Hierarchical Selective Classification

Deploying deep neural networks for risk-sensitive tasks necessitates an uncertainty estimation mechanism. This paper introduces hierarchical selective classification, extending selective classification to a hierarchical setting. Our approach leverages the inherent structure of class relationships, enabling models to reduce the specificity of their predictions when faced with uncertainty. In this paper, we first formalize hierarchical risk and coverage, and introduce hierarchical risk-coverage curves. Next, we develop algorithms for hierarchical selective classification (which we refer to as "inference rules"), and propose an efficient algorithm that guarantees a target accuracy constraint with high probability. Lastly, we conduct extensive empirical studies on over a thousand ImageNet classifiers, revealing that training regimes such as CLIP, pretraining on ImageNet21k and knowledge distillation boost hierarchical selective performance.

A framework for benchmarking class-out-of-distribution detection and its application to ImageNet

When deployed for risk-sensitive tasks, deep neural networks must be able to detect instances with labels from outside the distribution for which they were trained. In this paper we present a novel framework to benchmark the ability of image classifiers to detect class-out-of-distribution instances (i.e., instances whose true labels do not appear in the training distribution) at various levels of detection difficulty. We apply this technique to ImageNet, and benchmark 525 pretrained, publicly available, ImageNet-1k classifiers. The code for generating a benchmark for any ImageNet-1k classifier, along with the benchmarks prepared for the above-mentioned 525 models is available at https://github.com/mdabbah/COOD_benchmarking. The usefulness of the proposed framework and its advantage over alternative existing benchmarks is demonstrated by analyzing the results obtained for these models, which reveals numerous novel observations including: (1) knowledge distillation consistently improves class-out-of-distribution (C-OOD) detection performance; (2) a subset of ViTs performs better C-OOD detection than any other model; (3) the language--vision CLIP model achieves good zero-shot detection performance, with its best instance outperforming 96% of all other models evaluated; (4) accuracy and in-distribution ranking are positively correlated to C-OOD detection; and (5) we compare various confidence functions for C-OOD detection. Our companion paper, also published in ICLR 2023 (What Can We Learn From The Selective Prediction And Uncertainty Estimation Performance Of 523 Imagenet Classifiers), examines the uncertainty estimation performance (ranking, calibration, and selective prediction performance) of these classifiers in an in-distribution setting.

What Can We Learn From The Selective Prediction And Uncertainty Estimation Performance Of 523 Imagenet Classifiers

When deployed for risk-sensitive tasks, deep neural networks must include an uncertainty estimation mechanism. Here we examine the relationship between deep architectures and their respective training regimes, with their corresponding selective prediction and uncertainty estimation performance. We consider some of the most popular estimation performance metrics previously proposed including AUROC, ECE, AURC as well as coverage for selective accuracy constraint. We present a novel and comprehensive study of selective prediction and the uncertainty estimation performance of 523 existing pretrained deep ImageNet classifiers that are available in popular repositories. We identify numerous and previously unknown factors that affect uncertainty estimation and examine the relationships between the different metrics. We find that distillation-based training regimes consistently yield better uncertainty estimations than other training schemes such as vanilla training, pretraining on a larger dataset and adversarial training. Moreover, we find a subset of ViT models that outperform any other models in terms of uncertainty estimation performance. For example, we discovered an unprecedented 99% top-1 selective accuracy on ImageNet at 47% coverage (and 95% top-1 accuracy at 80%) for a ViT model, whereas a competing EfficientNet-V2-XL cannot obtain these accuracy constraints at any level of coverage. Our companion paper, also published in ICLR 2023 (A framework for benchmarking class-out-of-distribution detection and its application to ImageNet), examines the performance of these classifiers in a class-out-of-distribution setting.

Which models are innately best at uncertainty estimation?

Deep neural networks must be equipped with an uncertainty estimation mechanism when deployed for risk-sensitive tasks. This paper studies the relationship between deep architectures and their training regimes with their corresponding selective prediction and uncertainty estimation performance. We consider both in-distribution uncertainties and class-out-of-distribution ones. Moreover, we consider some of the most popular estimation performance metrics previously proposed including AUROC, ECE, AURC, and coverage for selective accuracy constraint. We present a novel and comprehensive study of selective prediction and the uncertainty estimation performance of 484 existing pretrained deep ImageNet classifiers that are available at popular repositories. We identify numerous and previously unknown factors that affect uncertainty estimation and examine the relationships between the different metrics. We find that distillation-based training regimes consistently yield better uncertainty estimations than other training schemes such as vanilla training, pretraining on a larger dataset and adversarial training. We also provide strong empirical evidence showing that ViT is by far the most superior architecture in terms of uncertainty estimation performance, judging by any aspect, in both in-distribution and class-out-of-distribution scenarios.

