Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints

In many classification settings, the class of primary interest is underrepresented, leading to imbalanced data problems that arise in applications such as rare disease detection and fraud identification. In these contexts, identifying a potential positive instance typically triggers costly follow-up actions, such as medical imaging or detailed transaction inspection, which are subject to limited operational capacity. Motivated by this setting, we consider classification problems where data may arrive sequentially and decisions must be made under constraints on the number of instances that can be selected for further analysis. We propose a classification framework that explicitly controls the rate of positive predictions, enforcing a user-defined bound on the proportion of observations classified as belonging to the minority class while maximizing detection performance. The approach can be implemented using standard learning methods and naturally extends to online settings, where decisions are taken in real time. We show that incorporating capacity constraints leads to substantial improvements over classical approaches, including resampling techniques such as SMOTE, which do not directly control the selection rate.

GraphPL: Leveraging GNN for Efficient and Robust Modalities Imputation in Patchwork Learning

Current research on distributed multi-modal learning typically assumes that clients can access complete information across all modalities, which may not hold in practice. In this paper, we explore patchwork learning, in which the modalities available to different clients vary, and the objective is to impute the missing modalities for each client in an unsupervised manner. Existing methods are shown not to fully utilize the modality information as they tend to rely on only a subset of the observed modalities. To address this issue, we propose GraphPL, which combines graph neural networks with patchwork learning to flexibly integrate all observed modalities and remains robust with noisy inputs. Experimental results show that GraphPL achieves SOTA performance on benchmark datasets. Our results on real-world distributed electronic health record dataset show GraphPL learns strong downstream features and enables tasks like disease prediction via superior modality imputation.

Toward Multimodal Conversational AI for Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Despite strong performance of deep learning models in retinal disease detection, most systems produce static predictions without clinical reasoning or interactive explanation. Recent advances in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) integrate diagnostic predictions with clinically meaningful dialogue to support clinical decision-making and patient counseling. In this study, OcularChat, an MLLM, was fine-tuned from Qwen2.5-VL using simulated patient-physician dialogues to diagnose age-related macular degeneration (AMD) through visual question answering on color fundus photographs (CFPs). A total of 705,850 simulated dialogues paired with 46,167 CFPs were generated to train OcularChat to identify key AMD features and produce reasoned predictions. OcularChat demonstrated strong classification performance in AREDS, achieving accuracies of 0.954, 0.849, and 0.678 for the three diagnostic tasks: advanced AMD, pigmentary abnormalities, and drusen size, significantly outperforming existing MLLMs. On AREDS2, OcularChat remained the top-performing method on all tasks. Across three independent ophthalmologist graders, OcularChat achieved higher mean scores than a strong baseline model for advanced AMD (3.503 vs. 2.833), pigmentary abnormalities (3.272 vs. 2.828), drusen size (3.064 vs. 2.433), and overall impression (2.978 vs. 2.464) on a 5-point clinical grading rubric. Beyond strong objective performance in AMD severity classification, OcularChat demonstrated the ability to provide diagnostic reasoning, clinically relevant explanations, and interactive dialogue, with high performance in subjective ophthalmologist evaluation. These findings suggest that MLLMs may enable accurate, interpretable, and clinically useful image-based diagnosis and classification of AMD.

Dialysis Risk Prediction and Treatment Effect Estimation for AKI patients using Longitudinal Electronic Health Records

Progression to dialysis or end-stage renal disease is a rare but clinically important outcome. Clinicians need evidence on how medication exposures influence downstream risk. We constructed a fixed-window EHR cohort (90-day observation, 730-day prediction; N=81401; dialysis/ESRD prevalence: 1.1%) and modeled sequences of diagnoses, procedures, and medications with kidney laboratory trends (creatinine, BUN, eGFR). A transformer-based causal multi-head model was trained to estimate drug- and ingredient-level average treatment effects (ATEs) using counterfactual exposure removal and insertion under a full medication history setup. On test set, predictive performance reached an AUC of 0.694 and PR-AUC of 0.094. At the selected decision threshold (0.883), the model achieved an F1 score of 0.201 with a Brier score of 0.018. Post-hoc causal analyses of lab changes (eGFR, creatinine, BUN) using IPTW, AIPW, naive, and covariate-adjusted OLS methods assessed clinical directionality. Results showed partial protective-direction support for ACE/ARB exposures and worsening-direction signals for loop diuretics.

