Generative Monoculture in Large Language Models

We introduce {\em generative monoculture}, a behavior observed in large language models (LLMs) characterized by a significant narrowing of model output diversity relative to available training data for a given task: for example, generating only positive book reviews for books with a mixed reception. While in some cases, generative monoculture enhances performance (e.g., LLMs more often produce efficient code), the dangers are exacerbated in others (e.g., LLMs refuse to share diverse opinions). As LLMs are increasingly used in high-impact settings such as education and web search, careful maintenance of LLM output diversity is essential to ensure a variety of facts and perspectives are preserved over time. We experimentally demonstrate the prevalence of generative monoculture through analysis of book review and code generation tasks, and find that simple countermeasures such as altering sampling or prompting strategies are insufficient to mitigate the behavior. Moreover, our results suggest that the root causes of generative monoculture are likely embedded within the LLM's alignment processes, suggesting a need for developing fine-tuning paradigms that preserve or promote diversity.

Estimating and Implementing Conventional Fairness Metrics With Probabilistic Protected Features

The vast majority of techniques to train fair models require access to the protected attribute (e.g., race, gender), either at train time or in production. However, in many important applications this protected attribute is largely unavailable. In this paper, we develop methods for measuring and reducing fairness violations in a setting with limited access to protected attribute labels. Specifically, we assume access to protected attribute labels on a small subset of the dataset of interest, but only probabilistic estimates of protected attribute labels (e.g., via Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding) for the rest of the dataset. With this setting in mind, we propose a method to estimate bounds on common fairness metrics for an existing model, as well as a method for training a model to limit fairness violations by solving a constrained non-convex optimization problem. Unlike similar existing approaches, our methods take advantage of contextual information -- specifically, the relationships between a model's predictions and the probabilistic prediction of protected attributes, given the true protected attribute, and vice versa -- to provide tighter bounds on the true disparity. We provide an empirical illustration of our methods using voting data. First, we show our measurement method can bound the true disparity up to 5.5x tighter than previous methods in these applications. Then, we demonstrate that our training technique effectively reduces disparity while incurring lesser fairness-accuracy trade-offs than other fair optimization methods with limited access to protected attributes.

Toward Operationalizing Pipeline-aware ML Fairness: A Research Agenda for Developing Practical Guidelines and Tools

While algorithmic fairness is a thriving area of research, in practice, mitigating issues of bias often gets reduced to enforcing an arbitrarily chosen fairness metric, either by enforcing fairness constraints during the optimization step, post-processing model outputs, or by manipulating the training data. Recent work has called on the ML community to take a more holistic approach to tackle fairness issues by systematically investigating the many design choices made through the ML pipeline, and identifying interventions that target the issue's root cause, as opposed to its symptoms. While we share the conviction that this pipeline-based approach is the most appropriate for combating algorithmic unfairness on the ground, we believe there are currently very few methods of \emph{operationalizing} this approach in practice. Drawing on our experience as educators and practitioners, we first demonstrate that without clear guidelines and toolkits, even individuals with specialized ML knowledge find it challenging to hypothesize how various design choices influence model behavior. We then consult the fair-ML literature to understand the progress to date toward operationalizing the pipeline-aware approach: we systematically collect and organize the prior work that attempts to detect, measure, and mitigate various sources of unfairness through the ML pipeline. We utilize this extensive categorization of previous contributions to sketch a research agenda for the community. We hope this work serves as the stepping stone toward a more comprehensive set of resources for ML researchers, practitioners, and students interested in exploring, designing, and testing pipeline-oriented approaches to algorithmic fairness.

Algorithmic Fairness and Vertical Equity: Income Fairness with IRS Tax Audit Models

This study examines issues of algorithmic fairness in the context of systems that inform tax audit selection by the United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS). While the field of algorithmic fairness has developed primarily around notions of treating like individuals alike, we instead explore the concept of vertical equity -- appropriately accounting for relevant differences across individuals -- which is a central component of fairness in many public policy settings. Applied to the design of the U.S. individual income tax system, vertical equity relates to the fair allocation of tax and enforcement burdens across taxpayers of different income levels. Through a unique collaboration with the Treasury Department and IRS, we use access to anonymized individual taxpayer microdata, risk-selected audits, and random audits from 2010-14 to study vertical equity in tax administration. In particular, we assess how the use of modern machine learning methods for selecting audits may affect vertical equity. First, we show how the use of more flexible machine learning (classification) methods -- as opposed to simpler models -- shifts audit burdens from high to middle-income taxpayers. Second, we show that while existing algorithmic fairness techniques can mitigate some disparities across income, they can incur a steep cost to performance. Third, we show that the choice of whether to treat risk of underreporting as a classification or regression problem is highly consequential. Moving from classification to regression models to predict underreporting shifts audit burden substantially toward high income individuals, while increasing revenue. Last, we explore the role of differential audit cost in shaping the audit distribution. We show that a narrow focus on return-on-investment can undermine vertical equity. Our results have implications for the design of algorithmic tools across the public sector.

