Ordinal Learning: Longitudinal Attention Alignment Model for Predicting Time to Future Breast Cancer Events from Mammograms

Precision breast cancer (BC) risk assessment is crucial for developing individualized screening and prevention. Despite the promising potential of recent mammogram (MG) based deep learning models in predicting BC risk, they mostly overlook the 'time-to-future-event' ordering among patients and exhibit limited explorations into how they track history changes in breast tissue, thereby limiting their clinical application. In this work, we propose a novel method, named OA-BreaCR, to precisely model the ordinal relationship of the time to and between BC events while incorporating longitudinal breast tissue changes in a more explainable manner. We validate our method on public EMBED and inhouse datasets, comparing with existing BC risk prediction and time prediction methods. Our ordinal learning method OA-BreaCR outperforms existing methods in both BC risk and time-to-future-event prediction tasks. Additionally, ordinal heatmap visualizations show the model's attention over time. Our findings underscore the importance of interpretable and precise risk assessment for enhancing BC screening and prevention efforts. The code will be accessible to the public.

Problems in AI, their roots in philosophy, and implications for science and society

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of today's most relevant emergent technologies. In view thereof, this paper proposes that more attention should be paid to the philosophical aspects of AI technology and its use. It is argued that this deficit is generally combined with philosophical misconceptions about the growth of knowledge. To identify these misconceptions, reference is made to the ideas of the philosopher of science Karl Popper and the physicist David Deutsch. The works of both thinkers aim against mistaken theories of knowledge, such as inductivism, empiricism, and instrumentalism. This paper shows that these theories bear similarities to how current AI technology operates. It also shows that these theories are very much alive in the (public) discourse on AI, often called Bayesianism. In line with Popper and Deutsch, it is proposed that all these theories are based on mistaken philosophies of knowledge. This includes an analysis of the implications of these mistaken philosophies for the use of AI in science and society, including some of the likely problem situations that will arise. This paper finally provides a realistic outlook on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and three propositions on A(G)I and philosophy (i.e., epistemology).

Nodule detection and generation on chest X-rays: NODE21 Challenge

Pulmonary nodules may be an early manifestation of lung cancer, the leading cause of cancer-related deaths among both men and women. Numerous studies have established that deep learning methods can yield high-performance levels in the detection of lung nodules in chest X-rays. However, the lack of gold-standard public datasets slows down the progression of the research and prevents benchmarking of methods for this task. To address this, we organized a public research challenge, NODE21, aimed at the detection and generation of lung nodules in chest X-rays. While the detection track assesses state-of-the-art nodule detection systems, the generation track determines the utility of nodule generation algorithms to augment training data and hence improve the performance of the detection systems. This paper summarizes the results of the NODE21 challenge and performs extensive additional experiments to examine the impact of the synthetically generated nodule training images on the detection algorithm performance.

Kandinsky Conformal Prediction: Efficient Calibration of Image Segmentation Algorithms

Image segmentation algorithms can be understood as a collection of pixel classifiers, for which the outcomes of nearby pixels are correlated. Classifier models can be calibrated using Inductive Conformal Prediction, but this requires holding back a sufficiently large calibration dataset for computing the distribution of non-conformity scores of the model's predictions. If one only requires only marginal calibration on the image level, this calibration set consists of all individual pixels in the images available for calibration. However, if the goal is to attain proper calibration for each individual pixel classifier, the calibration set consists of individual images. In a scenario where data are scarce (such as the medical domain), it may not always be possible to set aside sufficiently many images for this pixel-level calibration. The method we propose, dubbed ``Kandinsky calibration'', makes use of the spatial structure present in the distribution of natural images to simultaneously calibrate the classifiers of ``similar'' pixels. This can be seen as an intermediate approach between marginal (imagewise) and conditional (pixelwise) calibration, where non-conformity scores are aggregated over similar image regions, thereby making more efficient use of the images available for calibration. We run experiments on segmentation algorithms trained and calibrated on subsets of the public MS-COCO and Medical Decathlon datasets, demonstrating that Kandinsky calibration method can significantly improve the coverage. When compared to both pixelwise and imagewise calibration on little data, the Kandinsky method achieves much lower coverage errors, indicating the data efficiency of the Kandinsky calibration.

Constrained Empirical Risk Minimization: Theory and Practice

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are widely used for their ability to effectively approximate large classes of functions. This flexibility, however, makes the strict enforcement of constraints on DNNs an open problem. Here we present a framework that, under mild assumptions, allows the exact enforcement of constraints on parameterized sets of functions such as DNNs. Instead of imposing "soft'' constraints via additional terms in the loss, we restrict (a subset of) the DNN parameters to a submanifold on which the constraints are satisfied exactly throughout the entire training procedure. We focus on constraints that are outside the scope of equivariant networks used in Geometric Deep Learning. As a major example of the framework, we restrict filters of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to be wavelets, and apply these wavelet networks to the task of contour prediction in the medical domain.