Conformal Generative Modeling with Improved Sample Efficiency through Sequential Greedy Filtering

Generative models lack rigorous statistical guarantees for their outputs and are therefore unreliable in safety-critical applications. In this work, we propose Sequential Conformal Prediction for Generative Models (SCOPE-Gen), a sequential conformal prediction method producing prediction sets that satisfy a rigorous statistical guarantee called conformal admissibility control. This guarantee states that with high probability, the prediction sets contain at least one admissible (or valid) example. To this end, our method first samples an initial set of i.i.d. examples from a black box generative model. Then, this set is iteratively pruned via so-called greedy filters. As a consequence of the iterative generation procedure, admissibility of the final prediction set factorizes as a Markov chain. This factorization is crucial, because it allows to control each factor separately, using conformal prediction. In comparison to prior work, our method demonstrates a large reduction in the number of admissibility evaluations during calibration. This reduction is important in safety-critical applications, where these evaluations must be conducted manually by domain experts and are therefore costly and time consuming. We highlight the advantages of our method in terms of admissibility evaluations and cardinality of the prediction sets through experiments in natural language generation and molecular graph extension tasks.

Bi-Level Motion Imitation for Humanoid Robots

Imitation learning from human motion capture (MoCap) data provides a promising way to train humanoid robots. However, due to differences in morphology, such as varying degrees of joint freedom and force limits, exact replication of human behaviors may not be feasible for humanoid robots. Consequently, incorporating physically infeasible MoCap data in training datasets can adversely affect the performance of the robot policy. To address this issue, we propose a bi-level optimization-based imitation learning framework that alternates between optimizing both the robot policy and the target MoCap data. Specifically, we first develop a generative latent dynamics model using a novel self-consistent auto-encoder, which learns sparse and structured motion representations while capturing desired motion patterns in the dataset. The dynamics model is then utilized to generate reference motions while the latent representation regularizes the bi-level motion imitation process. Simulations conducted with a realistic model of a humanoid robot demonstrate that our method enhances the robot policy by modifying reference motions to be physically consistent.

Conformal Performance Range Prediction for Segmentation Output Quality Control

Recent works have introduced methods to estimate segmentation performance without ground truth, relying solely on neural network softmax outputs. These techniques hold potential for intuitive output quality control. However, such performance estimates rely on calibrated softmax outputs, which is often not the case in modern neural networks. Moreover, the estimates do not take into account inherent uncertainty in segmentation tasks. These limitations may render precise performance predictions unattainable, restricting the practical applicability of performance estimation methods. To address these challenges, we develop a novel approach for predicting performance ranges with statistical guarantees of containing the ground truth with a user specified probability. Our method leverages sampling-based segmentation uncertainty estimation to derive heuristic performance ranges, and applies split conformal prediction to transform these estimates into rigorous prediction ranges that meet the desired guarantees. We demonstrate our approach on the FIVES retinal vessel segmentation dataset and compare five commonly used sampling-based uncertainty estimation techniques. Our results show that it is possible to achieve the desired coverage with small prediction ranges, highlighting the potential of performance range prediction as a valuable tool for output quality control.

Subgroup-Specific Risk-Controlled Dose Estimation in Radiotherapy

Cancer remains a leading cause of death, highlighting the importance of effective radiotherapy (RT). Magnetic resonance-guided linear accelerators (MR-Linacs) enable imaging during RT, allowing for inter-fraction, and perhaps even intra-fraction, adjustments of treatment plans. However, achieving this requires fast and accurate dose calculations. While Monte Carlo simulations offer accuracy, they are computationally intensive. Deep learning frameworks show promise, yet lack uncertainty quantification crucial for high-risk applications like RT. Risk-controlling prediction sets (RCPS) offer model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with mathematical guarantees. However, we show that naive application of RCPS may lead to only certain subgroups such as the image background being risk-controlled. In this work, we extend RCPS to provide prediction intervals with coverage guarantees for multiple subgroups with unknown subgroup membership at test time. We evaluate our algorithm on real clinical planing volumes from five different anatomical regions and show that our novel subgroup RCPS (SG-RCPS) algorithm leads to prediction intervals that jointly control the risk for multiple subgroups. In particular, our method controls the risk of the crucial voxels along the radiation beam significantly better than conventional RCPS.

