Unifying Physics- and Data-Driven Modeling via Novel Causal Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network for Interpretable Epidemic Forecasting

Accurate epidemic forecasting is crucial for effective disease control and prevention. Traditional compartmental models often struggle to estimate temporally and spatially varying epidemiological parameters, while deep learning models typically overlook disease transmission dynamics and lack interpretability in the epidemiological context. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Causal Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network (CSTGNN), a hybrid framework that integrates a Spatio-Contact SIR model with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to capture the spatiotemporal propagation of epidemics. Inter-regional human mobility exhibits continuous and smooth spatiotemporal patterns, leading to adjacent graph structures that share underlying mobility dynamics. To model these dynamics, we employ an adaptive static connectivity graph to represent the stable components of human mobility and utilize a temporal dynamics model to capture fluctuations within these patterns. By integrating the adaptive static connectivity graph with the temporal dynamics graph, we construct a dynamic graph that encapsulates the comprehensive properties of human mobility networks. Additionally, to capture temporal trends and variations in infectious disease spread, we introduce a temporal decomposition model to handle temporal dependence. This model is then integrated with a dynamic graph convolutional network for epidemic forecasting. We validate our model using real-world datasets at the provincial level in China and the state level in Germany. Extensive studies demonstrate that our method effectively models the spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious diseases, providing a valuable tool for forecasting and intervention strategies. Furthermore, analysis of the learned parameters offers insights into disease transmission mechanisms, enhancing the interpretability and practical applicability of our model.

Sample Efficient Reinforcement Learning by Automatically Learning to Compose Subtasks

Improving sample efficiency is central to Reinforcement Learning (RL), especially in environments where the rewards are sparse. Some recent approaches have proposed to specify reward functions as manually designed or learned reward structures whose integrations in the RL algorithms are claimed to significantly improve the learning efficiency. Manually designed reward structures can suffer from inaccuracy and existing automatically learning methods are often computationally intractable for complex tasks. The integration of inaccurate or partial reward structures in RL algorithms fail to learn optimal policies. In this work, we propose an RL algorithm that can automatically structure the reward function for sample efficiency, given a set of labels that signify subtasks. Given such minimal knowledge about the task, we train a high-level policy that selects optimal sub-tasks in each state together with a low-level policy that efficiently learns to complete each sub-task. We evaluate our algorithm in a variety of sparse-reward environments. The experiment results show that our approach significantly outperforms the state-of-art baselines as the difficulty of the task increases.

On the Opportunities of Green Computing: A Survey

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has achieved significant advancements in technology and research with the development over several decades, and is widely used in many areas including computing vision, natural language processing, time-series analysis, speech synthesis, etc. During the age of deep learning, especially with the arise of Large Language Models, a large majority of researchers' attention is paid on pursuing new state-of-the-art (SOTA) results, resulting in ever increasing of model size and computational complexity. The needs for high computing power brings higher carbon emission and undermines research fairness by preventing small or medium-sized research institutions and companies with limited funding in participating in research. To tackle the challenges of computing resources and environmental impact of AI, Green Computing has become a hot research topic. In this survey, we give a systematic overview of the technologies used in Green Computing. We propose the framework of Green Computing and devide it into four key components: (1) Measures of Greenness, (2) Energy-Efficient AI, (3) Energy-Efficient Computing Systems and (4) AI Use Cases for Sustainability. For each components, we discuss the research progress made and the commonly used techniques to optimize the AI efficiency. We conclude that this new research direction has the potential to address the conflicts between resource constraints and AI development. We encourage more researchers to put attention on this direction and make AI more environmental friendly.

Approaching epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 with physics-informed neural networks

A physics-informed neural network (PINN) embedded with the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is devised to understand the temporal evolution dynamics of infectious diseases. Firstly, the effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated on synthetic data as generated from the numerical solution of the susceptible-asymptomatic-infected-recovered-dead (SAIRD) model. Then, the method is applied to COVID-19 data reported for Germany and shows that it can accurately identify and predict virus spread trends. The results indicate that an incomplete physics-informed model can approach more complicated dynamics efficiently. Thus, the present work demonstrates the high potential of using machine learning methods, e.g., PINNs, to study and predict epidemic dynamics in combination with compartmental models.

VCE: Variational Convertor-Encoder for One-Shot Generalization

Variational Convertor-Encoder (VCE) converts an image to various styles; we present this novel architecture for the problem of one-shot generalization and its transfer to new tasks not seen before without additional training. We also improve the performance of variational auto-encoder (VAE) to filter those blurred points using a novel algorithm proposed by us, namely large margin VAE (LMVAE). Two samples with the same property are input to the encoder, and then a convertor is required to processes one of them from the noisy outputs of the encoder; finally, the noise represents a variety of transformation rules and is used to convert new images. The algorithm that combines and improves the condition variational auto-encoder (CVAE) and introspective VAE, we propose this new framework aim to transform graphics instead of generating them; it is used for the one-shot generative process. No sequential inference algorithmic is needed in training. Compared to recent Omniglot datasets, the results show that our model produces more realistic and diverse images.

