Vision Technologies with Applications in Traffic Surveillance Systems: A Holistic Survey

Traffic Surveillance Systems (TSS) have become increasingly crucial in modern intelligent transportation systems, with vision-based technologies playing a central role for scene perception and understanding. While existing surveys typically focus on isolated aspects of TSS, a comprehensive analysis bridging low-level and high-level perception tasks, particularly considering emerging technologies, remains lacking. This paper presents a systematic review of vision-based technologies in TSS, examining both low-level perception tasks (object detection, classification, and tracking) and high-level perception applications (parameter estimation, anomaly detection, and behavior understanding). Specifically, we first provide a detailed methodological categorization and comprehensive performance evaluation for each task. Our investigation reveals five fundamental limitations in current TSS: perceptual data degradation in complex scenarios, data-driven learning constraints, semantic understanding gaps, sensing coverage limitations and computational resource demands. To address these challenges, we systematically analyze five categories of potential solutions: advanced perception enhancement, efficient learning paradigms, knowledge-enhanced understanding, cooperative sensing frameworks and efficient computing frameworks. Furthermore, we evaluate the transformative potential of foundation models in TSS, demonstrating their unique capabilities in zero-shot learning, semantic understanding, and scene generation. This review provides a unified framework bridging low-level and high-level perception tasks, systematically analyzes current limitations and solutions, and presents a structured roadmap for integrating emerging technologies, particularly foundation models, to enhance TSS capabilities.

Learning Robust Treatment Rules for Censored Data

There is a fast-growing literature on estimating optimal treatment rules directly by maximizing the expected outcome. In biomedical studies and operations applications, censored survival outcome is frequently observed, in which case the restricted mean survival time and survival probability are of great interest. In this paper, we propose two robust criteria for learning optimal treatment rules with censored survival outcomes; the former one targets at an optimal treatment rule maximizing the restricted mean survival time, where the restriction is specified by a given quantile such as median; the latter one targets at an optimal treatment rule maximizing buffered survival probabilities, where the predetermined threshold is adjusted to account the restricted mean survival time. We provide theoretical justifications for the proposed optimal treatment rules and develop a sampling-based difference-of-convex algorithm for learning them. In simulation studies, our estimators show improved performance compared to existing methods. We also demonstrate the proposed method using AIDS clinical trial data.

Individualized Treatment Allocations with Distributional Welfare

In this paper, we explore optimal treatment allocation policies that target distributional welfare. Most literature on treatment choice has considered utilitarian welfare based on the conditional average treatment effect (ATE). While average welfare is intuitive, it may yield undesirable allocations especially when individuals are heterogeneous (e.g., with outliers) - the very reason individualized treatments were introduced in the first place. This observation motivates us to propose an optimal policy that allocates the treatment based on the conditional \emph{quantile of individual treatment effects} (QoTE). Depending on the choice of the quantile probability, this criterion can accommodate a policymaker who is either prudent or negligent. The challenge of identifying the QoTE lies in its requirement for knowledge of the joint distribution of the counterfactual outcomes, which is generally hard to recover even with experimental data. Therefore, we introduce minimax optimal policies that are robust to model uncertainty. We then propose a range of identifying assumptions under which we can point or partially identify the QoTE. We establish the asymptotic bound on the regret of implementing the proposed policies. We consider both stochastic and deterministic rules. In simulations and two empirical applications, we compare optimal decisions based on the QoTE with decisions based on other criteria.

A Semiparametric Instrumented Difference-in-Differences Approach to Policy Learning

Recently, there has been a surge in methodological development for the difference-in-differences (DiD) approach to evaluate causal effects. Standard methods in the literature rely on the parallel trends assumption to identify the average treatment effect on the treated. However, the parallel trends assumption may be violated in the presence of unmeasured confounding, and the average treatment effect on the treated may not be useful in learning a treatment assignment policy for the entire population. In this article, we propose a general instrumented DiD approach for learning the optimal treatment policy. Specifically, we establish identification results using a binary instrumental variable (IV) when the parallel trends assumption fails to hold. Additionally, we construct a Wald estimator, novel inverse probability weighting (IPW) estimators, and a class of semiparametric efficient and multiply robust estimators, with theoretical guarantees on consistency and asymptotic normality, even when relying on flexible machine learning algorithms for nuisance parameters estimation. Furthermore, we extend the instrumented DiD to the panel data setting. We evaluate our methods in extensive simulations and a real data application.

