Financial Risk Assessment via Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding

Online inclusive financial services encounter significant financial risks due to their expansive user base and low default costs. By real-world practice, we reveal that utilizing longer-term user payment behaviors can enhance models' ability to forecast financial risks. However, learning long behavior sequences is non-trivial for deep sequential models. Additionally, the diverse fields of payment behaviors carry rich information, requiring thorough exploitation. These factors collectively complicate the task of long-term user behavior modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding method, referred to as LBSF. In LBSF, payment behavior sequences are folded based on merchants, using the merchant field as an intrinsic grouping criterion, which enables informative parallelism without reliance on external knowledge. Meanwhile, we maximize the utility of payment details through a multi-field behavior encoding mechanism. Subsequently, behavior aggregation at the merchant level followed by relational learning across merchants facilitates comprehensive user financial representation. We evaluate LBSF on the financial risk assessment task using a large-scale real-world dataset. The results demonstrate that folding long behavior sequences based on internal behavioral cues effectively models long-term patterns and changes, thereby generating more accurate user financial profiles for practical applications.

On the expressiveness and spectral bias of KANs

Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) \cite{liu2024kan} were very recently proposed as a potential alternative to the prevalent architectural backbone of many deep learning models, the multi-layer perceptron (MLP). KANs have seen success in various tasks of AI for science, with their empirical efficiency and accuracy demostrated in function regression, PDE solving, and many more scientific problems. In this article, we revisit the comparison of KANs and MLPs, with emphasis on a theoretical perspective. On the one hand, we compare the representation and approximation capabilities of KANs and MLPs. We establish that MLPs can be represented using KANs of a comparable size. This shows that the approximation and representation capabilities of KANs are at least as good as MLPs. Conversely, we show that KANs can be represented using MLPs, but that in this representation the number of parameters increases by a factor of the KAN grid size. This suggests that KANs with a large grid size may be more efficient than MLPs at approximating certain functions. On the other hand, from the perspective of learning and optimization, we study the spectral bias of KANs compared with MLPs. We demonstrate that KANs are less biased toward low frequencies than MLPs. We highlight that the multi-level learning feature specific to KANs, i.e. grid extension of splines, improves the learning process for high-frequency components. Detailed comparisons with different choices of depth, width, and grid sizes of KANs are made, shedding some light on how to choose the hyperparameters in practice.

Epsilon: Exploring Comprehensive Visual-Semantic Projection for Multi-Label Zero-Shot Learning

This paper investigates a challenging problem of zero-shot learning in the multi-label scenario (MLZSL), wherein the model is trained to recognize multiple unseen classes within a sample (e.g., an image) based on seen classes and auxiliary knowledge, e.g., semantic information. Existing methods usually resort to analyzing the relationship of various seen classes residing in a sample from the dimension of spatial or semantic characteristics and transferring the learned model to unseen ones. However, they neglect the integrity of local and global features. Although the use of the attention structure will accurately locate local features, especially objects, it will significantly lose its integrity, and the relationship between classes will also be affected. Rough processing of global features will also directly affect comprehensiveness. This neglect will make the model lose its grasp of the main components of the image. Relying only on the local existence of seen classes during the inference stage introduces unavoidable bias. In this paper, we propose a novel and comprehensive visual-semantic framework for MLZSL, dubbed Epsilon, to fully make use of such properties and enable a more accurate and robust visual-semantic projection. In terms of spatial information, we achieve effective refinement by group aggregating image features into several semantic prompts. It can aggregate semantic information rather than class information, preserving the correlation between semantics. In terms of global semantics, we use global forward propagation to collect as much information as possible to ensure that semantics are not omitted. Experiments on large-scale MLZSL benchmark datasets NUS-Wide and Open-Images-v4 demonstrate that the proposed Epsilon outperforms other state-of-the-art methods with large margins.

How Diffusion Models Learn to Factorize and Compose

Diffusion models are capable of generating photo-realistic images that combine elements which likely do not appear together in the training set, demonstrating the ability to compositionally generalize. Nonetheless, the precise mechanism of compositionality and how it is acquired through training remains elusive. Inspired by cognitive neuroscientific approaches, we consider a highly reduced setting to examine whether and when diffusion models learn semantically meaningful and factorized representations of composable features. We performed extensive controlled experiments on conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) trained to generate various forms of 2D Gaussian data. We found that the models learn factorized but not fully continuous manifold representations for encoding continuous features of variation underlying the data. With such representations, models demonstrate superior feature compositionality but limited ability to interpolate over unseen values of a given feature. Our experimental results further demonstrate that diffusion models can attain compositionality with few compositional examples, suggesting a more efficient way to train DDPMs. Finally, we connect manifold formation in diffusion models to percolation theory in physics, offering insight into the sudden onset of factorized representation learning. Our thorough toy experiments thus contribute a deeper understanding of how diffusion models capture compositional structure in data.