EXACT: an explainable anomaly-aware vision foundation model for analysis of 3D chest CT

Chest computed tomography (CT) is central to the detection and management of thoracic disease, yet the growing scale and complexity of volumetric imaging increasingly exceed what can be addressed by scan-level prediction alone. Clinically useful AI for CT must not only recognize disease across the whole volume, but also localize abnormalities and provide interpretable visual evidence. Existing vision-language foundation models typically compress scans and reports into global image-text representations, limiting their ability to preserve spatial evidence and support clinically meaningful interpretation. Here we developed EXACT, an explainable anomaly-aware foundation model for three-dimensional chest CT that learns spatially resolved representations from paired clinical scans and radiology reports. EXACT was pre-trained on 25,692 CT-reports pairs using anatomy-aware weak supervision, jointly learning organ segmentation and multi-instance anomaly localization without manual voxel-level annotations. The resulting organ-specific anomaly-aware maps assign each voxel a disease-specific anomaly score confined to its corresponding anatomy, jointly encoding lesion extent and organ-level context. In retrospective multinational and multi-center evaluations, EXACT showed broad and consistent improvements across clinically relevant CT tasks, spanning multi-disease diagnosis, zero-shot anomaly localization, downstream adaptation, and visually grounded report generation, outperforming existing three-dimensional medical foundation models. By transforming routine clinical CT scans and free-text reports into explainable voxel-level representations, EXACT establishes a scalable paradigm for trustworthy volumetric medical AI.

Dynamic Decision Learning: Test-Time Evolution for Abnormality Grounding in Rare Diseases

Clinical abnormality grounding for rare diseases is often hindered by data scarcity, making supervised fine-tuning impractical and single-pass inference highly unstable. We propose Dynamic Decision Learning (DDL), a framework that enables frozen large vision-language models (LVLMs) to refine their decisions across both language and visual spaces by optimizing instructions and consolidating predictions under visual perturbations. This process improves localization quality and produces a consensus-based reliability score that quantifies model confidence. Results on brain imaging benchmarks, including a rare-disease dataset with 281 pathology types across models ranging from 3B to 72B parameters, show that DDL improves mAP@75 by up to 105% on rare-disease cases and outperforms adaptation baselines and supervised fine-tuning. Furthermore, DDL demonstrates stronger calibration between reliability scores and localization accuracy under severe distribution shifts and increasing task difficulty. Code is available at: https://lijunrio.github.io/DDL/

CognitiveTwin: Robust Multi-Modal Digital Twins for Predicting Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease

Predicting individual cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease (AD) is difficult due to the heterogeneity of disease progression. Reliable clinical tools require not only high accuracy but also fairness across demographics and robustness to missing data. We present CognitiveTwin, a digital twin framework that predicts patient-specific cognitive trajectories. The model integrates multi-modal longitudinal data (cognitive scores, magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers, and genetics). We use a Transformer-based architecture to fuse these modalities and a Deep Markov Model to capture temporal dynamics. We trained and evaluated the framework using data from 1,666 patients in the TADPOLE (Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative) dataset. We assessed the model for prediction error, demographic fairness, and robustness to missing-not-at-random (MNAR) data patterns. ognitiveTwin provides accurate and personalized predictions of cognitive decline. Its demonstrated fairness across patient demographics and resilience to clinical dropout make it a reliable tool for clinical trial enrichment and personalized care planning.

