Score-based Integrated Gradient for Root Cause Explanations of Outliers

Identifying the root causes of outliers is a fundamental problem in causal inference and anomaly detection. Traditional approaches based on heuristics or counterfactual reasoning often struggle under uncertainty and high-dimensional dependencies. We introduce SIREN, a novel and scalable method that attributes the root causes of outliers by estimating the score functions of the data likelihood. Attribution is computed via integrated gradients that accumulate score contributions along paths from the outlier toward the normal data distribution. Our method satisfies three of the four classic Shapley value axioms - dummy, efficiency, and linearity - as well as an asymmetry axiom derived from the underlying causal structure. Unlike prior work, SIREN operates directly on the score function, enabling tractable and uncertainty-aware root cause attribution in nonlinear, high-dimensional, and heteroscedastic causal models. Extensive experiments on synthetic random graphs and real-world cloud service and supply chain datasets show that SIREN outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both attribution accuracy and computational efficiency.

Federated Domain Generalization with Latent Space Inversion

Federated domain generalization (FedDG) addresses distribution shifts among clients in a federated learning framework. FedDG methods aggregate the parameters of locally trained client models to form a global model that generalizes to unseen clients while preserving data privacy. While improving the generalization capability of the global model, many existing approaches in FedDG jeopardize privacy by sharing statistics of client data between themselves. Our solution addresses this problem by contributing new ways to perform local client training and model aggregation. To improve local client training, we enforce (domain) invariance across local models with the help of a novel technique, \textbf{latent space inversion}, which enables better client privacy. When clients are not \emph{i.i.d}, aggregating their local models may discard certain local adaptations. To overcome this, we propose an \textbf{important weight} aggregation strategy to prioritize parameters that significantly influence predictions of local models during aggregation. Our extensive experiments show that our approach achieves superior results over state-of-the-art methods with less communication overhead.

Probabilities Are All You Need: A Probability-Only Approach to Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit strong performance across various natural language processing (NLP) tasks but remain vulnerable to hallucinations, generating factually incorrect or misleading outputs. Uncertainty estimation, often using predictive entropy estimation, is key to addressing this issue. However, existing methods often require multiple samples or extra computation to assess semantic entropy. This paper proposes an efficient, training-free uncertainty estimation method that approximates predictive entropy using the responses' top-$K$ probabilities. Moreover, we employ an adaptive mechanism to determine $K$ to enhance flexibility and filter out low-confidence probabilities. Experimental results on three free-form question-answering datasets across several LLMs demonstrate that our method outperforms expensive state-of-the-art baselines, contributing to the broader goal of enhancing LLM trustworthiness.

GRAD: Graph-Retrieved Adaptive Decoding for Hallucination Mitigation

Hallucination mitigation remains a persistent challenge for large language models (LLMs), even as model scales grow. Existing approaches often rely on external knowledge sources, such as structured databases or knowledge graphs, accessed through prompting or retrieval. However, prompt-based grounding is fragile and domain-sensitive, while symbolic knowledge integration incurs heavy retrieval and formatting costs. Motivated by knowledge graphs, we introduce Graph-Retrieved Adaptive Decoding (GRAD), a decoding-time method that grounds generation in corpus-derived evidence without retraining. GRAD constructs a sparse token transition graph by accumulating next-token logits across a small retrieved corpus in a single forward pass. During decoding, graph-retrieved logits are max-normalized and adaptively fused with model logits to favor high-evidence continuations while preserving fluency. Across three models and a range of question-answering benchmarks spanning intrinsic, extrinsic hallucination, and factuality tasks, GRAD consistently surpasses baselines, achieving up to 9.7$\%$ higher intrinsic accuracy, 8.6$\%$ lower hallucination rates, and 6.9$\%$ greater correctness compared to greedy decoding, while attaining the highest truth--informativeness product score among all methods. GRAD offers a lightweight, plug-and-play alternative to contrastive decoding and knowledge graph augmentation, demonstrating that statistical evidence from corpus-level token transitions can effectively steer generation toward more truthful and verifiable outputs.

DmC: Nearest Neighbor Guidance Diffusion Model for Offline Cross-domain Reinforcement Learning

Cross-domain offline reinforcement learning (RL) seeks to enhance sample efficiency in offline RL by utilizing additional offline source datasets. A key challenge is to identify and utilize source samples that are most relevant to the target domain. Existing approaches address this challenge by measuring domain gaps through domain classifiers, target transition dynamics modeling, or mutual information estimation using contrastive loss. However, these methods often require large target datasets, which is impractical in many real-world scenarios. In this work, we address cross-domain offline RL under a limited target data setting, identifying two primary challenges: (1) Dataset imbalance, which is caused by large source and small target datasets and leads to overfitting in neural network-based domain gap estimators, resulting in uninformative measurements; and (2) Partial domain overlap, where only a subset of the source data is closely aligned with the target domain. To overcome these issues, we propose DmC, a novel framework for cross-domain offline RL with limited target samples. Specifically, DmC utilizes $k$-nearest neighbor ($k$-NN) based estimation to measure domain proximity without neural network training, effectively mitigating overfitting. Then, by utilizing this domain proximity, we introduce a nearest-neighbor-guided diffusion model to generate additional source samples that are better aligned with the target domain, thus enhancing policy learning with more effective source samples. Through theoretical analysis and extensive experiments in diverse MuJoCo environments, we demonstrate that DmC significantly outperforms state-of-the-art cross-domain offline RL methods, achieving substantial performance gains.