KAN 2.0: Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks Meet Science

A major challenge of AI + Science lies in their inherent incompatibility: today's AI is primarily based on connectionism, while science depends on symbolism. To bridge the two worlds, we propose a framework to seamlessly synergize Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) and science. The framework highlights KANs' usage for three aspects of scientific discovery: identifying relevant features, revealing modular structures, and discovering symbolic formulas. The synergy is bidirectional: science to KAN (incorporating scientific knowledge into KANs), and KAN to science (extracting scientific insights from KANs). We highlight major new functionalities in the pykan package: (1) MultKAN: KANs with multiplication nodes. (2) kanpiler: a KAN compiler that compiles symbolic formulas into KANs. (3) tree converter: convert KANs (or any neural networks) to tree graphs. Based on these tools, we demonstrate KANs' capability to discover various types of physical laws, including conserved quantities, Lagrangians, symmetries, and constitutive laws.

Survival of the Fittest Representation: A Case Study with Modular Addition

When a neural network can learn multiple distinct algorithms to solve a task, how does it "choose" between them during training? To approach this question, we take inspiration from ecology: when multiple species coexist, they eventually reach an equilibrium where some survive while others die out. Analogously, we suggest that a neural network at initialization contains many solutions (representations and algorithms), which compete with each other under pressure from resource constraints, with the "fittest" ultimately prevailing. To investigate this Survival of the Fittest hypothesis, we conduct a case study on neural networks performing modular addition, and find that these networks' multiple circular representations at different Fourier frequencies undergo such competitive dynamics, with only a few circles surviving at the end. We find that the frequencies with high initial signals and gradients, the "fittest," are more likely to survive. By increasing the embedding dimension, we also observe more surviving frequencies. Inspired by the Lotka-Volterra equations describing the dynamics between species, we find that the dynamics of the circles can be nicely characterized by a set of linear differential equations. Our results with modular addition show that it is possible to decompose complicated representations into simpler components, along with their basic interactions, to offer insight on the training dynamics of representations.

Exploring Nutritional Impact on Alzheimer's Mortality: An Explainable AI Approach

This article uses machine learning (ML) and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to investigate the relationship between nutritional status and mortality rates associated with Alzheimers disease (AD). The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) database is employed for analysis. The random forest model is selected as the base model for XAI analysis, and the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method is used to assess feature importance. The results highlight significant nutritional factors such as serum vitamin B12 and glycated hemoglobin. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of random forests in predicting AD mortality compared to other diseases. This research provides insights into the impact of nutrition on AD and contributes to a deeper understanding of disease progression.

How Do Transformers "Do" Physics? Investigating the Simple Harmonic Oscillator

How do transformers model physics? Do transformers model systems with interpretable analytical solutions, or do they create "alien physics" that are difficult for humans to decipher? We take a step in demystifying this larger puzzle by investigating the simple harmonic oscillator (SHO), $\ddot{x}+2\gamma \dot{x}+\omega_0^2x=0$, one of the most fundamental systems in physics. Our goal is to identify the methods transformers use to model the SHO, and to do so we hypothesize and evaluate possible methods by analyzing the encoding of these methods' intermediates. We develop four criteria for the use of a method within the simple testbed of linear regression, where our method is $y = wx$ and our intermediate is $w$: (1) Can the intermediate be predicted from hidden states? (2) Is the intermediate's encoding quality correlated with model performance? (3) Can the majority of variance in hidden states be explained by the intermediate? (4) Can we intervene on hidden states to produce predictable outcomes? Armed with these two correlational (1,2), weak causal (3) and strong causal (4) criteria, we determine that transformers use known numerical methods to model trajectories of the simple harmonic oscillator, specifically the matrix exponential method. Our analysis framework can conveniently extend to high-dimensional linear systems and nonlinear systems, which we hope will help reveal the "world model" hidden in transformers.

OptPDE: Discovering Novel Integrable Systems via AI-Human Collaboration

Integrable partial differential equation (PDE) systems are of great interest in natural science, but are exceedingly rare and difficult to discover. To solve this, we introduce OptPDE, a first-of-its-kind machine learning approach that Optimizes PDEs' coefficients to maximize their number of conserved quantities, $n_{\rm CQ}$, and thus discover new integrable systems. We discover four families of integrable PDEs, one of which was previously known, and three of which have at least one conserved quantity but are new to the literature to the best of our knowledge. We investigate more deeply the properties of one of these novel PDE families, $u_t = (u_x+a^2u_{xxx})^3$. Our paper offers a promising schema of AI-human collaboration for integrable system discovery: machine learning generates interpretable hypotheses for possible integrable systems, which human scientists can verify and analyze, to truly close the discovery loop.

KAN: Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

Inspired by the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, we propose Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) as promising alternatives to Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs). While MLPs have fixed activation functions on nodes ("neurons"), KANs have learnable activation functions on edges ("weights"). KANs have no linear weights at all -- every weight parameter is replaced by a univariate function parametrized as a spline. We show that this seemingly simple change makes KANs outperform MLPs in terms of accuracy and interpretability. For accuracy, much smaller KANs can achieve comparable or better accuracy than much larger MLPs in data fitting and PDE solving. Theoretically and empirically, KANs possess faster neural scaling laws than MLPs. For interpretability, KANs can be intuitively visualized and can easily interact with human users. Through two examples in mathematics and physics, KANs are shown to be useful collaborators helping scientists (re)discover mathematical and physical laws. In summary, KANs are promising alternatives for MLPs, opening opportunities for further improving today's deep learning models which rely heavily on MLPs.