Zero-shot Medical Event Prediction Using a Generative Pre-trained Transformer on Electronic Health Records

Longitudinal data in electronic health records (EHRs) represent an individual`s clinical history through a sequence of codified concepts, including diagnoses, procedures, medications, and laboratory tests. Foundational models, such as generative pre-trained transformers (GPT), can leverage this data to predict future events. While fine-tuning of these models enhances task-specific performance, it is costly, complex, and unsustainable for every target. We show that a foundation model trained on EHRs can perform predictive tasks in a zero-shot manner, eliminating the need for fine-tuning. This study presents the first comprehensive analysis of zero-shot forecasting with GPT-based foundational models in EHRs, introducing a novel pipeline that formulates medical concept prediction as a generative modeling task. Unlike supervised approaches requiring extensive labeled data, our method enables the model to forecast a next medical event purely from a pretraining knowledge. We evaluate performance across multiple time horizons and clinical categories, demonstrating model`s ability to capture latent temporal dependencies and complex patient trajectories without task supervision. Model performance for predicting the next medical concept was evaluated using precision and recall metrics, achieving an average top1 precision of 0.614 and recall of 0.524. For 12 major diagnostic conditions, the model demonstrated strong zero-shot performance, achieving high true positive rates while maintaining low false positives. We demonstrate the power of a foundational EHR GPT model in capturing diverse phenotypes and enabling robust, zero-shot forecasting of clinical outcomes. This capability enhances the versatility of predictive healthcare models and reduces the need for task-specific training, enabling more scalable applications in clinical settings.

Evaluation Of P300 Speller Performance Using Large Language Models Along With Cross-Subject Training

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a progressive neuromuscular degenerative disease, severely restricts patient communication capacity within a few years of onset, resulting in a significant deterioration of quality of life. The P300 speller brain computer interface (BCI) offers an alternative communication medium by leveraging a subject's EEG response to characters traditionally highlighted on a character grid on a graphical user interface (GUI). A recurring theme in P300-based research is enhancing performance to enable faster subject interaction. This study builds on that theme by addressing key limitations, particularly in the training of multi-subject classifiers, and by integrating advanced language models to optimize stimuli presentation and word prediction, thereby improving communication efficiency. Furthermore, various advanced large language models such as Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT2), BERT, and BART, alongside Dijkstra's algorithm, are utilized to optimize stimuli and provide word completion choices based on the spelling history. In addition, a multi-layered smoothing approach is applied to allow for out-of-vocabulary (OOV) words. By conducting extensive simulations based on randomly sampled EEG data from subjects, we show substantial speed improvements in typing passages that include rare and out-of-vocabulary (OOV) words, with the extent of improvement varying depending on the language model utilized. The gains through such character-level interface optimizations are approximately 10%, and GPT2 for multi-word prediction provides gains of around 40%. In particular, some large language models achieve performance levels within 10% of the theoretical performance limits established in this study. In addition, both within and across subjects, training techniques are explored, and speed improvements are shown to hold in both cases.

Reducing Overtreatment of Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules Using a Multimodal Deep Learning Model

Objective: Molecular testing (MT) classifies cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules as benign or malignant with high sensitivity but low positive predictive value (PPV), only using molecular profiles, ignoring ultrasound (US) imaging and biopsy. We address this limitation by applying attention multiple instance learning (AMIL) to US images. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 333 patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules at UCLA medical center (259 benign, 74 malignant). A multi-modal deep learning AMIL model was developed, combining US images and MT to classify the nodules as benign or malignant and enhance the malignancy risk stratification of MT. Results: The final AMIL model matched MT sensitivity (0.946) while significantly improving PPV (0.477 vs 0.448 for MT alone), indicating fewer false positives while maintaining high sensitivity. Conclusion: Our approach reduces false positives compared to MT while maintaining the same ability to identify positive cases, potentially reducing unnecessary benign thyroid resections in patients with indeterminate nodules.

