATS), a unified method that estimates uncertainty via Monte Carlo Dropout and dynamically allocates compute budget using a reinforcement learning-based controller. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach effectively mitigates the impact of OOD errors.

On the Plasticity and Stability for Post-Training Large Language Models

Training stability remains a critical bottleneck for Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), often manifesting as a trade-off between reasoning plasticity and general capability retention. We identify a root cause as the geometric conflict between plasticity and stability gradients, which leads to destructive interference. Crucially, we argue that deterministic projection methods are suboptimal for GRPO as they overlook the intrinsic stochasticity of group-based gradient estimates. To address this, we propose Probabilistic Conflict Resolution (PCR), a Bayesian framework that models gradients as random variables. PCR dynamically arbitrates conflicts via an uncertainty-aware ``soft projection'' mechanism, optimizing the signal-to-noise ratio. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PCR significantly smooths the training trajectory and achieves superior performance in various reasoning tasks.

Towards Generalizable Reasoning: Group Causal Counterfactual Policy Optimization for LLM Reasoning

Large language models (LLMs) excel at complex tasks with advances in reasoning capabilities. However, existing reward mechanisms remain tightly coupled to final correctness and pay little attention to the underlying reasoning process: trajectories with sound reasoning but wrong answers receive low credit, while lucky guesses with flawed logic may be highly rewarded, affecting reasoning generalization. From a causal perspective, we interpret multi-candidate reasoning for a fixed question as a family of counterfactual experiments with theoretical supports. Building on this, we propose Group Causal Counterfactual Policy Optimization to explicitly train LLMs to learn generalizable reasoning patterns. It proposes an episodic causal counterfactual reward that jointly captures (i) robustness, encouraging the answer distribution induced by a reasoning step to remain stable under counterfactual perturbations; and (ii) effectiveness, enforcing sufficient variability so that the learned reasoning strategy can transfer across questions. We then construct token-level advantages from this reward and optimize the policy, encouraging LLMs to favor reasoning patterns that are process-valid and counterfactually robust. Extensive experiments on diverse benchmarks demonstrate its advantages.

Causal Front-Door Adjustment for Robust Jailbreak Attacks on LLMs

Safety alignment mechanisms in Large Language Models (LLMs) often operate as latent internal states, obscuring the model's inherent capabilities. Building on this observation, we model the safety mechanism as an unobserved confounder from a causal perspective. Then, we propose the \textbf{C}ausal \textbf{F}ront-Door \textbf{A}djustment \textbf{A}ttack ({\textbf{CFA}}$^2$) to jailbreak LLM, which is a framework that leverages Pearl's Front-Door Criterion to sever the confounding associations for robust jailbreaking. Specifically, we employ Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) to physically strip defense-related features, isolating the core task intent. We further reduce computationally expensive marginalization to a deterministic intervention with low inference complexity. Experiments demonstrate that {CFA}$^2$ achieves state-of-the-art attack success rates while offering a mechanistic interpretation of the jailbreaking process.