Proximal Policy Optimization via Enhanced Exploration Efficiency

Proximal policy optimization (PPO) algorithm is a deep reinforcement learning algorithm with outstanding performance, especially in continuous control tasks. But the performance of this method is still affected by its exploration ability. For classical reinforcement learning, there are some schemes that make exploration more full and balanced with data exploitation, but they can't be applied in complex environments due to the complexity of algorithm. Based on continuous control tasks with dense reward, this paper analyzes the assumption of the original Gaussian action exploration mechanism in PPO algorithm, and clarifies the influence of exploration ability on performance. Afterward, aiming at the problem of exploration, an exploration enhancement mechanism based on uncertainty estimation is designed in this paper. Then, we apply exploration enhancement theory to PPO algorithm and propose the proximal policy optimization algorithm with intrinsic exploration module (IEM-PPO) which can be used in complex environments. In the experimental parts, we evaluate our method on multiple tasks of MuJoCo physical simulator, and compare IEM-PPO algorithm with curiosity driven exploration algorithm (ICM-PPO) and original algorithm (PPO). The experimental results demonstrate that IEM-PPO algorithm needs longer training time, but performs better in terms of sample efficiency and cumulative reward, and has stability and robustness.

Regularly Updated Deterministic Policy Gradient Algorithm

Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) algorithm is one of the most well-known reinforcement learning methods. However, this method is inefficient and unstable in practical applications. On the other hand, the bias and variance of the Q estimation in the target function are sometimes difficult to control. This paper proposes a Regularly Updated Deterministic (RUD) policy gradient algorithm for these problems. This paper theoretically proves that the learning procedure with RUD can make better use of new data in replay buffer than the traditional procedure. In addition, the low variance of the Q value in RUD is more suitable for the current Clipped Double Q-learning strategy. This paper has designed a comparison experiment against previous methods, an ablation experiment with the original DDPG, and other analytical experiments in Mujoco environments. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of RUD.

NROWAN-DQN: A Stable Noisy Network with Noise Reduction and Online Weight Adjustment for Exploration

Deep reinforcement learning has been applied more and more widely nowadays, especially in various complex control tasks. Effective exploration for noisy networks is one of the most important issues in deep reinforcement learning. Noisy networks tend to produce stable outputs for agents. However, this tendency is not always enough to find a stable policy for an agent, which decreases efficiency and stability during the learning process. Based on NoisyNets, this paper proposes an algorithm called NROWAN-DQN, i.e., Noise Reduction and Online Weight Adjustment NoisyNet-DQN. Firstly, we develop a novel noise reduction method for NoisyNet-DQN to make the agent perform stable actions. Secondly, we design an online weight adjustment strategy for noise reduction, which improves stable performance and gets higher scores for the agent. Finally, we evaluate this algorithm in four standard domains and analyze properties of hyper-parameters. Our results show that NROWAN-DQN outperforms prior algorithms in all these domains. In addition, NROWAN-DQN also shows better stability. The variance of the NROWAN-DQN score is significantly reduced, especially in some action-sensitive environments. This means that in some environments where high stability is required, NROWAN-DQN will be more appropriate than NoisyNets-DQN.

Recruitment-imitation Mechanism for Evolutionary Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning, evolutionary algorithms and imitation learning are three principal methods to deal with continuous control tasks. Reinforcement learning is sample efficient, yet sensitive to hyper-parameters setting and needs efficient exploration; Evolutionary algorithms are stable, but with low sample efficiency; Imitation learning is both sample efficient and stable, however it requires the guidance of expert data. In this paper, we propose Recruitment-imitation Mechanism (RIM) for evolutionary reinforcement learning, a scalable framework that combines advantages of the three methods mentioned above. The core of this framework is a dual-actors and single critic reinforcement learning agent. This agent can recruit high-fitness actors from the population of evolutionary algorithms, which instructs itself to learn from experience replay buffer. At the same time, low-fitness actors in the evolutionary population can imitate behavior patterns of the reinforcement learning agent and improve their adaptability. Reinforcement and imitation learners in this framework can be replaced with any off-policy actor-critic reinforcement learner or data-driven imitation learner. We evaluate RIM on a series of benchmarks for continuous control tasks in Mujoco. The experimental results show that RIM outperforms prior evolutionary or reinforcement learning methods. The performance of RIM's components is significantly better than components of previous evolutionary reinforcement learning algorithm, and the recruitment using soft update enables reinforcement learning agent to learn faster than that using hard update.