Proximal Causal Learning of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

Optimal Individualized Decision-Making with Proxies

A common concern when a policymaker draws causal inferences from and makes decisions based on observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding, i.e., the standard no confoundedness assumption fails to hold. The recently proposed proximal causal inference framework shows that proxy variables can be leveraged to identify causal effects and therefore facilitate decision-making. Building upon this line of work, we propose a novel optimal individualized treatment regime based on so-called outcome-inducing and treatment-inducing confounding bridges. We then show that the value function of this new optimal treatment regime is superior to that of existing ones in the literature. Theoretical guarantees, including identification, superiority, and excess value bound of the estimated regime, are established. Furthermore, we demonstrate the proposed optimal regime via numerical experiments and a real data application.

Pessimistic Model Selection for Offline Deep Reinforcement Learning

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) has demonstrated great potentials in solving sequential decision making problems in many applications. Despite its promising performance, practical gaps exist when deploying DRL in real-world scenarios. One main barrier is the over-fitting issue that leads to poor generalizability of the policy learned by DRL. In particular, for offline DRL with observational data, model selection is a challenging task as there is no ground truth available for performance demonstration, in contrast with the online setting with simulated environments. In this work, we propose a pessimistic model selection (PMS) approach for offline DRL with a theoretical guarantee, which features a provably effective framework for finding the best policy among a set of candidate models. Two refined approaches are also proposed to address the potential bias of DRL model in identifying the optimal policy. Numerical studies demonstrated the superior performance of our approach over existing methods.

Individualized Decision-Making Under Partial Identification: Three Perspectives, Two Optimality Results, and One Paradox

Unmeasured confounding is a threat to causal inference and gives rise to biased estimates. In this article, we consider the problem of individualized decision-making under partial identification. Firstly, we argue that when faced with unmeasured confounding, one should pursue individualized decision-making using partial identification in a comprehensive manner. We establish a formal link between individualized decision-making under partial identification and classical decision theory by considering a lower bound perspective of value/utility function. Secondly, building on this unified framework, we provide a novel minimax solution (i.e., a rule that minimizes the maximum regret for so-called opportunists) for individualized decision-making/policy assignment. Lastly, we provide an interesting paradox drawing on novel connections between two challenging domains, that is, individualized decision-making and unmeasured confounding. Although motivated by instrumental variable bounds, we emphasize that the general framework proposed in this article would in principle apply for a rich set of bounds that might be available under partial identification.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with right-censored data via causal survival forests

There is fast-growing literature on estimating heterogeneous treatment effects via random forests in observational studies. However, there are few approaches available for right-censored survival data. In clinical trials, right-censored survival data are frequently encountered. Quantifying the causal relationship between a treatment and the survival outcome is of great interest. Random forests provide a robust, nonparametric approach to statistical estimation. In addition, recent developments allow forest-based methods to quantify the uncertainty of the estimated heterogeneous treatment effects. We propose causal survival forests that directly target on estimating the treatment effect from an observational study. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators and provide an estimator of the asymptotic variance that enables valid confidence intervals of the estimated treatment effect. The performance of our approach is demonstrated via extensive simulations and data from an HIV study.

A semiparametric instrumental variable approach to optimal treatment regimes under endogeneity

There is a fast-growing literature on estimating optimal treatment regimes based on randomized trials or observational studies under a key identifying condition of no unmeasured confounding. Because confounding by unmeasured factors cannot generally be ruled out with certainty in observational studies or randomized trials subject to noncompliance, we propose a general instrumental variable approach to learning optimal treatment regimes under endogeneity. Specifically, we provide sufficient conditions for the identification of both value function $E[Y_{\cD(L)}]$ for a given regime $\cD$ and optimal regime $\arg \max_{\cD} E[Y_{\cD(L)}]$ with the aid of a binary instrumental variable, when no unmeasured confounding fails to hold. We establish consistency of the proposed weighted estimators. We also extend the proposed method to identify and estimate the optimal treatment regime among those who would comply to the assigned treatment under monotonicity. In this latter case, we establish the somewhat surprising result that the complier optimal regime can be consistently estimated without directly collecting compliance information and therefore without the complier average treatment effect itself being identified. Furthermore, we propose novel semiparametric locally efficient and multiply robust estimators. Our approach is illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a data application on the effect of child rearing on labor participation.