Task-guided Spatiotemporal Network with Diffusion Augmentation for EEG-based Dementia Diagnosis and MMSE Prediction

Patients with dementia typically exhibit cognitive impairment, which is routinely assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Concurrently, their underlying neurophysiological abnormalities are reflected in Electroencephalography (EEG), providing a basis for joint modeling. However, traditional multi-task approaches suffer from feature entanglement, which leads to inter-task interference when handling heterogeneous objectives.To address this challenge, we propose a task-guided spatiotemporal network (TGSN) with diffusion augmentation for EEG-based dementia diagnosis and MMSE prediction. Specifically, TGSN integrates a multi-band feature fusion module to capture complementary spectral information from EEG. Meanwhile, a pre-trained data augmentation module utilizing a diffusion process is introduced toincrease sample diversity. To model the complex spatiotemporal patterns of EEG, we propose a gated spatiotemporal attention module that captures long-range spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. Moreover, we design a task-guided query module to achieve task-specific feature extraction, thereby mitigating task interference. The effectiveness of TGSN is evaluated on the XY02 dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed network outperforms several state-of-the-art methods, achieving classification accuracies of 97.78\% for Alzheimer's Disease (AD)/Frontotemporal Dementia (FTD) and 83.93\% for AD/FTD/Vascular Cognitive Impairment (VCI), which exceed the best baselines by 16.39\% and 8.28\%, respectively. In parallel, it reduces the RMSE for MMSE prediction to 1.93 and 2.38, achieving significant error reductions of 1.44 and 1.43 compared to the best baselines. Additionally, validation on the DS004504 dataset demonstrates strong cross-dataset generalization...

A Nationwide Japanese Medical Claims Foundation Model: Balancing Model Scaling and Task-Specific Computational Efficiency

Clinical risk prediction using longitudinal medical data supports individualized care. Self-supervised foundation models have emerged as a promising approach for leveraging large-scale unlabeled healthcare records. In natural language processing, scaling laws suggest that larger models achieve predictably lower pretraining losses, supporting the foundation model paradigm. However, for structured medical data, characterized by a limited vocabulary and sparse observations, whether increasing model size consistently improves downstream predictions is unclear, as most studies evaluate only a single model scale. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between model scale and downstream task performance for structured medical foundation models. Using a random sample (2.3 million patients, 32 hospitals) from a nationwide 519-hospital Japanese claims database, we pretrained encoder-only Transformers at five scales (2.2M-101M parameters) for disease incidence and medication prediction. Downstream performance saturated at task-dependent thresholds: disease prediction benefited from larger models (32M-101M), whereas medication prediction saturated at 11M, reducing pretraining time by 178 h. Across all tasks, the best-performing model consistently outperformed a Light Gradient Boosting Machine baseline in the area under the precision-recall curve. These findings indicate that, unlike the monotonically decreasing pretraining loss, the optimal model size varied depending on task characteristics. This task-dependent saturation provides practical guidance for balancing predictive performance and computational cost in structured medical foundation models.

Machine learning models for estimating counterfactuals in a single-arm inflammatory bowel disease study

Single-arm trials accelerate study timelines by reducing the number of patients that must be recruited for a concurrent control group. However, these designs require an alternative comparator to estimate treatment effects. One approach is to construct a virtual control arm using a machine learning (ML) model trained on external control data to predict the counterfactual outcomes of the treatment arm. Our aim in this study was to leverage virtual controls by developing and evaluating ML-based counterfactual outcome models trained on IFX-treated patients to predict 1-year steroid-free clinical remission (SFCR ) and a composite of C-reactive protein remission plus steroid-free clinical remission (CRP-SFCR) for ADA-treated pediatric Crohn's disease patients, and to compare the resulting IFX-versus-ADA treatment effect estimates with those obtained using propensity score matching to external controls. Five ML models were used to train counterfactual models on the observed IFX cohort data. The resulting models were used to predict the counterfactual outcomes for the ADA arm patients. LGBM yields the best OR closest to the propensity score matched reference, and all 95% CI results align with the conclusion from the reference study that no statistical difference in the primary and secondary outcomes has been observed between the patients treated with ADA or IFX. Our study supports virtual controls as a viable and effective substitute for expensive, lengthy or unethical patient recruitment in an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) trial. The developed gradient boosted prediction model can be used as a pretrained model to generate IFX counterfactual predictions in future studies, pending external validation and assessment of transportability.