An Advanced Ensemble Deep Learning Framework for Stock Price Prediction Using VAE, Transformer, and LSTM Model

This research proposes a cutting-edge ensemble deep learning framework for stock price prediction by combining three advanced neural network architectures: The particular areas of interest for the research include but are not limited to: Variational Autoencoder (VAE), Transformer, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. The presented framework is aimed to substantially utilize the advantages of each model which would allow for achieving the identification of both linear and non-linear relations in stock price movements. To improve the accuracy of its predictions it uses rich set of technical indicators and it scales its predictors based on the current market situation. By trying out the framework on several stock data sets, and benchmarking the results against single models and conventional forecasting, the ensemble method exhibits consistently high accuracy and reliability. The VAE is able to learn linear representation on high-dimensional data while the Transformer outstandingly perform in recognizing long-term patterns on the stock price data. LSTM, based on its characteristics of being a model that can deal with sequences, brings additional improvements to the given framework, especially regarding temporal dynamics and fluctuations. Combined, these components provide exceptional directional performance and a very small disparity in the predicted results. The present solution has given a probable concept that can handle the inherent problem of stock price prediction with high reliability and scalability. Compared to the performance of individual proposals based on the neural network, as well as classical methods, the proposed ensemble framework demonstrates the advantages of combining different architectures. It has a very important application in algorithmic trading, risk analysis, and control and decision-making for finance professions and scholars.

Active Geospatial Search for Efficient Tenant Eviction Outreach

Tenant evictions threaten housing stability and are a major concern for many cities. An open question concerns whether data-driven methods enhance outreach programs that target at-risk tenants to mitigate their risk of eviction. We propose a novel active geospatial search (AGS) modeling framework for this problem. AGS integrates property-level information in a search policy that identifies a sequence of rental units to canvas to both determine their eviction risk and provide support if needed. We propose a hierarchical reinforcement learning approach to learn a search policy for AGS that scales to large urban areas containing thousands of parcels, balancing exploration and exploitation and accounting for travel costs and a budget constraint. Crucially, the search policy adapts online to newly discovered information about evictions. Evaluation using eviction data for a large urban area demonstrates that the proposed framework and algorithmic approach are considerably more effective at sequentially identifying eviction cases than baseline methods.

GOMAA-Geo: GOal Modality Agnostic Active Geo-localization

We consider the task of active geo-localization (AGL) in which an agent uses a sequence of visual cues observed during aerial navigation to find a target specified through multiple possible modalities. This could emulate a UAV involved in a search-and-rescue operation navigating through an area, observing a stream of aerial images as it goes. The AGL task is associated with two important challenges. Firstly, an agent must deal with a goal specification in one of multiple modalities (e.g., through a natural language description) while the search cues are provided in other modalities (aerial imagery). The second challenge is limited localization time (e.g., limited battery life, urgency) so that the goal must be localized as efficiently as possible, i.e. the agent must effectively leverage its sequentially observed aerial views when searching for the goal. To address these challenges, we propose GOMAA-Geo - a goal modality agnostic active geo-localization agent - for zero-shot generalization between different goal modalities. Our approach combines cross-modality contrastive learning to align representations across modalities with supervised foundation model pretraining and reinforcement learning to obtain highly effective navigation and localization policies. Through extensive evaluations, we show that GOMAA-Geo outperforms alternative learnable approaches and that it generalizes across datasets - e.g., to disaster-hit areas without seeing a single disaster scenario during training - and goal modalities - e.g., to ground-level imagery or textual descriptions, despite only being trained with goals specified as aerial views. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/mvrl/GOMAA-Geo/tree/main.

Amortized nonmyopic active search via deep imitation learning

Active search formalizes a specialized active learning setting where the goal is to collect members of a rare, valuable class. The state-of-the-art algorithm approximates the optimal Bayesian policy in a budget-aware manner, and has been shown to achieve impressive empirical performance in previous work. However, even this approximate policy has a superlinear computational complexity with respect to the size of the search problem, rendering its application impractical in large spaces or in real-time systems where decisions must be made quickly. We study the amortization of this policy by training a neural network to learn to search. To circumvent the difficulty of learning from scratch, we appeal to imitation learning techniques to mimic the behavior of the expert, expensive-to-compute policy. Our policy network, trained on synthetic data, learns a beneficial search strategy that yields nonmyopic decisions carefully balancing exploration and exploitation. Extensive experiments demonstrate our policy achieves competitive performance at real-world tasks that closely approximates the expert's at a fraction of the cost, while outperforming cheaper baselines.

Attacks on Node Attributes in Graph Neural Networks

Graphs are commonly used to model complex networks prevalent in modern social media and literacy applications. Our research investigates the vulnerability of these graphs through the application of feature based adversarial attacks, focusing on both decision-time attacks and poisoning attacks. In contrast to state-of-the-art models like Net Attack and Meta Attack, which target node attributes and graph structure, our study specifically targets node attributes. For our analysis, we utilized the text dataset Hellaswag and graph datasets Cora and CiteSeer, providing a diverse basis for evaluation. Our findings indicate that decision-time attacks using Projected Gradient Descent (PGD) are more potent compared to poisoning attacks that employ Mean Node Embeddings and Graph Contrastive Learning strategies. This provides insights for graph data security, pinpointing where graph-based models are most vulnerable and thereby informing the development of stronger defense mechanisms against such attacks.

