Auto-Regressive Moving Diffusion Models for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting (TSF) is essential in various domains, and recent advancements in diffusion-based TSF models have shown considerable promise. However, these models typically adopt traditional diffusion patterns, treating TSF as a noise-based conditional generation task. This approach neglects the inherent continuous sequential nature of time series, leading to a fundamental misalignment between diffusion mechanisms and the TSF objective, thereby severely impairing performance. To bridge this misalignment, and inspired by the classic Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) theory, which views time series as continuous sequential progressions evolving from previous data points, we propose a novel Auto-Regressive Moving Diffusion (ARMD) model to first achieve the continuous sequential diffusion-based TSF. Unlike previous methods that start from white Gaussian noise, our model employs chain-based diffusion with priors, accurately modeling the evolution of time series and leveraging intermediate state information to improve forecasting accuracy and stability. Specifically, our approach reinterprets the diffusion process by considering future series as the initial state and historical series as the final state, with intermediate series generated using a sliding-based technique during the forward process. This design aligns the diffusion model's sampling procedure with the forecasting objective, resulting in an unconditional, continuous sequential diffusion TSF model. Extensive experiments conducted on seven widely used datasets demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming existing diffusion-based TSF models. Our code is available on GitHub: https://github.com/daxin007/ARMD.

A Data-Driven Framework for Discovering Fractional Differential Equations in Complex Systems

In complex physical systems, conventional differential equations often fall short in capturing non-local and memory effects, as they are limited to local dynamics and integer-order interactions. This study introduces a stepwise data-driven framework for discovering fractional differential equations (FDEs) directly from data. FDEs, known for their capacity to model non-local dynamics with fewer parameters than integer-order derivatives, can represent complex systems with long-range interactions. Our framework applies deep neural networks as surrogate models for denoising and reconstructing sparse and noisy observations while using Gaussian-Jacobi quadrature to handle the challenges posed by singularities in fractional derivatives. To optimize both the sparse coefficients and fractional order, we employ an alternating optimization approach that combines sparse regression with global optimization techniques. We validate the framework across various datasets, including synthetic anomalous diffusion data, experimental data on the creep behavior of frozen soils, and single-particle trajectories modeled by L\'{e}vy motion. Results demonstrate the framework's robustness in identifying the structure of FDEs across diverse noise levels and its capacity to capture integer-order dynamics, offering a flexible approach for modeling memory effects in complex systems.

Teaching Video Diffusion Model with Latent Physical Phenomenon Knowledge

Video diffusion models have exhibited tremendous progress in various video generation tasks. However, existing models struggle to capture latent physical knowledge, failing to infer physical phenomena that are challenging to articulate with natural language. Generating videos following the fundamental physical laws is still an opening challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a novel method to teach video diffusion models with latent physical phenomenon knowledge, enabling the accurate generation of physically informed phenomena. Specifically, we first pretrain Masked Autoencoders (MAE) to reconstruct the physical phenomena, resulting in output embeddings that encapsulate latent physical phenomenon knowledge. Leveraging these embeddings, we could generate the pseudo-language prompt features based on the aligned spatial relationships between CLIP vision and language encoders. Particularly, given that diffusion models typically use CLIP's language encoder for text prompt embeddings, our approach integrates the CLIP visual features informed by latent physical knowledge into a quaternion hidden space. This enables the modeling of spatial relationships to produce physical knowledge-informed pseudo-language prompts. By incorporating these prompt features and fine-tuning the video diffusion model in a parameter-efficient manner, the physical knowledge-informed videos are successfully generated. We validate our method extensively through both numerical simulations and real-world observations of physical phenomena, demonstrating its remarkable performance across diverse scenarios.

