Probing LLM World Models: Enhancing Guesstimation with Wisdom of Crowds Decoding

Guesstimation, the task of making approximate quantity estimates, is a common real-world challenge. However, it has been largely overlooked in large language models (LLMs) and vision language models (VLMs) research. We introduce a novel guesstimation dataset, MARBLES. This dataset requires one to estimate how many items (e.g., marbles) can fit into containers (e.g., a one-cup measuring cup), both with and without accompanying images. Inspired by the social science concept of the ``Wisdom of Crowds'' (WOC) - taking the median from estimates from a crowd), which has proven effective in guesstimation, we propose ``WOC decoding'' strategy for LLM guesstimation. We show that LLMs/VLMs perform well on guesstimation, suggesting that they possess some level of a "world model" necessary for guesstimation. Moreover, similar to human performance, the WOC decoding method improves LLM/VLM guesstimation accuracy. Furthermore, the inclusion of images in the multimodal condition enhances model performance. These results highlight the value of WOC decoding strategy for LLMs/VLMs and position guesstimation as a probe for evaluating LLMs/VLMs' world model. As LLMs' world model is a fundamental prerequisite for many real-world tasks, e.g., human-AI teaming, our findings have broad implications for the AI community.

No Preference Left Behind: Group Distributional Preference Optimization

Preferences within a group of people are not uniform but follow a distribution. While existing alignment methods like Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) attempt to steer models to reflect human preferences, they struggle to capture the distributional pluralistic preferences within a group. These methods often skew toward dominant preferences, overlooking the diversity of opinions, especially when conflicting preferences arise. To address this issue, we propose Group Distribution Preference Optimization (GDPO), a novel framework that aligns language models with the distribution of preferences within a group by incorporating the concept of beliefs that shape individual preferences. GDPO calibrates a language model using statistical estimation of the group's belief distribution and aligns the model with belief-conditioned preferences, offering a more inclusive alignment framework than traditional methods. In experiments using both synthetic controllable opinion generation and real-world movie review datasets, we show that DPO fails to align with the targeted belief distributions, while GDPO consistently reduces this alignment gap during training. Moreover, our evaluation metrics demonstrate that GDPO outperforms existing approaches in aligning with group distributional preferences, marking a significant advance in pluralistic alignment.

Optimizing Social Media Annotation of HPV Vaccine Skepticism and Misinformation Using Large Language Models: An Experimental Evaluation of In-Context Learning and Fine-Tuning Stance Detection Across Multiple Models

This paper leverages large-language models (LLMs) to experimentally determine optimal strategies for scaling up social media content annotation for stance detection on HPV vaccine-related tweets. We examine both conventional fine-tuning and emergent in-context learning methods, systematically varying strategies of prompt engineering across widely used LLMs and their variants (e.g., GPT4, Mistral, and Llama3, etc.). Specifically, we varied prompt template design, shot sampling methods, and shot quantity to detect stance on HPV vaccination. Our findings reveal that 1) in general, in-context learning outperforms fine-tuning in stance detection for HPV vaccine social media content; 2) increasing shot quantity does not necessarily enhance performance across models; and 3) different LLMs and their variants present differing sensitivity to in-context learning conditions. We uncovered that the optimal in-context learning configuration for stance detection on HPV vaccine tweets involves six stratified shots paired with detailed contextual prompts. This study highlights the potential and provides an applicable approach for applying LLMs to research on social media stance and skepticism detection.

Beyond Demographics: Aligning Role-playing LLM-based Agents Using Human Belief Networks

Creating human-like large language model (LLM) agents is crucial for faithful social simulation. Having LLMs role-play based on demographic information sometimes improves human likeness but often does not. This study assessed whether LLM alignment with human behavior can be improved by integrating information from empirically-derived human belief networks. Using data from a human survey, we estimated a belief network encompassing 18 topics loading on two non-overlapping latent factors. We then seeded LLM-based agents with an opinion on one topic, and assessed the alignment of its expressed opinions on remaining test topics with corresponding human data. Role-playing based on demographic information alone did not align LLM and human opinions, but seeding the agent with a single belief greatly improved alignment for topics related in the belief network, and not for topics outside the network. These results suggest a novel path for human-LLM belief alignment in work seeking to simulate and understand patterns of belief distributions in society.