Selective Ensembles for Consistent Predictions

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in high-stakes contexts, such as medical diagnosis and finance. We show that this inconsistent behavior extends beyond predictions to feature attributions, which may likewise have negative implications for the intelligibility of a model, and one's ability to find recourse for subjects. We then introduce selective ensembles to mitigate such inconsistencies by applying hypothesis testing to the predictions of a set of models trained using randomly-selected starting conditions; importantly, selective ensembles can abstain in cases where a consistent outcome cannot be achieved up to a specified confidence level. We prove that that prediction disagreement between selective ensembles is bounded, and empirically demonstrate that selective ensembles achieve consistent predictions and feature attributions while maintaining low abstention rates. On several benchmark datasets, selective ensembles reach zero inconsistently predicted points, with abstention rates as low 1.5%.

Consistent Counterfactuals for Deep Models

Counterfactual examples are one of the most commonly-cited methods for explaining the predictions of machine learning models in key areas such as finance and medical diagnosis. Counterfactuals are often discussed under the assumption that the model on which they will be used is static, but in deployment models may be periodically retrained or fine-tuned. This paper studies the consistency of model prediction on counterfactual examples in deep networks under small changes to initial training conditions, such as weight initialization and leave-one-out variations in data, as often occurs during model deployment. We demonstrate experimentally that counterfactual examples for deep models are often inconsistent across such small changes, and that increasing the cost of the counterfactual, a stability-enhancing mitigation suggested by prior work in the context of simpler models, is not a reliable heuristic in deep networks. Rather, our analysis shows that a model's local Lipschitz continuity around the counterfactual is key to its consistency across related models. To this end, we propose Stable Neighbor Search as a way to generate more consistent counterfactual explanations, and illustrate the effectiveness of this approach on several benchmark datasets.

Leave-one-out Unfairness

We introduce leave-one-out unfairness, which characterizes how likely a model's prediction for an individual will change due to the inclusion or removal of a single other person in the model's training data. Leave-one-out unfairness appeals to the idea that fair decisions are not arbitrary: they should not be based on the chance event of any one person's inclusion in the training data. Leave-one-out unfairness is closely related to algorithmic stability, but it focuses on the consistency of an individual point's prediction outcome over unit changes to the training data, rather than the error of the model in aggregate. Beyond formalizing leave-one-out unfairness, we characterize the extent to which deep models behave leave-one-out unfairly on real data, including in cases where the generalization error is small. Further, we demonstrate that adversarial training and randomized smoothing techniques have opposite effects on leave-one-out fairness, which sheds light on the relationships between robustness, memorization, individual fairness, and leave-one-out fairness in deep models. Finally, we discuss salient practical applications that may be negatively affected by leave-one-out unfairness.

FlipTest: Fairness Auditing via Optimal Transport

We present FlipTest, a black-box auditing technique for uncovering subgroup discrimination in predictive models. Combining the concepts of individual and group fairness, we search for discrimination by matching individuals in different protected groups to each other, and their comparing classifier outcomes. Specifically, we formulate a GAN-based approximation of the optimal transport mapping, and use it to translate the distribution of one protected group to that of another, returning pairs of in-distribution samples that statistically correspond to one another. We then define the flipset: the set of individuals whose classifier output changes post-translation, which intuitively corresponds to the set of people who were harmed because of their protected group membership. To shed light on why the model treats a given subgroup differently, we introduce the transparency report: a ranking of features that are most associated with the model's behavior on the flipset. We show that this provides a computationally inexpensive way to identify subgroups that are harmed by model discrimination, including in cases where the model satisfies population-level group fairness criteria.

Feature-Wise Bias Amplification

We study the phenomenon of bias amplification in classifiers, wherein a machine learning model learns to predict classes with a greater disparity than the underlying ground truth. We demonstrate that bias amplification can arise via an inductive bias in gradient descent methods that results in the overestimation of the importance of moderately-predictive "weak" features if insufficient training data is available. This overestimation gives rise to feature-wise bias amplification -- a previously unreported form of bias that can be traced back to the features of a trained model. Through analysis and experiments, we show that while some bias cannot be mitigated without sacrificing accuracy, feature-wise bias amplification can be mitigated through targeted feature selection. We present two new feature selection algorithms for mitigating bias amplification in linear models, and show how they can be adapted to convolutional neural networks efficiently. Our experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate that these algorithms consistently lead to reduced bias without harming accuracy, in some cases eliminating predictive bias altogether while providing modest gains in accuracy.