MP-PINN: A Multi-Phase Physics-Informed Neural Network for Epidemic Forecasting

Forecasting temporal processes such as virus spreading in epidemics often requires more than just observed time-series data, especially at the beginning of a wave when data is limited. Traditional methods employ mechanistic models like the SIR family, which make strong assumptions about the underlying spreading process, often represented as a small set of compact differential equations. Data-driven methods such as deep neural networks make no such assumptions and can capture the generative process in more detail, but fail in long-term forecasting due to data limitations. We propose a new hybrid method called MP-PINN (Multi-Phase Physics-Informed Neural Network) to overcome the limitations of these two major approaches. MP-PINN instils the spreading mechanism into a neural network, enabling the mechanism to update in phases over time, reflecting the dynamics of the epidemics due to policy interventions. Experiments on COVID-19 waves demonstrate that MP-PINN achieves superior performance over pure data-driven or model-driven approaches for both short-term and long-term forecasting.

Stable Hadamard Memory: Revitalizing Memory-Augmented Agents for Reinforcement Learning

Effective decision-making in partially observable environments demands robust memory management. Despite their success in supervised learning, current deep-learning memory models struggle in reinforcement learning environments that are partially observable and long-term. They fail to efficiently capture relevant past information, adapt flexibly to changing observations, and maintain stable updates over long episodes. We theoretically analyze the limitations of existing memory models within a unified framework and introduce the Stable Hadamard Memory, a novel memory model for reinforcement learning agents. Our model dynamically adjusts memory by erasing no longer needed experiences and reinforcing crucial ones computationally efficiently. To this end, we leverage the Hadamard product for calibrating and updating memory, specifically designed to enhance memory capacity while mitigating numerical and learning challenges. Our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art memory-based methods on challenging partially observable benchmarks, such as meta-reinforcement learning, long-horizon credit assignment, and POPGym, demonstrating superior performance in handling long-term and evolving contexts.

Contrastive explainable clustering with differential privacy

This paper presents a novel approach in Explainable AI (XAI), integrating contrastive explanations with differential privacy in clustering methods. For several basic clustering problems, including $k$-median and $k$-means, we give efficient differential private contrastive explanations that achieve essentially the same explanations as those that non-private clustering explanations can obtain. We define contrastive explanations as the utility difference between the original clustering utility and utility from clustering with a specifically fixed centroid. In each contrastive scenario, we designate a specific data point as the fixed centroid position, enabling us to measure the impact of this constraint on clustering utility under differential privacy. Extensive experiments across various datasets show our method's effectiveness in providing meaningful explanations without significantly compromising data privacy or clustering utility. This underscores our contribution to privacy-aware machine learning, demonstrating the feasibility of achieving a balance between privacy and utility in the explanation of clustering tasks.

Differentially private exact recovery for stochastic block models

Stochastic block models (SBMs) are a very commonly studied network model for community detection algorithms. In the standard form of an SBM, the $n$ vertices (or nodes) of a graph are generally divided into multiple pre-determined communities (or clusters). Connections between pairs of vertices are generated randomly and independently with pre-defined probabilities, which depend on the communities containing the two nodes. A fundamental problem in SBMs is the recovery of the community structure, and sharp information-theoretic bounds are known for recoverability for many versions of SBMs. Our focus here is the recoverability problem in SBMs when the network is private. Under the edge differential privacy model, we derive conditions for exact recoverability in three different versions of SBMs, namely Asymmetric SBM (when communities have non-uniform sizes), General Structure SBM (with outliers), and Censored SBM (with edge features). Our private algorithms have polynomial running time w.r.t. the input graph's size, and match the recovery thresholds of the non-private setting when $\epsilon\rightarrow\infty$. In contrast, the previous best results for recoverability in SBMs only hold for the symmetric case (equal size communities), and run in quasi-polynomial time, or in polynomial time with recovery thresholds being tight up to some constants from the non-private settings.

Multi-Reference Preference Optimization for Large Language Models

How can Large Language Models (LLMs) be aligned with human intentions and values? A typical solution is to gather human preference on model outputs and finetune the LLMs accordingly while ensuring that updates do not deviate too far from a reference model. Recent approaches, such as direct preference optimization (DPO), have eliminated the need for unstable and sluggish reinforcement learning optimization by introducing close-formed supervised losses. However, a significant limitation of the current approach is its design for a single reference model only, neglecting to leverage the collective power of numerous pretrained LLMs. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel closed-form formulation for direct preference optimization using multiple reference models. The resulting algorithm, Multi-Reference Preference Optimization (MRPO), leverages broader prior knowledge from diverse reference models, substantially enhancing preference learning capabilities compared to the single-reference DPO. Our experiments demonstrate that LLMs finetuned with MRPO generalize better in various preference data, regardless of data scarcity or abundance. Furthermore, MRPO effectively finetunes LLMs to exhibit superior performance in several downstream natural language processing tasks such as GSM8K and TruthfulQA.

