High-probability minimax lower bounds

The minimax risk is often considered as a gold standard against which we can compare specific statistical procedures. Nevertheless, as has been observed recently in robust and heavy-tailed estimation problems, the inherent reduction of the (random) loss to its expectation may entail a significant loss of information regarding its tail behaviour. In an attempt to avoid such a loss, we introduce the notion of a minimax quantile, and seek to articulate its dependence on the quantile level. To this end, we develop high-probability variants of the classical Le Cam and Fano methods, as well as a technique to convert local minimax risk lower bounds to lower bounds on minimax quantiles. To illustrate the power of our framework, we deploy our techniques on several examples, recovering recent results in robust mean estimation and stochastic convex optimisation, as well as obtaining several new results in covariance matrix estimation, sparse linear regression, nonparametric density estimation and isotonic regression. Our overall goal is to argue that minimax quantiles can provide a finer-grained understanding of the difficulty of statistical problems, and that, in wide generality, lower bounds on these quantities can be obtained via user-friendly tools.

Satisficing Exploration in Bandit Optimization

Motivated by the concept of satisficing in decision-making, we consider the problem of satisficing exploration in bandit optimization. In this setting, the learner aims at selecting satisficing arms (arms with mean reward exceeding a certain threshold value) as frequently as possible. The performance is measured by satisficing regret, which is the cumulative deficit of the chosen arm's mean reward compared to the threshold. We propose SELECT, a general algorithmic template for Satisficing Exploration via LowEr Confidence bound Testing, that attains constant satisficing regret for a wide variety of bandit optimization problems in the realizable case (i.e., a satisficing arm exists). Specifically, given a class of bandit optimization problems and a corresponding learning oracle with sub-linear (standard) regret upper bound, SELECT iteratively makes use of the oracle to identify a potential satisficing arm with low regret. Then, it collects data samples from this arm, and continuously compares the LCB of the identified arm's mean reward against the threshold value to determine if it is a satisficing arm. As a complement, SELECT also enjoys the same (standard) regret guarantee as the oracle in the non-realizable case. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to validate the performance of SELECT for several popular bandit optimization settings.

Integrating Stock Features and Global Information via Large Language Models for Enhanced Stock Return Prediction

The remarkable achievements and rapid advancements of Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT and GPT-4 have showcased their immense potential in quantitative investment. Traders can effectively leverage these LLMs to analyze financial news and predict stock returns accurately. However, integrating LLMs into existing quantitative models presents two primary challenges: the insufficient utilization of semantic information embedded within LLMs and the difficulties in aligning the latent information within LLMs with pre-existing quantitative stock features. We propose a novel framework consisting of two components to surmount these challenges. The first component, the Local-Global (LG) model, introduces three distinct strategies for modeling global information. These approaches are grounded respectively on stock features, the capabilities of LLMs, and a hybrid method combining the two paradigms. The second component, Self-Correlated Reinforcement Learning (SCRL), focuses on aligning the embeddings of financial news generated by LLMs with stock features within the same semantic space. By implementing our framework, we have demonstrated superior performance in Rank Information Coefficient and returns, particularly compared to models relying only on stock features in the China A-share market.

Corrective feedback, emphatic speech synthesis, visual-speech exaggeration, pronunciation learning

To provide more discriminative feedback for the second language (L2) learners to better identify their mispronunciation, we propose a method for exaggerated visual-speech feedback in computer-assisted pronunciation training (CAPT). The speech exaggeration is realized by an emphatic speech generation neural network based on Tacotron, while the visual exaggeration is accomplished by ADC Viseme Blending, namely increasing Amplitude of movement, extending the phone's Duration and enhancing the color Contrast. User studies show that exaggerated feedback outperforms non-exaggerated version on helping learners with pronunciation identification and pronunciation improvement.

Dialogue Design and Management for Multi-Session Casual Conversation with Older Adults

We address the problem of designing a conversational avatar capable of a sequence of casual conversations with older adults. Users at risk of loneliness, social anxiety or a sense of ennui may benefit from practicing such conversations in private, at their convenience. We describe an automatic spoken dialogue manager for LISSA, an on-screen virtual agent that can keep older users involved in conversations over several sessions, each lasting 10-20 minutes. The idea behind LISSA is to improve users' communication skills by providing feedback on their non-verbal behavior at certain points in the course of the conversations. In this paper, we analyze the dialogues collected from the first session between LISSA and each of 8 participants. We examine the quality of the conversations by comparing the transcripts with those collected in a WOZ setting. LISSA's contributions to the conversations were judged by research assistants who rated the extent to which the contributions were "natural", "on track", "encouraging", "understanding", "relevant", and "polite". The results show that the automatic dialogue manager was able to handle conversation with the users smoothly and naturally.