TransBoost: Improving the Best ImageNet Performance using Deep Transduction

This paper deals with deep transductive learning, and proposes TransBoost as a procedure for fine-tuning any deep neural model to improve its performance on any (unlabeled) test set provided at training time. TransBoost is inspired by a large margin principle and is efficient and simple to use. The ImageNet classification performance is consistently and significantly improved with TransBoost on many architectures such as ResNets, MobileNetV3-L, EfficientNetB0, ViT-S, and ConvNext-T. Additionally we show that TransBoost is effective on a wide variety of image classification datasets.

Disrupting Deep Uncertainty Estimation Without Harming Accuracy

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have proven to be powerful predictors and are widely used for various tasks. Credible uncertainty estimation of their predictions, however, is crucial for their deployment in many risk-sensitive applications. In this paper we present a novel and simple attack, which unlike adversarial attacks, does not cause incorrect predictions but instead cripples the network's capacity for uncertainty estimation. The result is that after the attack, the DNN is more confident of its incorrect predictions than about its correct ones without having its accuracy reduced. We present two versions of the attack. The first scenario focuses on a black-box regime (where the attacker has no knowledge of the target network) and the second scenario attacks a white-box setting. The proposed attack is only required to be of minuscule magnitude for its perturbations to cause severe uncertainty estimation damage, with larger magnitudes resulting in completely unusable uncertainty estimations. We demonstrate successful attacks on three of the most popular uncertainty estimation methods: the vanilla softmax score, Deep Ensembles and MC-Dropout. Additionally, we show an attack on SelectiveNet, the selective classification architecture. We test the proposed attack on several contemporary architectures such as MobileNetV2 and EfficientNetB0, all trained to classify ImageNet.

Train on Small, Play the Large: Scaling Up Board Games with AlphaZero and GNN

Playing board games is considered a major challenge for both humans and AI researchers. Because some complicated board games are quite hard to learn, humans usually begin with playing on smaller boards and incrementally advance to master larger board strategies. Most neural network frameworks that are currently tasked with playing board games neither perform such incremental learning nor possess capabilities to automatically scale up. In this work, we look at the board as a graph and combine a graph neural network architecture inside the AlphaZero framework, along with some other innovative improvements. Our ScalableAlphaZero is capable of learning to play incrementally on small boards, and advancing to play on large ones. Our model can be trained quickly to play different challenging board games on multiple board sizes, without using any domain knowledge. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ScalableAlphaZero and show, for example, that by training it for only three days on small Othello boards, it can defeat the AlphaZero model on a large board, which was trained to play the large board for $30$ days.

HydroNets: Leveraging River Structure for Hydrologic Modeling

Accurate and scalable hydrologic models are essential building blocks of several important applications, from water resource management to timely flood warnings. However, as the climate changes, precipitation and rainfall-runoff pattern variations become more extreme, and accurate training data that can account for the resulting distributional shifts become more scarce. In this work we present a novel family of hydrologic models, called HydroNets, which leverages river network structure. HydroNets are deep neural network models designed to exploit both basin specific rainfall-runoff signals, and upstream network dynamics, which can lead to improved predictions at longer horizons. The injection of the river structure prior knowledge reduces sample complexity and allows for scalable and more accurate hydrologic modeling even with only a few years of data. We present an empirical study over two large basins in India that convincingly support the proposed model and its advantages.

DNF-Net: A Neural Architecture for Tabular Data

A challenging open question in deep learning is how to handle tabular data. Unlike domains such as image and natural language processing, where deep architectures prevail, there is still no widely accepted neural architecture that dominates tabular data. As a step toward bridging this gap, we present DNF-Net a novel generic architecture whose inductive bias elicits models whose structure corresponds to logical Boolean formulas in disjunctive normal form (DNF) over affine soft-threshold decision terms. In addition, DNF-Net promotes localized decisions that are taken over small subsets of the features. We present an extensive empirical study showing that DNF-Nets significantly and consistently outperform FCNs over tabular data. With relatively few hyperparameters, DNF-Nets open the door to practical end-to-end handling of tabular data using neural networks. We present ablation studies, which justify the design choices of DNF-Net including the three inductive bias elements, namely, Boolean formulation, locality, and feature selection.

Accurate Hydrologic Modeling Using Less Information

Joint models are a common and important tool in the intersection of machine learning and the physical sciences, particularly in contexts where real-world measurements are scarce. Recent developments in rainfall-runoff modeling, one of the prime challenges in hydrology, show the value of a joint model with shared representation in this important context. However, current state-of-the-art models depend on detailed and reliable attributes characterizing each site to help the model differentiate correctly between the behavior of different sites. This dependency can present a challenge in data-poor regions. In this paper, we show that we can replace the need for such location-specific attributes with a completely data-driven learned embedding, and match previous state-of-the-art results with less information.