Hybrid Cross-domain Robust Reinforcement Learning

Robust reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn policies that remain effective despite uncertainties in its environment, which frequently arise in real-world applications due to variations in environment dynamics. The robust RL methods learn a robust policy by maximizing value under the worst-case models within a predefined uncertainty set. Offline robust RL algorithms are particularly promising in scenarios where only a fixed dataset is available and new data cannot be collected. However, these approaches often require extensive offline data, and gathering such datasets for specific tasks in specific environments can be both costly and time-consuming. Using an imperfect simulator offers a faster, cheaper, and safer way to collect data for training, but it can suffer from dynamics mismatch. In this paper, we introduce HYDRO, the first Hybrid Cross-Domain Robust RL framework designed to address these challenges. HYDRO utilizes an online simulator to complement the limited amount of offline datasets in the non-trivial context of robust RL. By measuring and minimizing performance gaps between the simulator and the worst-case models in the uncertainty set, HYDRO employs novel uncertainty filtering and prioritized sampling to select the most relevant and reliable simulator samples. Our extensive experiments demonstrate HYDRO's superior performance over existing methods across various tasks, underscoring its potential to improve sample efficiency in offline robust RL.

Beyond the Known: Decision Making with Counterfactual Reasoning Decision Transformer

Decision Transformers (DT) play a crucial role in modern reinforcement learning, leveraging offline datasets to achieve impressive results across various domains. However, DT requires high-quality, comprehensive data to perform optimally. In real-world applications, the lack of training data and the scarcity of optimal behaviours make training on offline datasets challenging, as suboptimal data can hinder performance. To address this, we propose the Counterfactual Reasoning Decision Transformer (CRDT), a novel framework inspired by counterfactual reasoning. CRDT enhances DT ability to reason beyond known data by generating and utilizing counterfactual experiences, enabling improved decision-making in unseen scenarios. Experiments across Atari and D4RL benchmarks, including scenarios with limited data and altered dynamics, demonstrate that CRDT outperforms conventional DT approaches. Additionally, reasoning counterfactually allows the DT agent to obtain stitching abilities, combining suboptimal trajectories, without architectural modifications. These results highlight the potential of counterfactual reasoning to enhance reinforcement learning agents' performance and generalization capabilities.

Causal Discovery via Bayesian Optimization

Existing score-based methods for directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning from observational data struggle to recover the causal graph accurately and sample-efficiently. To overcome this, in this study, we propose DrBO (DAG recovery via Bayesian Optimization)-a novel DAG learning framework leveraging Bayesian optimization (BO) to find high-scoring DAGs. We show that, by sophisticatedly choosing the promising DAGs to explore, we can find higher-scoring ones much more efficiently. To address the scalability issues of conventional BO in DAG learning, we replace Gaussian Processes commonly employed in BO with dropout neural networks, trained in a continual manner, which allows for (i) flexibly modeling the DAG scores without overfitting, (ii) incorporation of uncertainty into the estimated scores, and (iii) scaling with the number of evaluations. As a result, DrBO is computationally efficient and can find the accurate DAG in fewer trials and less time than existing state-of-the-art methods. This is demonstrated through an extensive set of empirical evaluations on many challenging settings with both synthetic and real data. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/baosws/DrBO.

Finding the Trigger: Causal Abductive Reasoning on Video Events

This paper introduces a new problem, Causal Abductive Reasoning on Video Events (CARVE), which involves identifying causal relationships between events in a video and generating hypotheses about causal chains that account for the occurrence of a target event. To facilitate research in this direction, we create two new benchmark datasets with both synthetic and realistic videos, accompanied by trigger-target labels generated through a novel counterfactual synthesis approach. To explore the challenge of solving CARVE, we present a Causal Event Relation Network (CERN) that examines the relationships between video events in temporal and semantic spaces to efficiently determine the root-cause trigger events. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the critical roles of event relational representation learning and interaction modeling in solving video causal reasoning challenges. The introduction of the CARVE task, along with the accompanying datasets and the CERN framework, will advance future research on video causal reasoning and significantly facilitate various applications, including video surveillance, root-cause analysis and movie content management.

Few-shot Algorithm Assurance

In image classification tasks, deep learning models are vulnerable to image distortion. For successful deployment, it is important to identify distortion levels under which the model is usable i.e. its accuracy stays above a stipulated threshold. We refer to this problem as Model Assurance under Image Distortion, and formulate it as a classification task. Given a distortion level, our goal is to predict if the model's accuracy on the set of distorted images is greater than a threshold. We propose a novel classifier based on a Level Set Estimation (LSE) algorithm, which uses the LSE's mean and variance functions to form the classification rule. We further extend our method to a "few sample" setting where we can only acquire few real images to perform the model assurance process. Our idea is to generate extra synthetic images using a novel Conditional Variational Autoencoder model with two new loss functions. We conduct extensive experiments to show that our classification method significantly outperforms strong baselines on five benchmark image datasets.