Open-Vocabulary Remote Sensing Image Semantic Segmentation

Open-vocabulary image semantic segmentation (OVS) seeks to segment images into semantic regions across an open set of categories. Existing OVS methods commonly depend on foundational vision-language models and utilize similarity computation to tackle OVS tasks. However, these approaches are predominantly tailored to natural images and struggle with the unique characteristics of remote sensing images, such as rapidly changing orientations and significant scale variations. These challenges complicate OVS tasks in earth vision, requiring specialized approaches. To tackle this dilemma, we propose the first OVS framework specifically designed for remote sensing imagery, drawing inspiration from the distinct remote sensing traits. Particularly, to address the varying orientations, we introduce a rotation-aggregative similarity computation module that generates orientation-adaptive similarity maps as initial semantic maps. These maps are subsequently refined at both spatial and categorical levels to produce more accurate semantic maps. Additionally, to manage significant scale changes, we integrate multi-scale image features into the upsampling process, resulting in the final scale-aware semantic masks. To advance OVS in earth vision and encourage reproducible research, we establish the first open-sourced OVS benchmark for remote sensing imagery, including four public remote sensing datasets. Extensive experiments on this benchmark demonstrate our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance. All codes and datasets are available at https://github.com/caoql98/OVRS.

AutoPV: Automatically Design Your Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Model

Photovoltaic power forecasting (PVPF) is a critical area in time series forecasting (TSF), enabling the efficient utilization of solar energy. With advancements in machine learning and deep learning, various models have been applied to PVPF tasks. However, constructing an optimal predictive architecture for specific PVPF tasks remains challenging, as it requires cross-domain knowledge and significant labor costs. To address this challenge, we introduce AutoPV, a novel framework for the automated search and construction of PVPF models based on neural architecture search (NAS) technology. We develop a brand new NAS search space that incorporates various data processing techniques from state-of-the-art (SOTA) TSF models and typical PVPF deep learning models. The effectiveness of AutoPV is evaluated on diverse PVPF tasks using a dataset from the Daqing Photovoltaic Station in China. Experimental results demonstrate that AutoPV can complete the predictive architecture construction process in a relatively short time, and the newly constructed architecture is superior to SOTA predefined models. This work bridges the gap in applying NAS to TSF problems, assisting non-experts and industries in automatically designing effective PVPF models.

Optimization of geological carbon storage operations with multimodal latent dynamic model and deep reinforcement learning

Maximizing storage performance in geological carbon storage (GCS) is crucial for commercial deployment, but traditional optimization demands resource-intensive simulations, posing computational challenges. This study introduces the multimodal latent dynamic (MLD) model, a deep learning framework for fast flow prediction and well control optimization in GCS. The MLD model includes a representation module for compressed latent representations, a transition module for system state evolution, and a prediction module for flow responses. A novel training strategy combining regression loss and joint-embedding consistency loss enhances temporal consistency and multi-step prediction accuracy. Unlike existing models, the MLD supports diverse input modalities, allowing comprehensive data interactions. The MLD model, resembling a Markov decision process (MDP), can train deep reinforcement learning agents, specifically using the soft actor-critic (SAC) algorithm, to maximize net present value (NPV) through continuous interactions. The approach outperforms traditional methods, achieving the highest NPV while reducing computational resources by over 60%. It also demonstrates strong generalization performance, providing improved decisions for new scenarios based on knowledge from previous ones.

When Swarm Learning meets energy series data: A decentralized collaborative learning design based on blockchain

Machine learning models offer the capability to forecast future energy production or consumption and infer essential unknown variables from existing data. However, legal and policy constraints within specific energy sectors render the data sensitive, presenting technical hurdles in utilizing data from diverse sources. Therefore, we propose adopting a Swarm Learning (SL) scheme, which replaces the centralized server with a blockchain-based distributed network to address the security and privacy issues inherent in Federated Learning (FL)'s centralized architecture. Within this distributed Collaborative Learning framework, each participating organization governs nodes for inter-organizational communication. Devices from various organizations utilize smart contracts for parameter uploading and retrieval. Consensus mechanism ensures distributed consistency throughout the learning process, guarantees the transparent trustworthiness and immutability of parameters on-chain. The efficacy of the proposed framework is substantiated across three real-world energy series modeling scenarios with superior performance compared to Local Learning approaches, simultaneously emphasizing enhanced data security and privacy over Centralized Learning and FL method. Notably, as the number of data volume and the count of local epochs increases within a threshold, there is an improvement in model performance accompanied by a reduction in the variance of performance errors. Consequently, this leads to an increased stability and reliability in the outcomes produced by the model.

