Unlocking Point Processes through Point Set Diffusion

Point processes model the distribution of random point sets in mathematical spaces, such as spatial and temporal domains, with applications in fields like seismology, neuroscience, and economics. Existing statistical and machine learning models for point processes are predominantly constrained by their reliance on the characteristic intensity function, introducing an inherent trade-off between efficiency and flexibility. In this paper, we introduce Point Set Diffusion, a diffusion-based latent variable model that can represent arbitrary point processes on general metric spaces without relying on the intensity function. By directly learning to stochastically interpolate between noise and data point sets, our approach enables efficient, parallel sampling and flexible generation for complex conditional tasks defined on the metric space. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that Point Set Diffusion achieves state-of-the-art performance in unconditional and conditional generation of spatial and spatiotemporal point processes while providing up to orders of magnitude faster sampling than autoregressive baselines.

Flow Matching with Gaussian Process Priors for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Recent advancements in generative modeling, particularly diffusion models, have opened new directions for time series modeling, achieving state-of-the-art performance in forecasting and synthesis. However, the reliance of diffusion-based models on a simple, fixed prior complicates the generative process since the data and prior distributions differ significantly. We introduce TSFlow, a conditional flow matching (CFM) model for time series that simplifies the generative problem by combining Gaussian processes, optimal transport paths, and data-dependent prior distributions. By incorporating (conditional) Gaussian processes, TSFlow aligns the prior distribution more closely with the temporal structure of the data, enhancing both unconditional and conditional generation. Furthermore, we propose conditional prior sampling to enable probabilistic forecasting with an unconditionally trained model. In our experimental evaluation on eight real-world datasets, we demonstrate the generative capabilities of TSFlow, producing high-quality unconditional samples. Finally, we show that both conditionally and unconditionally trained models achieve competitive results in forecasting benchmarks, surpassing other methods on 6 out of 8 datasets.

Efficient Time Series Processing for Transformers and State-Space Models through Token Merging

Transformer architectures have shown promising results in time series processing. However, despite recent advances in subquadratic attention mechanisms or state-space models, processing very long sequences still imposes significant computational requirements. Token merging, which involves replacing multiple tokens with a single one calculated as their linear combination, has shown to considerably improve the throughput of vision transformer architectures while maintaining accuracy. In this work, we go beyond computer vision and perform the first investigations of token merging in time series analysis on both time series transformers and state-space models. To effectively scale token merging to long sequences, we introduce local merging, a domain-specific token merging algorithm that selectively combines tokens within a local neighborhood, adjusting the computational complexity from linear to quadratic based on the neighborhood size. Our comprehensive empirical evaluation demonstrates that token merging offers substantial computational benefits with minimal impact on accuracy across various models and datasets. On the recently proposed Chronos foundation model, we achieve accelerations up to 5400% with only minor accuracy degradations.

Assessing Robustness via Score-Based Adversarial Image Generation

Most adversarial attacks and defenses focus on perturbations within small $\ell_p$-norm constraints. However, $\ell_p$ threat models cannot capture all relevant semantic-preserving perturbations, and hence, the scope of robustness evaluations is limited. In this work, we introduce Score-Based Adversarial Generation (ScoreAG), a novel framework that leverages the advancements in score-based generative models to generate adversarial examples beyond $\ell_p$-norm constraints, so-called unrestricted adversarial examples, overcoming their limitations. Unlike traditional methods, ScoreAG maintains the core semantics of images while generating realistic adversarial examples, either by transforming existing images or synthesizing new ones entirely from scratch. We further exploit the generative capability of ScoreAG to purify images, empirically enhancing the robustness of classifiers. Our extensive empirical evaluation demonstrates that ScoreAG matches the performance of state-of-the-art attacks and defenses across multiple benchmarks. This work highlights the importance of investigating adversarial examples bounded by semantics rather than $\ell_p$-norm constraints. ScoreAG represents an important step towards more encompassing robustness assessments.

Predict, Refine, Synthesize: Self-Guiding Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

U-PET: MRI-based Dementia Detection with Joint Generation of Synthetic FDG-PET Images

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia. An early detection is crucial for slowing down the disease and mitigating risks related to the progression. While the combination of MRI and FDG-PET is the best image-based tool for diagnosis, FDG-PET is not always available. The reliable detection of Alzheimer's disease with only MRI could be beneficial, especially in regions where FDG-PET might not be affordable for all patients. To this end, we propose a multi-task method based on U-Net that takes T1-weighted MR images as an input to generate synthetic FDG-PET images and classifies the dementia progression of the patient into cognitive normal (CN), cognitive impairment (MCI), and AD. The attention gates used in both task heads can visualize the most relevant parts of the brain, guiding the examiner and adding interpretability. Results show the successful generation of synthetic FDG-PET images and a performance increase in disease classification over the naive single-task baseline.

Self-Supervised Learning from Unlabeled Fundus Photographs Improves Segmentation of the Retina

Fundus photography is the primary method for retinal imaging and essential for diabetic retinopathy prevention. Automated segmentation of fundus photographs would improve the quality, capacity, and cost-effectiveness of eye care screening programs. However, current segmentation methods are not robust towards the diversity in imaging conditions and pathologies typical for real-world clinical applications. To overcome these limitations, we utilized contrastive self-supervised learning to exploit the large variety of unlabeled fundus images in the publicly available EyePACS dataset. We pre-trained an encoder of a U-Net, which we later fine-tuned on several retinal vessel and lesion segmentation datasets. We demonstrate for the first time that by using contrastive self-supervised learning, the pre-trained network can recognize blood vessels, optic disc, fovea, and various lesions without being provided any labels. Furthermore, when fine-tuned on a downstream blood vessel segmentation task, such pre-trained networks achieve state-of-the-art performance on images from different datasets. Additionally, the pre-training also leads to shorter training times and an improved few-shot performance on both blood vessel and lesion segmentation tasks. Altogether, our results showcase the benefits of contrastive self-supervised pre-training which can play a crucial role in real-world clinical applications requiring robust models able to adapt to new devices with only a few annotated samples.