Not All Frequencies Are Created Equal:Towards a Dynamic Fusion of Frequencies in Time-Series Forecasting

Long-term time series forecasting is a long-standing challenge in various applications. A central issue in time series forecasting is that methods should expressively capture long-term dependency. Furthermore, time series forecasting methods should be flexible when applied to different scenarios. Although Fourier analysis offers an alternative to effectively capture reusable and periodic patterns to achieve long-term forecasting in different scenarios, existing methods often assume high-frequency components represent noise and should be discarded in time series forecasting. However, we conduct a series of motivation experiments and discover that the role of certain frequencies varies depending on the scenarios. In some scenarios, removing high-frequency components from the original time series can improve the forecasting performance, while in others scenarios, removing them is harmful to forecasting performance. Therefore, it is necessary to treat the frequencies differently according to specific scenarios. To achieve this, we first reformulate the time series forecasting problem as learning a transfer function of each frequency in the Fourier domain. Further, we design Frequency Dynamic Fusion (FreDF), which individually predicts each Fourier component, and dynamically fuses the output of different frequencies. Moreover, we provide a novel insight into the generalization ability of time series forecasting and propose the generalization bound of time series forecasting. Then we prove FreDF has a lower bound, indicating that FreDF has better generalization ability. Extensive experiments conducted on multiple benchmark datasets and ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of FreDF.

Self-Supervised Representation Learning with Meta Comprehensive Regularization

Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods harness the concept of semantic invariance by utilizing data augmentation strategies to produce similar representations for different deformations of the same input. Essentially, the model captures the shared information among multiple augmented views of samples, while disregarding the non-shared information that may be beneficial for downstream tasks. To address this issue, we introduce a module called CompMod with Meta Comprehensive Regularization (MCR), embedded into existing self-supervised frameworks, to make the learned representations more comprehensive. Specifically, we update our proposed model through a bi-level optimization mechanism, enabling it to capture comprehensive features. Additionally, guided by the constrained extraction of features using maximum entropy coding, the self-supervised learning model learns more comprehensive features on top of learning consistent features. In addition, we provide theoretical support for our proposed method from information theory and causal counterfactual perspective. Experimental results show that our method achieves significant improvement in classification, object detection and instance segmentation tasks on multiple benchmark datasets.