Cross-variable Linear Integrated ENhanced Transformer for Photovoltaic power forecasting

Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing the operation and planning of PV systems, thereby enabling efficient energy management and grid integration. However, un certainties caused by fluctuating weather conditions and complex interactions between different variables pose significant challenges to accurate PV power forecasting. In this study, we propose PV-Client (Cross-variable Linear Integrated ENhanced Transformer for Photovoltaic power forecasting) to address these challenges and enhance PV power forecasting accuracy. PV-Client employs an ENhanced Transformer module to capture complex interactions of various features in PV systems, and utilizes a linear module to learn trend information in PV power. Diverging from conventional time series-based Transformer models that use cross-time Attention to learn dependencies between different time steps, the Enhanced Transformer module integrates cross-variable Attention to capture dependencies between PV power and weather factors. Furthermore, PV-Client streamlines the embedding and position encoding layers by replacing the Decoder module with a projection layer. Experimental results on three real-world PV power datasets affirm PV-Client's state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in PV power forecasting. Specifically, PV-Client surpasses the second-best model GRU by 5.3% in MSE metrics and 0.9% in accuracy metrics at the Jingang Station. Similarly, PV-Client outperforms the second-best model SVR by 10.1% in MSE metrics and 0.2% in accuracy metrics at the Xinqingnian Station, and PV-Client exhibits superior performance compared to the second-best model SVR with enhancements of 3.4% in MSE metrics and 0.9% in accuracy metrics at the Hongxing Station.

A Noise-robust Multi-head Attention Mechanism for Formation Resistivity Prediction: Frequency Aware LSTM

The prediction of formation resistivity plays a crucial role in the evaluation of oil and gas reservoirs, identification and assessment of geothermal energy resources, groundwater detection and monitoring, and carbon capture and storage. However, traditional well logging techniques fail to measure accurate resistivity in cased boreholes, and the transient electromagnetic method for cased borehole resistivity logging encounters challenges of high-frequency disaster (the problem of inadequate learning by neural networks in high-frequency features) and noise interference, badly affecting accuracy. To address these challenges, frequency-aware framework and temporal anti-noise block are proposed to build frequency aware LSTM (FAL). The frequency-aware framework implements a dual-stream structure through wavelet transformation, allowing the neural network to simultaneously handle high-frequency and low-frequency flows of time-series data, thus avoiding high-frequency disaster. The temporal anti-noise block integrates multiple attention mechanisms and soft-threshold attention mechanisms, enabling the model to better distinguish noise from redundant features. Ablation experiments demonstrate that the frequency-aware framework and temporal anti-noise block contribute significantly to performance improvement. FAL achieves a 24.3% improvement in R2 over LSTM, reaching the highest value of 0.91 among all models. In robustness experiments, the impact of noise on FAL is approximately 1/8 of the baseline, confirming the noise resistance of FAL. The proposed FAL effectively reduces noise interference in predicting formation resistivity from cased transient electromagnetic well logging curves, better learns high-frequency features, and thereby enhances the prediction accuracy and noise resistance of the neural network model.

Discovering an interpretable mathematical expression for a full wind-turbine wake with artificial intelligence enhanced symbolic regression

The rapid expansion of wind power worldwide underscores the critical significance of engineering-focused analytical wake models in both the design and operation of wind farms. These theoretically-derived ana lytical wake models have limited predictive capabilities, particularly in the near-wake region close to the turbine rotor, due to assumptions that do not hold. Knowledge discovery methods can bridge these gaps by extracting insights, adjusting for theoretical assumptions, and developing accurate models for physical processes. In this study, we introduce a genetic symbolic regression (SR) algorithm to discover an interpretable mathematical expression for the mean velocity deficit throughout the wake, a previously unavailable insight. By incorporating a double Gaussian distribution into the SR algorithm as domain knowledge and designing a hierarchical equation structure, the search space is reduced, thus efficiently finding a concise, physically informed, and robust wake model. The proposed mathematical expression (equation) can predict the wake velocity deficit at any location in the full-wake region with high precision and stability. The model's effectiveness and practicality are validated through experimental data and high-fidelity numerical simulations.