The Delusional Hedge Algorithm as a Model of Human Learning from Diverse Opinions

Whereas cognitive models of learning often assume direct experience with both the features of an event and with a true label or outcome, much of everyday learning arises from hearing the opinions of others, without direct access to either the experience or the ground truth outcome. We consider how people can learn which opinions to trust in such scenarios by extending the hedge algorithm: a classic solution for learning from diverse information sources. We first introduce a semi-supervised variant we call the delusional hedge capable of learning from both supervised and unsupervised experiences. In two experiments, we examine the alignment between human judgments and predictions from the standard hedge, the delusional hedge, and a heuristic baseline model. Results indicate that humans effectively incorporate both labeled and unlabeled information in a manner consistent with the delusional hedge algorithm -- suggesting that human learners not only gauge the accuracy of information sources but also their consistency with other reliable sources. The findings advance our understanding of human learning from diverse opinions, with implications for the development of algorithms that better capture how people learn to weigh conflicting information sources.

Simulating Opinion Dynamics with Networks of LLM-based Agents

Accurately simulating human opinion dynamics is crucial for understanding a variety of societal phenomena, including polarization and the spread of misinformation. However, the agent-based models (ABMs) commonly used for such simulations lack fidelity to human behavior. We propose a new approach to simulating opinion dynamics based on populations of Large Language Models (LLMs). Our findings reveal a strong inherent bias in LLM agents towards accurate information, leading to consensus in line with scientific reality. However, this bias limits the simulation of individuals with resistant views on issues like climate change. After inducing confirmation bias through prompt engineering, we observed opinion fragmentation in line with existing agent-based research. These insights highlight the promise and limitations of LLM agents in this domain and suggest a path forward: refining LLMs with real-world discourse to better simulate the evolution of human beliefs.

Evaluating LLM Agent Group Dynamics against Human Group Dynamics: A Case Study on Wisdom of Partisan Crowds

This study investigates the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) to simulate human group dynamics, particularly within politically charged contexts. We replicate the Wisdom of Partisan Crowds phenomenon using LLMs to role-play as Democrat and Republican personas, engaging in a structured interaction akin to human group study. Our approach evaluates how agents' responses evolve through social influence. Our key findings indicate that LLM agents role-playing detailed personas and without Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning closely align with human behaviors, while having CoT reasoning hurts the alignment. However, incorporating explicit biases into agent prompts does not necessarily enhance the wisdom of partisan crowds. Moreover, fine-tuning LLMs with human data shows promise in achieving human-like behavior but poses a risk of overfitting certain behaviors. These findings show the potential and limitations of using LLM agents in modeling human group phenomena.

Learning interactions to boost human creativity with bandits and GPT-4

This paper considers how interactions with AI algorithms can boost human creative thought. We employ a psychological task that demonstrates limits on human creativity, namely semantic feature generation: given a concept name, respondents must list as many of its features as possible. Human participants typically produce only a fraction of the features they know before getting "stuck." In experiments with humans and with a language AI (GPT-4) we contrast behavior in the standard task versus a variant in which participants can ask for algorithmically-generated hints. Algorithm choice is administered by a multi-armed bandit whose reward indicates whether the hint helped generating more features. Humans and the AI show similar benefits from hints, and remarkably, bandits learning from AI responses prefer the same prompting strategy as those learning from human behavior. The results suggest that strategies for boosting human creativity via computer interactions can be learned by bandits run on groups of simulated participants.

Evolving Domain Adaptation of Pretrained Language Models for Text Classification

Adapting pre-trained language models (PLMs) for time-series text classification amidst evolving domain shifts (EDS) is critical for maintaining accuracy in applications like stance detection. This study benchmarks the effectiveness of evolving domain adaptation (EDA) strategies, notably self-training, domain-adversarial training, and domain-adaptive pretraining, with a focus on an incremental self-training method. Our analysis across various datasets reveals that this incremental method excels at adapting PLMs to EDS, outperforming traditional domain adaptation techniques. These findings highlight the importance of continually updating PLMs to ensure their effectiveness in real-world applications, paving the way for future research into PLM robustness against the natural temporal evolution of language.

Decoding Affect in Dyadic Conversations: Leveraging Semantic Similarity through Sentence Embedding

Recent advancements in Natural Language Processing (NLP) have highlighted the potential of sentence embeddings in measuring semantic similarity. Yet, its application in analyzing real-world dyadic interactions and predicting the affect of conversational participants remains largely uncharted. To bridge this gap, the present study utilizes verbal conversations within 50 married couples talking about conflicts and pleasant activities. Transformer-based model all-MiniLM-L6-v2 was employed to obtain the embeddings of the utterances from each speaker. The overall similarity of the conversation was then quantified by the average cosine similarity between the embeddings of adjacent utterances. Results showed that semantic similarity had a positive association with wives' affect during conflict (but not pleasant) conversations. Moreover, this association was not observed with husbands' affect regardless of conversation types. Two validation checks further provided support for the validity of the similarity measure and showed that the observed patterns were not mere artifacts of data. The present study underscores the potency of sentence embeddings in understanding the association between interpersonal dynamics and individual affect, paving the way for innovative applications in affective and relationship sciences.