Scaling Law for Time Series Forecasting

Scaling law that rewards large datasets, complex models and enhanced data granularity has been observed in various fields of deep learning. Yet, studies on time series forecasting have cast doubt on scaling behaviors of deep learning methods for time series forecasting: while more training data improves performance, more capable models do not always outperform less capable models, and longer input horizons may hurt performance for some models. We propose a theory for scaling law for time series forecasting that can explain these seemingly abnormal behaviors. We take into account the impact of dataset size and model complexity, as well as time series data granularity, particularly focusing on the look-back horizon, an aspect that has been unexplored in previous theories. Furthermore, we empirically evaluate various models using a diverse set of time series forecasting datasets, which (1) verifies the validity of scaling law on dataset size and model complexity within the realm of time series forecasting, and (2) validates our theoretical framework, particularly regarding the influence of look back horizon. We hope our findings may inspire new models targeting time series forecasting datasets of limited size, as well as large foundational datasets and models for time series forecasting in future works.\footnote{Codes for our experiments will be made public at: \url{https://github.com/JingzheShi/ScalingLawForTimeSeriesForecasting}.

CHOPS: CHat with custOmer Profile Systems for Customer Service with LLMs

Businesses and software platforms are increasingly turning to Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-3.5, GPT-4, GLM-3, and LLaMa-2 for chat assistance with file access or as reasoning agents for customer service. However, current LLM-based customer service models have limited integration with customer profiles and lack the operational capabilities necessary for effective service. Moreover, existing API integrations emphasize diversity over the precision and error avoidance essential in real-world customer service scenarios. To address these issues, we propose an LLM agent named CHOPS (CHat with custOmer Profile in existing System), designed to: (1) efficiently utilize existing databases or systems for accessing user information or interacting with these systems following existing guidelines; (2) provide accurate and reasonable responses or carry out required operations in the system while avoiding harmful operations; and (3) leverage a combination of small and large LLMs to achieve satisfying performance at a reasonable inference cost. We introduce a practical dataset, the CPHOS-dataset, which includes a database, guiding files, and QA pairs collected from CPHOS, an online platform that facilitates the organization of simulated Physics Olympiads for high school teachers and students. We have conducted extensive experiments to validate the performance of our proposed CHOPS architecture using the CPHOS-dataset, with the aim of demonstrating how LLMs can enhance or serve as alternatives to human customer service. Code for our proposed architecture and dataset can be found at {https://github.com/JingzheShi/CHOPS}.

Large Trajectory Models are Scalable Motion Predictors and Planners

Motion prediction and planning are vital tasks in autonomous driving, and recent efforts have shifted to machine learning-based approaches. The challenges include understanding diverse road topologies, reasoning traffic dynamics over a long time horizon, interpreting heterogeneous behaviors, and generating policies in a large continuous state space. Inspired by the success of large language models in addressing similar complexities through model scaling, we introduce a scalable trajectory model called State Transformer (STR). STR reformulates the motion prediction and motion planning problems by arranging observations, states, and actions into one unified sequence modeling task. With a simple model design, STR consistently outperforms baseline approaches in both problems. Remarkably, experimental results reveal that large trajectory models (LTMs), such as STR, adhere to the scaling laws by presenting outstanding adaptability and learning efficiency. Qualitative results further demonstrate that LTMs are capable of making plausible predictions in scenarios that diverge significantly from the training data distribution. LTMs also learn to make complex reasonings for long-term planning, without explicit loss designs or costly high-level annotations.