Zero-shot Medical Event Prediction Using a Generative Pre-trained Transformer on Electronic Health Records

Longitudinal data in electronic health records (EHRs) represent an individual`s clinical history through a sequence of codified concepts, including diagnoses, procedures, medications, and laboratory tests. Foundational models, such as generative pre-trained transformers (GPT), can leverage this data to predict future events. While fine-tuning of these models enhances task-specific performance, it is costly, complex, and unsustainable for every target. We show that a foundation model trained on EHRs can perform predictive tasks in a zero-shot manner, eliminating the need for fine-tuning. This study presents the first comprehensive analysis of zero-shot forecasting with GPT-based foundational models in EHRs, introducing a novel pipeline that formulates medical concept prediction as a generative modeling task. Unlike supervised approaches requiring extensive labeled data, our method enables the model to forecast a next medical event purely from a pretraining knowledge. We evaluate performance across multiple time horizons and clinical categories, demonstrating model`s ability to capture latent temporal dependencies and complex patient trajectories without task supervision. Model performance for predicting the next medical concept was evaluated using precision and recall metrics, achieving an average top1 precision of 0.614 and recall of 0.524. For 12 major diagnostic conditions, the model demonstrated strong zero-shot performance, achieving high true positive rates while maintaining low false positives. We demonstrate the power of a foundational EHR GPT model in capturing diverse phenotypes and enabling robust, zero-shot forecasting of clinical outcomes. This capability enhances the versatility of predictive healthcare models and reduces the need for task-specific training, enabling more scalable applications in clinical settings.

Digital Volumetric Biopsy Cores Improve Gleason Grading of Prostate Cancer Using Deep Learning

Prostate cancer (PCa) was the most frequently diagnosed cancer among American men in 2023. The histological grading of biopsies is essential for diagnosis, and various deep learning-based solutions have been developed to assist with this task. Existing deep learning frameworks are typically applied to individual 2D cross-sections sliced from 3D biopsy tissue specimens. This process impedes the analysis of complex tissue structures such as glands, which can vary depending on the tissue slice examined. We propose a novel digital pathology data source called a "volumetric core," obtained via the extraction and co-alignment of serially sectioned tissue sections using a novel morphology-preserving alignment framework. We trained an attention-based multiple-instance learning (ABMIL) framework on deep features extracted from volumetric patches to automatically classify the Gleason Grade Group (GGG). To handle volumetric patches, we used a modified video transformer with a deep feature extractor pretrained using self-supervised learning. We ran our morphology-preserving alignment framework to construct 10,210 volumetric cores, leaving out 30% for pretraining. The rest of the dataset was used to train ABMIL, which resulted in a 0.958 macro-average AUC, 0.671 F1 score, 0.661 precision, and 0.695 recall averaged across all five GGG significantly outperforming the 2D baselines.