Learning Pattern-Specific Experts for Time Series Forecasting Under Patch-level Distribution Shift

Time series forecasting, which aims to predict future values based on historical data, has garnered significant attention due to its broad range of applications. However, real-world time series often exhibit complex non-uniform distribution with varying patterns across segments, such as season, operating condition, or semantic meaning, making accurate forecasting challenging. Existing approaches, which typically train a single model to capture all these diverse patterns, often struggle with the pattern drifts between patches and may lead to poor generalization. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{TFPS}, a novel architecture that leverages pattern-specific experts for more accurate and adaptable time series forecasting. TFPS employs a dual-domain encoder to capture both time-domain and frequency-domain features, enabling a more comprehensive understanding of temporal dynamics. It then uses subspace clustering to dynamically identify distinct patterns across data patches. Finally, pattern-specific experts model these unique patterns, delivering tailored predictions for each patch. By explicitly learning and adapting to evolving patterns, TFPS achieves significantly improved forecasting accuracy. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TFPS outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly in long-term forecasting, through its dynamic and pattern-aware learning approach. The data and codes are available: \url{https://github.com/syrGitHub/TFPS}.

Evidentially Calibrated Source-Free Time-Series Domain Adaptation with Temporal Imputation

Source-free domain adaptation (SFDA) aims to adapt a model pre-trained on a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain without access to source data, preserving the source domain's privacy. While SFDA is prevalent in computer vision, it remains largely unexplored in time series analysis. Existing SFDA methods, designed for visual data, struggle to capture the inherent temporal dynamics of time series, hindering adaptation performance. This paper proposes MAsk And imPUte (MAPU), a novel and effective approach for time series SFDA. MAPU addresses the critical challenge of temporal consistency by introducing a novel temporal imputation task. This task involves randomly masking time series signals and leveraging a dedicated temporal imputer to recover the original signal within the learned embedding space, bypassing the complexities of noisy raw data. Notably, MAPU is the first method to explicitly address temporal consistency in the context of time series SFDA. Additionally, it offers seamless integration with existing SFDA methods, providing greater flexibility. We further introduce E-MAPU, which incorporates evidential uncertainty estimation to address the overconfidence issue inherent in softmax predictions. To achieve that, we leverage evidential deep learning to obtain a better-calibrated pre-trained model and adapt the target encoder to map out-of-support target samples to a new feature representation closer to the source domain's support. This fosters better alignment, ultimately enhancing adaptation performance. Extensive experiments on five real-world time series datasets demonstrate that both MAPU and E-MAPU achieve significant performance gains compared to existing methods. These results highlight the effectiveness of our proposed approaches for tackling various time series domain adaptation problems.

Hierarchical Classification Auxiliary Network for Time Series Forecasting

Deep learning has significantly advanced time series forecasting through its powerful capacity to capture sequence relationships. However, training these models with the Mean Square Error (MSE) loss often results in over-smooth predictions, making it challenging to handle the complexity and learn high-entropy features from time series data with high variability and unpredictability. In this work, we introduce a novel approach by tokenizing time series values to train forecasting models via cross-entropy loss, while considering the continuous nature of time series data. Specifically, we propose Hierarchical Classification Auxiliary Network, HCAN, a general model-agnostic component that can be integrated with any forecasting model. HCAN is based on a Hierarchy-Aware Attention module that integrates multi-granularity high-entropy features at different hierarchy levels. At each level, we assign a class label for timesteps to train an Uncertainty-Aware Classifier. This classifier mitigates the over-confidence in softmax loss via evidence theory. We also implement a Hierarchical Consistency Loss to maintain prediction consistency across hierarchy levels. Extensive experiments integrating HCAN with state-of-the-art forecasting models demonstrate substantial improvements over baselines on several real-world datasets. Code is available at:https://github.com/syrGitHub/HCAN.

TSLANet: Rethinking Transformers for Time Series Representation Learning

Time series data, characterized by its intrinsic long and short-range dependencies, poses a unique challenge across analytical applications. While Transformer-based models excel at capturing long-range dependencies, they face limitations in noise sensitivity, computational efficiency, and overfitting with smaller datasets. In response, we introduce a novel Time Series Lightweight Adaptive Network (TSLANet), as a universal convolutional model for diverse time series tasks. Specifically, we propose an Adaptive Spectral Block, harnessing Fourier analysis to enhance feature representation and to capture both long-term and short-term interactions while mitigating noise via adaptive thresholding. Additionally, we introduce an Interactive Convolution Block and leverage self-supervised learning to refine the capacity of TSLANet for decoding complex temporal patterns and improve its robustness on different datasets. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that TSLANet outperforms state-of-the-art models in various tasks spanning classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection, showcasing its resilience and adaptability across a spectrum of noise levels and data sizes. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/emadeldeen24/TSLANet}

Source-Free Domain Adaptation with Temporal Imputation for Time Series Data

Source-free domain adaptation (SFDA) aims to adapt a pretrained model from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain without access to the source domain data, preserving source domain privacy. Despite its prevalence in visual applications, SFDA is largely unexplored in time series applications. The existing SFDA methods that are mainly designed for visual applications may fail to handle the temporal dynamics in time series, leading to impaired adaptation performance. To address this challenge, this paper presents a simple yet effective approach for source-free domain adaptation on time series data, namely MAsk and imPUte (MAPU). First, to capture temporal information of the source domain, our method performs random masking on the time series signals while leveraging a novel temporal imputer to recover the original signal from a masked version in the embedding space. Second, in the adaptation step, the imputer network is leveraged to guide the target model to produce target features that are temporally consistent with the source features. To this end, our MAPU can explicitly account for temporal dependency during the adaptation while avoiding the imputation in the noisy input space. Our method is the first to handle temporal consistency in SFDA for time series data and can be seamlessly equipped with other existing SFDA methods. Extensive experiments conducted on three real-world time series datasets demonstrate that our MAPU achieves significant performance gain over existing methods. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/mohamedr002/MAPU_SFDA_TS}.