Digital Volumetric Biopsy Cores Improve Gleason Grading of Prostate Cancer Using Deep Learning

Prostate cancer (PCa) was the most frequently diagnosed cancer among American men in 2023. The histological grading of biopsies is essential for diagnosis, and various deep learning-based solutions have been developed to assist with this task. Existing deep learning frameworks are typically applied to individual 2D cross-sections sliced from 3D biopsy tissue specimens. This process impedes the analysis of complex tissue structures such as glands, which can vary depending on the tissue slice examined. We propose a novel digital pathology data source called a "volumetric core," obtained via the extraction and co-alignment of serially sectioned tissue sections using a novel morphology-preserving alignment framework. We trained an attention-based multiple-instance learning (ABMIL) framework on deep features extracted from volumetric patches to automatically classify the Gleason Grade Group (GGG). To handle volumetric patches, we used a modified video transformer with a deep feature extractor pretrained using self-supervised learning. We ran our morphology-preserving alignment framework to construct 10,210 volumetric cores, leaving out 30% for pretraining. The rest of the dataset was used to train ABMIL, which resulted in a 0.958 macro-average AUC, 0.671 F1 score, 0.661 precision, and 0.695 recall averaged across all five GGG significantly outperforming the 2D baselines.

High Performance P300 Spellers Using GPT2 Word Prediction With Cross-Subject Training

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) severely impairs patients' ability to communicate, often leading to a decline in their quality of life within a few years of diagnosis. The P300 speller brain-computer interface (BCI) offers an alternative communication method by interpreting a subject's EEG response to characters presented on a grid interface. This paper addresses the common speed limitations encountered in training efficient P300-based multi-subject classifiers by introducing innovative "across-subject" classifiers. We leverage a combination of the second-generation Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT2) and Dijkstra's algorithm to optimize stimuli and suggest word completion choices based on typing history. Additionally, we employ a multi-layered smoothing technique to accommodate out-of-vocabulary (OOV) words. Through extensive simulations involving random sampling of EEG data from subjects, we demonstrate significant speed enhancements in typing passages containing rare and OOV words. These optimizations result in approximately 10% improvement in character-level typing speed and up to 40% improvement in multi-word prediction. We demonstrate that augmenting standard row/column highlighting techniques with layered word prediction yields close-to-optimal performance. Furthermore, we explore both "within-subject" and "across-subject" training techniques, showing that speed improvements are consistent across both approaches.

Ultrasound Image Enhancement using CycleGAN and Perceptual Loss

Purpose: The objective of this work is to introduce an advanced framework designed to enhance ultrasound images, especially those captured by portable hand-held devices, which often produce lower quality images due to hardware constraints. Additionally, this framework is uniquely capable of effectively handling non-registered input ultrasound image pairs, addressing a common challenge in medical imaging. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective study, we utilized an enhanced generative adversarial network (CycleGAN) model for ultrasound image enhancement across five organ systems. Perceptual loss, derived from deep features of pretrained neural networks, is applied to ensure the human-perceptual quality of the enhanced images. These images are compared with paired images acquired from high resolution devices to demonstrate the model's ability to generate realistic high-quality images across organ systems. Results: Preliminary validation of the framework reveals promising performance metrics. The model generates images that result in a Structural Similarity Index (SSI) score of 0.722, Locally Normalized Cross-Correlation (LNCC) score of 0.902 and 28.802 for the Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR) metric. Conclusion: This work presents a significant advancement in medical imaging through the development of a CycleGAN model enhanced with Perceptual Loss (PL), effectively bridging the quality gap between ultrasound images from varied devices. By training on paired images, the model not only improves image quality but also ensures the preservation of vital anatomic structural content. This approach may improve equity in access to healthcare by enhancing portable device capabilities, although further validation and optimizations are necessary for broader clinical application.

