Causal Interventional Prediction System for Robust and Explainable Effect Forecasting

Although the widespread use of AI systems in today's world is growing, many current AI systems are found vulnerable due to hidden bias and missing information, especially in the most commonly used forecasting system. In this work, we explore the robustness and explainability of AI-based forecasting systems. We provide an in-depth analysis of the underlying causality involved in the effect prediction task and further establish a causal graph based on treatment, adjustment variable, confounder, and outcome. Correspondingly, we design a causal interventional prediction system (CIPS) based on a variational autoencoder and fully conditional specification of multiple imputations. Extensive results demonstrate the superiority of our system over state-of-the-art methods and show remarkable versatility and extensibility in practice.

Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network for Marketing Campaigns Effect

Marketing campaigns are a set of strategic activities that can promote a business's goal. The effect prediction for marketing campaigns in a real industrial scenario is very complex and challenging due to the fact that prior knowledge is often learned from observation data, without any intervention for the marketing campaign. Furthermore, each subject is always under the interference of several marketing campaigns simultaneously. Therefore, we cannot easily parse and evaluate the effect of a single marketing campaign. To the best of our knowledge, there are currently no effective methodologies to solve such a problem, i.e., modeling an individual-level prediction task based on a hierarchical structure with multiple intertwined events. In this paper, we provide an in-depth analysis of the underlying parse tree-like structure involved in the effect prediction task and we further establish a Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network (HapNet) for predicting the effects of marketing campaigns. Extensive results based on both the synthetic data and real data demonstrate the superiority of our model over the state-of-the-art methods and show remarkable practicability in real industrial applications.

Thermal Infrared Image Colorization for Nighttime Driving Scenes with Top-Down Guided Attention

Benefitting from insensitivity to light and high penetration of foggy environments, infrared cameras are widely used for sensing in nighttime traffic scenes. However, the low contrast and lack of chromaticity of thermal infrared (TIR) images hinder the human interpretation and portability of high-level computer vision algorithms. Colorization to translate a nighttime TIR image into a daytime color (NTIR2DC) image may be a promising way to facilitate nighttime scene perception. Despite recent impressive advances in image translation, semantic encoding entanglement and geometric distortion in the NTIR2DC task remain under-addressed. Hence, we propose a toP-down attEntion And gRadient aLignment based GAN, referred to as PearlGAN. A top-down guided attention module and an elaborate attentional loss are first designed to reduce the semantic encoding ambiguity during translation. Then, a structured gradient alignment loss is introduced to encourage edge consistency between the translated and input images. In addition, pixel-level annotation is carried out on a subset of FLIR and KAIST datasets to evaluate the semantic preservation performance of multiple translation methods. Furthermore, a new metric is devised to evaluate the geometric consistency in the translation process. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed PearlGAN over other image translation methods for the NTIR2DC task. The source code and labeled segmentation masks will be available at \url{https://github.com/FuyaLuo/PearlGAN/}.