Enhancing Length Extrapolation in Sequential Models with Pointer-Augmented Neural Memory

We propose Pointer-Augmented Neural Memory (PANM) to help neural networks understand and apply symbol processing to new, longer sequences of data. PANM integrates an external neural memory that uses novel physical addresses and pointer manipulation techniques to mimic human and computer symbol processing abilities. PANM facilitates pointer assignment, dereference, and arithmetic by explicitly using physical pointers to access memory content. Remarkably, it can learn to perform these operations through end-to-end training on sequence data, powering various sequential models. Our experiments demonstrate PANM's exceptional length extrapolating capabilities and improved performance in tasks that require symbol processing, such as algorithmic reasoning and Dyck language recognition. PANM helps Transformer achieve up to 100% generalization accuracy in compositional learning tasks and significantly better results in mathematical reasoning, question answering and machine translation tasks.

Variational Flow Models: Flowing in Your Style

We introduce a variational inference interpretation for models of "posterior flows" - generalizations of "probability flows" to a broader class of stochastic processes not necessarily diffusion processes. We coin the resulting models as "Variational Flow Models". Additionally, we propose a systematic training-free method to transform the posterior flow of a "linear" stochastic process characterized by the equation Xt = at * X0 + st * X1 into a straight constant-speed (SC) flow, reminiscent of Rectified Flow. This transformation facilitates fast sampling along the original posterior flow without training a new model of the SC flow. The flexibility of our approach allows us to extend our transformation to inter-convert two posterior flows from distinct "linear" stochastic processes. Moreover, we can easily integrate high-order numerical solvers into the transformed SC flow, further enhancing sampling accuracy and efficiency. Rigorous theoretical analysis and extensive experimental results substantiate the advantages of our framework.

Revisiting the Dataset Bias Problem from a Statistical Perspective

In this paper, we study the "dataset bias" problem from a statistical standpoint, and identify the main cause of the problem as the strong correlation between a class attribute u and a non-class attribute b in the input x, represented by p(u|b) differing significantly from p(u). Since p(u|b) appears as part of the sampling distributions in the standard maximum log-likelihood (MLL) objective, a model trained on a biased dataset via MLL inherently incorporates such correlation into its parameters, leading to poor generalization to unbiased test data. From this observation, we propose to mitigate dataset bias via either weighting the objective of each sample n by \frac{1}{p(u_{n}|b_{n})} or sampling that sample with a weight proportional to \frac{1}{p(u_{n}|b_{n})}. While both methods are statistically equivalent, the former proves more stable and effective in practice. Additionally, we establish a connection between our debiasing approach and causal reasoning, reinforcing our method's theoretical foundation. However, when the bias label is unavailable, computing p(u|b) exactly is difficult. To overcome this challenge, we propose to approximate \frac{1}{p(u|b)} using a biased classifier trained with "bias amplification" losses. Extensive experiments on various biased datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method over existing debiasing techniques in most settings, validating our theoretical analysis.

Intrinsic Motivation via Surprise Memory

We present a new computing model for intrinsic rewards in reinforcement learning that addresses the limitations of existing surprise-driven explorations. The reward is the novelty of the surprise rather than the surprise norm. We estimate the surprise novelty as retrieval errors of a memory network wherein the memory stores and reconstructs surprises. Our surprise memory (SM) augments the capability of surprise-based intrinsic motivators, maintaining the agent's interest in exciting exploration while reducing unwanted attraction to unpredictable or noisy observations. Our experiments demonstrate that the SM combined with various surprise predictors exhibits efficient exploring behaviors and significantly boosts the final performance in sparse reward environments, including Noisy-TV, navigation and challenging Atari games.

Memory-Augmented Theory of Mind Network

Social reasoning necessitates the capacity of theory of mind (ToM), the ability to contextualise and attribute mental states to others without having access to their internal cognitive structure. Recent machine learning approaches to ToM have demonstrated that we can train the observer to read the past and present behaviours of other agents and infer their beliefs (including false beliefs about things that no longer exist), goals, intentions and future actions. The challenges arise when the behavioural space is complex, demanding skilful space navigation for rapidly changing contexts for an extended period. We tackle the challenges by equipping the observer with novel neural memory mechanisms to encode, and hierarchical attention to selectively retrieve information about others. The memories allow rapid, selective querying of distal related past behaviours of others to deliberatively reason about their current mental state, beliefs and future behaviours. This results in ToMMY, a theory of mind model that learns to reason while making little assumptions about the underlying mental processes. We also construct a new suite of experiments to demonstrate that memories facilitate the learning process and achieve better theory of mind performance, especially for high-demand false-belief tasks that require inferring through multiple steps of changes.