Predicting Thrombectomy Recanalization from CT Imaging Using Deep Learning Models

For acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients with large vessel occlusions, clinicians must decide if the benefit of mechanical thrombectomy (MTB) outweighs the risks and potential complications following an invasive procedure. Pre-treatment computed tomography (CT) and angiography (CTA) are widely used to characterize occlusions in the brain vasculature. If a patient is deemed eligible, a modified treatment in cerebral ischemia (mTICI) score will be used to grade how well blood flow is reestablished throughout and following the MTB procedure. An estimation of the likelihood of successful recanalization can support treatment decision-making. In this study, we proposed a fully automated prediction of a patient's recanalization score using pre-treatment CT and CTA imaging. We designed a spatial cross attention network (SCANet) that utilizes vision transformers to localize to pertinent slices and brain regions. Our top model achieved an average cross-validated ROC-AUC of 77.33 $\pm$ 3.9\%. This is a promising result that supports future applications of deep learning on CT and CTA for the identification of eligible AIS patients for MTB.

Design considerations for a hierarchical semantic compositional framework for medical natural language understanding

Medical natural language processing (NLP) systems are a key enabling technology for transforming Big Data from clinical report repositories to information used to support disease models and validate intervention methods. However, current medical NLP systems fall considerably short when faced with the task of logically interpreting clinical text. In this paper, we describe a framework inspired by mechanisms of human cognition in an attempt to jump the NLP performance curve. The design centers about a hierarchical semantic compositional model (HSCM) which provides an internal substrate for guiding the interpretation process. The paper describes insights from four key cognitive aspects including semantic memory, semantic composition, semantic activation, and hierarchical predictive coding. We discuss the design of a generative semantic model and an associated semantic parser used to transform a free-text sentence into a logical representation of its meaning. The paper discusses supportive and antagonistic arguments for the key features of the architecture as a long-term foundational framework.

Intra-Domain Task-Adaptive Transfer Learning to Determine Acute Ischemic Stroke Onset Time

Treatment of acute ischemic strokes (AIS) is largely contingent upon the time since stroke onset (TSS). However, TSS may not be readily available in up to 25% of patients with unwitnessed AIS. Current clinical guidelines for patients with unknown TSS recommend the use of MRI to determine eligibility for thrombolysis, but radiology assessments have high inter-reader variability. In this work, we present deep learning models that leverage MRI diffusion series to classify TSS based on clinically validated thresholds. We propose an intra-domain task-adaptive transfer learning method, which involves training a model on an easier clinical task (stroke detection) and then refining the model with different binary thresholds of TSS. We apply this approach to both 2D and 3D CNN architectures with our top model achieving an ROC-AUC value of 0.74, with a sensitivity of 0.70 and a specificity of 0.81 for classifying TSS < 4.5 hours. Our pretrained models achieve better classification metrics than the models trained from scratch, and these metrics exceed those of previously published models applied to our dataset. Furthermore, our pipeline accommodates a more inclusive patient cohort than previous work, as we did not exclude imaging studies based on clinical, demographic, or image processing criteria. When applied to this broad spectrum of patients, our deep learning model achieves an overall accuracy of 75.78% when classifying TSS < 4.5 hours, carrying potential therapeutic implications for patients with unknown TSS.

A Multi-resolution Model for Histopathology Image Classification and Localization with Multiple Instance Learning

Histopathological images provide rich information for disease diagnosis. Large numbers of histopathological images have been digitized into high resolution whole slide images, opening opportunities in developing computational image analysis tools to reduce pathologists' workload and potentially improve inter- and intra- observer agreement. Most previous work on whole slide image analysis has focused on classification or segmentation of small pre-selected regions-of-interest, which requires fine-grained annotation and is non-trivial to extend for large-scale whole slide analysis. In this paper, we proposed a multi-resolution multiple instance learning model that leverages saliency maps to detect suspicious regions for fine-grained grade prediction. Instead of relying on expensive region- or pixel-level annotations, our model can be trained end-to-end with only slide-level labels. The model is developed on a large-scale prostate biopsy dataset containing 20,229 slides from 830 patients. The model achieved 92.7% accuracy, 81.8% Cohen's Kappa for benign, low grade (i.e. Grade group 1) and high grade (i.e. Grade group >= 2) prediction, an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 98.2% and an average precision (AP) of 97.4% for differentiating malignant and benign slides. The model obtained an AUROC of 99.4% and an AP of 99.8% for cancer detection on an external dataset.