Correcting heterogeneous diagnostic bias when developing clinical prediction models using causal hidden Markov models

In routine care, individuals identified a priori as high-risk are usually tested for conditions more frequently. Protected attributes, such as sex or ethnicity may also determine testing frequency. Such heterogeneous detection rates across a population induce label error. This causes systematic model error for specific groups and biases performance metrics during validation. This paper proposes a method to correct for such bias in prediction models due to differential diagnostic delay. We use a causal inference framework to define our target estimand: an individual's diagnosis probability in a counterfactual scenario where their diagnosis rate matches that of a reference group. We model the longitudinal process as a hidden Markov model, in which confirmatory test results are emissions from a latent progressive disease stage. We validate our approach in simulated data and apply it to a case study of chronic kidney disease prediction using electronic health records. In simulations, our method reduces prediction bias and improves calibration-in-the-large, correcting the Observed:Expected ratio in the underdiagnosed group from 1.34 (standard deviation: 0.09) in a model developed without any correction for underdiagnosis bias to 1.02 (0.09). Violations of assumptions in the simulation affected the estimation of model parameters, but the proposed approach nonetheless remained better calibrated than the standard model. In the clinical case study, we identify diabetes as the main driver of observability, with an odds ratio of 10.36 (95% confidence interval, 9.80 - 11.02) in 6-month urine albumin-creatinine ratio testing rate. Using our approach to predict the counterfactual diagnostic rate in patients without diabetes, we improved the Observed:Expected ratio of a developed clinical prediction model from 1.55 (1.51 - 1.59) to 1.01 (0.98 - 1.04).

Event-Based Early Warning of Vineyard Disease Risk from Environmental Time Series

Accurate early warning of vineyard disease risk from environmental observations is essential for timely intervention and more sustainable crop protection. However, many existing studies formulate disease prediction as daily presence classification, which can favor persistence-driven predictions and provide only limited support for actionable short-horizon warning. In this paper, we present an event-based approach for early warning of vineyard disease risk from environmental time series and evaluate it through a vineyard case study. Rather than predicting daily disease status, the task is reformulated to predict transitions into annotated disease-risk periods within a future window of 3-7 days. To reduce fragmentation caused by short interruptions in the binary labels, new events are defined only after a minimum disease-free gap. This formulation encourages models to capture environmental precursors associated with upcoming risk periods instead of merely reproducing temporal persistence. Using multi-year agro-meteorological data, we construct input representations that capture humidity dynamics, rainfall accumulation, temperature variability, and seasonal structure through cyclic temporal encoding. We evaluate representative methods from classical machine learning and deep learning, including XGBoost, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs), using both standard classification metrics and an event-oriented early warning protocol. The results show that the event-based formulation supports practical short-horizon warning, while the compared models exhibit distinct trade-offs between event recall, lead time, and false-alert behavior. Overall, the study underscores the importance of problem formulation in environmental time-series learning and demonstrates the value of event-based prediction for vineyard disease warning systems.

Eliciting associations between clinical variables from LLMs via comparison questions across populations

The training data of large language models (LLMs) comprises a wide range of biomedical literature, reflecting data from many different patient populations. We investigate how it might be possible to recover information on correlation and causal links between patient characteristics, as a key building block for medical decision making. To avoid the pitfalls of direct elicitation, we propose an approach based on structured comparison questions, specifically patient comparison triplet questions. This is combined with a statistical model for the LLM representation that provides estimates of correlations without access to activations or model internals. Intuitively, we consider how similarity decisions of LLMs based on a first variable are affected by providing information on a second variable for one of the patients being assessed. We then induce prompt-level environment shifts to obtain correlation estimates for different subpopulations, which enables an invariant causal prediction (ICP) approach to obtain conservative candidate parent links. We demonstrate the method in two clinical domains, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and multiple sclerosis (MS). Across prompted environments, the elicited correlations are smooth, stable, and clinically interpretable, yet vary in a statistically significant way that supports downstream invariance testing, such that ICP provides a small set of candidate invariant parent links. These results show that indirect elicitation via triplet comparisons can recover meaningful association structure from LLMs and offer a cautious route from implicit correlations to causal statements that are congruent with LLM answering patterns.