Label-efficient Time Series Representation Learning: A Review

The scarcity of labeled data is one of the main challenges of applying deep learning models on time series data in the real world. Therefore, several approaches, e.g., transfer learning, self-supervised learning, and semi-supervised learning, have been recently developed to promote the learning capability of deep learning models from the limited time series labels. In this survey, for the first time, we provide a novel taxonomy to categorize existing approaches that address the scarcity of labeled data problem in time series data based on their reliance on external data sources. Moreover, we present a review of the recent advances in each approach and conclude the limitations of the current works and provide future directions that could yield better progress in the field.

CoTMix: Contrastive Domain Adaptation for Time-Series via Temporal Mixup

Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA) has emerged as a powerful solution for the domain shift problem via transferring the knowledge from a labeled source domain to a shifted unlabeled target domain. Despite the prevalence of UDA for visual applications, it remains relatively less explored for time-series applications. In this work, we propose a novel lightweight contrastive domain adaptation framework called CoTMix for time-series data. Unlike existing approaches that either use statistical distances or adversarial techniques, we leverage contrastive learning solely to mitigate the distribution shift across the different domains. Specifically, we propose a novel temporal mixup strategy to generate two intermediate augmented views for the source and target domains. Subsequently, we leverage contrastive learning to maximize the similarity between each domain and its corresponding augmented view. The generated views consider the temporal dynamics of time-series data during the adaptation process while inheriting the semantics among the two domains. Hence, we gradually push both domains towards a common intermediate space, mitigating the distribution shift across them. Extensive experiments conducted on four real-world time-series datasets show that our approach can significantly outperform all state-of-the-art UDA methods. The implementation code of CoTMix is available at \href{https://github.com/emadeldeen24/CoTMix}{github.com/emadeldeen24/CoTMix}.

Self-supervised Learning for Label-Efficient Sleep Stage Classification: A Comprehensive Evaluation

The past few years have witnessed a remarkable advance in deep learning for EEG-based sleep stage classification (SSC). However, the success of these models is attributed to possessing a massive amount of labeled data for training, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios. In such scenarios, sleep labs can generate a massive amount of data, but labeling these data can be expensive and time-consuming. Recently, the self-supervised learning (SSL) paradigm has shined as one of the most successful techniques to overcome the scarcity of labeled data. In this paper, we evaluate the efficacy of SSL to boost the performance of existing SSC models in the few-labels regime. We conduct a thorough study on three SSC datasets, and we find that fine-tuning the pretrained SSC models with only 5% of labeled data can achieve competitive performance to the supervised training with full labels. Moreover, self-supervised pretraining helps SSC models to be more robust to data imbalance and domain shift problems. The code is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/emadeldeen24/eval_ssl_ssc}.

Self-supervised Contrastive Representation Learning for Semi-supervised Time-Series Classification

Learning time-series representations when only unlabeled data or few labeled samples are available can be a challenging task. Recently, contrastive self-supervised learning has shown great improvement in extracting useful representations from unlabeled data via contrasting different augmented views of data. In this work, we propose a novel Time-Series representation learning framework via Temporal and Contextual Contrasting (TS-TCC) that learns representations from unlabeled data with contrastive learning. Specifically, we propose time-series specific weak and strong augmentations and use their views to learn robust temporal relations in the proposed temporal contrasting module, besides learning discriminative representations by our proposed contextual contrasting module. Additionally, we conduct a systematic study of time-series data augmentation selection, which is a key part of contrastive learning. We also extend TS-TCC to the semi-supervised learning settings and propose a Class-Aware TS-TCC (CA-TCC) that benefits from the available few labeled data to further improve representations learned by TS-TCC. Specifically, we leverage robust pseudo labels produced by TS-TCC to realize class-aware contrastive loss. Extensive experiments show that the linear evaluation of the features learned by our proposed framework performs comparably with the fully supervised training. Additionally, our framework shows high efficiency in few labeled data and transfer learning scenarios. The code is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/emadeldeen24/TS-TCC}.

ADATIME: A Benchmarking Suite for Domain Adaptation on Time Series Data

Unsupervised domain adaptation methods aim to generalize well on unlabeled test data that may have a different (shifted) distribution from the training data. Such methods are typically developed on image data, and their application to time series data is less explored. Existing works on time series domain adaptation suffer from inconsistencies in evaluation schemes, datasets, and backbone neural network architectures. Moreover, labeled target data are usually employed for model selection, which violates the fundamental assumption of unsupervised domain adaptation. To address these issues, we develop a benchmarking evaluation suite (ADATIME) to systematically and fairly evaluate different domain adaptation methods on time series data. Specifically, we standardize the backbone neural network architectures and benchmarking datasets, while also exploring more realistic model selection approaches that can work with no labeled data or just few labeled samples. Our evaluation includes adapting state-of-the-art visual domain adaptation methods to time series data in addition to the recent methods specifically developed for time series data. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate 10 state-of-the-art methods on four representative datasets spanning 20 cross-domain scenarios. Our results suggest that with careful selection of hyper-parameters, visual domain adaptation methods are competitive with methods proposed for time series domain adaptation. In addition, we find that hyper-parameters could be selected based on realistic model selection approaches. Our work unveils practical insights for applying domain adaptation methods on time series data and builds a solid foundation for future works in the field. The code is available at \href{https://github.com/emadeldeen24/AdaTime}{github.com/emadeldeen24/AdaTime}.