A Partially Supervised Reinforcement Learning Framework for Visual Active Search

Visual active search (VAS) has been proposed as a modeling framework in which visual cues are used to guide exploration, with the goal of identifying regions of interest in a large geospatial area. Its potential applications include identifying hot spots of rare wildlife poaching activity, search-and-rescue scenarios, identifying illegal trafficking of weapons, drugs, or people, and many others. State of the art approaches to VAS include applications of deep reinforcement learning (DRL), which yield end-to-end search policies, and traditional active search, which combines predictions with custom algorithmic approaches. While the DRL framework has been shown to greatly outperform traditional active search in such domains, its end-to-end nature does not make full use of supervised information attained either during training, or during actual search, a significant limitation if search tasks differ significantly from those in the training distribution. We propose an approach that combines the strength of both DRL and conventional active search by decomposing the search policy into a prediction module, which produces a geospatial distribution of regions of interest based on task embedding and search history, and a search module, which takes the predictions and search history as input and outputs the search distribution. We develop a novel meta-learning approach for jointly learning the resulting combined policy that can make effective use of supervised information obtained both at training and decision time. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed representation and meta-learning frameworks significantly outperform state of the art in visual active search on several problem domains.

A Visual Active Search Framework for Geospatial Exploration

Many problems can be viewed as forms of geospatial search aided by aerial imagery, with examples ranging from detecting poaching activity to human trafficking. We model this class of problems in a visual active search (VAS) framework, which takes as input an image of a broad area, and aims to identify as many examples of a target object as possible. It does this through a limited sequence of queries, each of which verifies whether an example is present in a given region. We propose a reinforcement learning approach for VAS that leverages a collection of fully annotated search tasks as training data to learn a search policy, and combines features of the input image with a natural representation of active search state. Additionally, we propose domain adaptation techniques to improve the policy at decision time when training data is not fully reflective of the test-time distribution of VAS tasks. Through extensive experiments on several satellite imagery datasets, we show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms several strong baselines. Code and data will be made public.

Reward Delay Attacks on Deep Reinforcement Learning

Most reinforcement learning algorithms implicitly assume strong synchrony. We present novel attacks targeting Q-learning that exploit a vulnerability entailed by this assumption by delaying the reward signal for a limited time period. We consider two types of attack goals: targeted attacks, which aim to cause a target policy to be learned, and untargeted attacks, which simply aim to induce a policy with a low reward. We evaluate the efficacy of the proposed attacks through a series of experiments. Our first observation is that reward-delay attacks are extremely effective when the goal is simply to minimize reward. Indeed, we find that even naive baseline reward-delay attacks are also highly successful in minimizing the reward. Targeted attacks, on the other hand, are more challenging, although we nevertheless demonstrate that the proposed approaches remain highly effective at achieving the attacker's targets. In addition, we introduce a second threat model that captures a minimal mitigation that ensures that rewards cannot be used out of sequence. We find that this mitigation remains insufficient to ensure robustness to attacks that delay, but preserve the order, of rewards.

How Powerful are K-hop Message Passing Graph Neural Networks

The most popular design paradigm for Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) is 1-hop message passing -- aggregating features from 1-hop neighbors repeatedly. However, the expressive power of 1-hop message passing is bounded by the Weisfeiler-Lehman (1-WL) test. Recently, researchers extended 1-hop message passing to K-hop message passing by aggregating information from K-hop neighbors of nodes simultaneously. However, there is no work on analyzing the expressive power of K-hop message passing. In this work, we theoretically characterize the expressive power of K-hop message passing. Specifically, we first formally differentiate two kinds of kernels of K-hop message passing which are often misused in previous works. We then characterize the expressive power of K-hop message passing by showing that it is more powerful than 1-hop message passing. Despite the higher expressive power, we show that K-hop message passing still cannot distinguish some simple regular graphs. To further enhance its expressive power, we introduce a KP-GNN framework, which improves K-hop message passing by leveraging the peripheral subgraph information in each hop. We prove that KP-GNN can distinguish almost all regular graphs including some distance regular graphs which could not be distinguished by previous distance encoding methods. Experimental results verify the expressive power and effectiveness of KP-GNN. KP-GNN achieves competitive results across all benchmark datasets.

Get Fooled for the Right Reason: Improving Adversarial Robustness through a Teacher-guided Curriculum Learning Approach

Current SOTA adversarially robust models are mostly based on adversarial training (AT) and differ only by some regularizers either at inner maximization or outer minimization steps. Being repetitive in nature during the inner maximization step, they take a huge time to train. We propose a non-iterative method that enforces the following ideas during training. Attribution maps are more aligned to the actual object in the image for adversarially robust models compared to naturally trained models. Also, the allowed set of pixels to perturb an image (that changes model decision) should be restricted to the object pixels only, which reduces the attack strength by limiting the attack space. Our method achieves significant performance gains with a little extra effort (10-20%) over existing AT models and outperforms all other methods in terms of adversarial as well as natural accuracy. We have performed extensive experimentation with CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and TinyImageNet datasets and reported results against many popular strong adversarial attacks to prove the effectiveness of our method.