Foundation Models to Unlock Real-World Evidence from Nationwide Medical Claims

Evidence derived from large-scale real-world data (RWD) is increasingly informing regulatory evaluation and healthcare decision-making. Administrative claims provide population-scale, longitudinal records of healthcare utilization, expenditure, and detailed coding of diagnoses, procedures, and medications, yet their potential as a substrate for healthcare foundation models remains largely unexplored. Here we present ReClaim, a generative transformer trained from scratch on 43.8 billion medical events from more than 200 million enrollees in the MarketScan claims data spanning 2008-2022. ReClaim models longitudinal trajectories across diagnoses, procedures, medications, and expenditure, and was scaled to 140 million, 700 million, and 1.7 billion parameters. Across over 1,000 disease-onset prediction tasks, ReClaim achieved a mean AUC of 75.6%, substantially outperforming disease-specific LightGBM (66.3%) and the transformer-based Delphi model (69.4%), with the largest gains for rare diseases. These advantages held across retrospective and prospective evaluations and in external validation on two independent datasets. Performance improved monotonically with scale, and post-training added 13.8 percentage points over pre-training alone. Beyond disease prediction, ReClaim captured financial outcomes and improved real-world evidence (RWE) analyses: for healthcare expenditure forecasting it increased explained variance from 0.28 to 0.37 relative to LightGBM, and in a target trial emulation it reduced systematic bias by 72% on average relative to Delphi. Together, these results establish administrative claims as a scalable substrate for healthcare foundation models and show that learned representations generalize across time periods and data sources, supporting disease surveillance, expenditure forecasting, and RWE generation.

Pretraining on Sleep Data Improves non-Sleep Biosignal Tasks

Sleep foundation models have recently demonstrated strong performance on in-domain polysomnography tasks, including sleep staging, apnea detection, and disease risk prediction. In this work, we investigate whether sleep biosignals can serve as an effective pretraining distribution for learning representations that transfer beyond sleep to adjacent domains. Following sleep foundation models, we perform sleep-only multimodal contrastive pretraining (with a leave-one-out objective) and evaluate transfer to non-sleep EEG and ECG, two well-benchmarked biosignal modalities with heterogeneous datasets and clinically meaningful downstream tasks. Across eight downstream tasks spanning multiple EEG and ECG datasets, sleep pretraining consistently improves performance relative to training from scratch. Moreover, on several tasks, we achieve performance competitive with or surpassing prior specialized state-of-the-art and foundation models.

Geometry-Aware State Space Model: A New Paradigm for Whole-Slide Image Representation

Accurate analysis of histopathological images is critical for disease diagnosis and treatment planning. Whole-slide images (WSIs), which digitize tissue specimens at gigapixel resolution, are fundamental to this process but require aggregating thousands of patches for slide-level predictions. Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) tackles this challenge with a two-stage paradigm, decoupling tile-level embedding and slide-level prediction. However, most existing methods implicitly embed patch representations in homogeneous Euclidean spaces, overlooking the hierarchical organization and regional heterogeneity of pathological tissues. This limits current models' ability to capture global tissue architecture and fine-grained cellular morphology. To address this limitation, we introduce a hybrid hyperbolic-Euclidean representation that embeds WSI features in dual geometric spaces, enabling complementary modeling of hierarchical tissue structures and local morphological details. Building on this formulation, we develop BatMIL, a WSI classification framework that leverages both geometric spaces. To model long-range dependencies among thousands of patches, we employ a structured state space sequence model (S4) backbone that encodes patch sequences with linear computational complexity. Furthermore, to account for regional heterogeneity, we introduce a chunk-level mixture-of-experts (MoE) module that groups patches into regions and dynamically routes them to specialized subnetworks, improving representational capacity while reducing redundant computation. Extensive experiments on seven WSI datasets spanning six cancer types demonstrate that BatMIL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art MIL approaches in slide-level classification tasks. These results indicate that geometry-aware representation learning offers a promising direction for next-generation computational pathology.

Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints

In many classification settings, the class of primary interest is underrepresented, leading to imbalanced data problems that arise in applications such as rare disease detection and fraud identification. In these contexts, identifying a potential positive instance typically triggers costly follow-up actions, such as medical imaging or detailed transaction inspection, which are subject to limited operational capacity. Motivated by this setting, we consider classification problems where data may arrive sequentially and decisions must be made under constraints on the number of instances that can be selected for further analysis. We propose a classification framework that explicitly controls the rate of positive predictions, enforcing a user-defined bound on the proportion of observations classified as belonging to the minority class while maximizing detection performance. The approach can be implemented using standard learning methods and naturally extends to online settings, where decisions are taken in real time. We show that incorporating capacity constraints leads to substantial improvements over classical approaches, including resampling techniques such as SMOTE, which do not directly control the selection rate.

GeoSAE: Geometric Prior-Guided Layer-Wise Sparse Autoencoder Annotation of Brain MRI Foundation Models

Brain MRI foundation models learn rich representations of anatomy, but interpreting what clinical information they encode remains an open problem. Standard sparse autoencoders (SAEs) suffer from severe feature collapse in deep transformer layers, and in Alzheimer's disease (AD) research, aging confounds nearly every clinical variable, making naive annotation unreliable. We propose GeoSAE, a geometry-guided SAE framework that uses the foundation model's learned manifold structure to prevent feature collapse and annotates each surviving feature via age-deconfounded partial correlations. Applied to ~14k T1-weighted MRI scans from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the Australian Imaging biomarkers and Lifestyle (AIBL) datasets, GeoSAE identifies a compact, fully interpretable feature set that predicts mild cognitive impairment (MCI)-to-AD conversion (AUC 0.746) using only 2% of the embedding dimensions, while comorbidity-annotated features achieve only chance-level performance. The identified features replicate across cohorts without retraining (r=0.97) and localize to neuroanatomically distinct regions consistent with Braak staging. This shows that geometry-guided SAEs can extract interpretable, biomarkers from frozen brain MRI foundation models.

GraphPL: Leveraging GNN for Efficient and Robust Modalities Imputation in Patchwork Learning

Current research on distributed multi-modal learning typically assumes that clients can access complete information across all modalities, which may not hold in practice. In this paper, we explore patchwork learning, in which the modalities available to different clients vary, and the objective is to impute the missing modalities for each client in an unsupervised manner. Existing methods are shown not to fully utilize the modality information as they tend to rely on only a subset of the observed modalities. To address this issue, we propose GraphPL, which combines graph neural networks with patchwork learning to flexibly integrate all observed modalities and remains robust with noisy inputs. Experimental results show that GraphPL achieves SOTA performance on benchmark datasets. Our results on real-world distributed electronic health record dataset show GraphPL learns strong downstream features and enables tasks like disease prediction via superior modality imputation.

Toward Multimodal Conversational AI for Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Despite strong performance of deep learning models in retinal disease detection, most systems produce static predictions without clinical reasoning or interactive explanation. Recent advances in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) integrate diagnostic predictions with clinically meaningful dialogue to support clinical decision-making and patient counseling. In this study, OcularChat, an MLLM, was fine-tuned from Qwen2.5-VL using simulated patient-physician dialogues to diagnose age-related macular degeneration (AMD) through visual question answering on color fundus photographs (CFPs). A total of 705,850 simulated dialogues paired with 46,167 CFPs were generated to train OcularChat to identify key AMD features and produce reasoned predictions. OcularChat demonstrated strong classification performance in AREDS, achieving accuracies of 0.954, 0.849, and 0.678 for the three diagnostic tasks: advanced AMD, pigmentary abnormalities, and drusen size, significantly outperforming existing MLLMs. On AREDS2, OcularChat remained the top-performing method on all tasks. Across three independent ophthalmologist graders, OcularChat achieved higher mean scores than a strong baseline model for advanced AMD (3.503 vs. 2.833), pigmentary abnormalities (3.272 vs. 2.828), drusen size (3.064 vs. 2.433), and overall impression (2.978 vs. 2.464) on a 5-point clinical grading rubric. Beyond strong objective performance in AMD severity classification, OcularChat demonstrated the ability to provide diagnostic reasoning, clinically relevant explanations, and interactive dialogue, with high performance in subjective ophthalmologist evaluation. These findings suggest that MLLMs may enable accurate, interpretable, and clinically useful image-based diagnosis and classification of AMD.