A Pontryagin Perspective on Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning has traditionally focused on learning state-dependent policies to solve optimal control problems in a closed-loop fashion. In this work, we introduce the paradigm of open-loop reinforcement learning where a fixed action sequence is learned instead. We present three new algorithms: one robust model-based method and two sample-efficient model-free methods. Rather than basing our algorithms on Bellman's equation from dynamic programming, our work builds on Pontryagin's principle from the theory of open-loop optimal control. We provide convergence guarantees and evaluate all methods empirically on a pendulum swing-up task, as well as on two high-dimensional MuJoCo tasks, demonstrating remarkable performance compared to existing baselines.

Distributed Event-Based Learning via ADMM

We consider a distributed learning problem, where agents minimize a global objective function by exchanging information over a network. Our approach has two distinct features: (i) It substantially reduces communication by triggering communication only when necessary, and (ii) it is agnostic to the data-distribution among the different agents. We can therefore guarantee convergence even if the local data-distributions of the agents are arbitrarily distinct. We analyze the convergence rate of the algorithm and derive accelerated convergence rates in a convex setting. We also characterize the effect of communication drops and demonstrate that our algorithm is robust to communication failures. The article concludes by presenting numerical results from a distributed LASSO problem, and distributed learning tasks on MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets. The experiments underline communication savings of 50% or more due to the event-based communication strategy, show resilience towards heterogeneous data-distributions, and highlight that our approach outperforms common baselines such as FedAvg, FedProx, and FedADMM.

Stochastic Online Optimization for Cyber-Physical and Robotic Systems

We propose a novel gradient-based online optimization framework for solving stochastic programming problems that frequently arise in the context of cyber-physical and robotic systems. Our problem formulation accommodates constraints that model the evolution of a cyber-physical system, which has, in general, a continuous state and action space, is nonlinear, and where the state is only partially observed. We also incorporate an approximate model of the dynamics as prior knowledge into the learning process and show that even rough estimates of the dynamics can significantly improve the convergence of our algorithms. Our online optimization framework encompasses both gradient descent and quasi-Newton methods, and we provide a unified convergence analysis of our algorithms in a non-convex setting. We also characterize the impact of modeling errors in the system dynamics on the convergence rate of the algorithms. Finally, we evaluate our algorithms in simulations of a flexible beam, a four-legged walking robot, and in real-world experiments with a ping-pong playing robot.

Primal Methods for Variational Inequality Problems with Functional Constraints

Constrained variational inequality problems are recognized for their broad applications across various fields including machine learning and operations research. First-order methods have emerged as the standard approach for solving these problems due to their simplicity and scalability. However, they typically rely on projection or linear minimization oracles to navigate the feasible set, which becomes computationally expensive in practical scenarios featuring multiple functional constraints. Existing efforts to tackle such functional constrained variational inequality problems have centered on primal-dual algorithms grounded in the Lagrangian function. These algorithms along with their theoretical analysis often require the existence and prior knowledge of the optimal Lagrange multipliers. In this work, we propose a simple primal method, termed Constrained Gradient Method (CGM), for addressing functional constrained variational inequality problems, without necessitating any information on the optimal Lagrange multipliers. We establish a non-asymptotic convergence analysis of the algorithm for variational inequality problems with monotone operators under smooth constraints. Remarkably, our algorithms match the complexity of projection-based methods in terms of operator queries for both monotone and strongly monotone settings, while utilizing significantly cheaper oracles based on quadratic programming. Furthermore, we provide several numerical examples to evaluate the efficacy of our algorithms.

Towards a Systems Theory of Algorithms

Traditionally, numerical algorithms are seen as isolated pieces of code confined to an {\em in silico} existence. However, this perspective is not appropriate for many modern computational approaches in control, learning, or optimization, wherein {\em in vivo} algorithms interact with their environment. Examples of such {\em open} include various real-time optimization-based control strategies, reinforcement learning, decision-making architectures, online optimization, and many more. Further, even {\em closed} algorithms in learning or optimization are increasingly abstracted in block diagrams with interacting dynamic modules and pipelines. In this opinion paper, we state our vision on a to-be-cultivated {\em systems theory of algorithms} and argue in favour of viewing algorithms as open dynamical systems interacting with other algorithms, physical systems, humans, or databases. Remarkably, the manifold tools developed under the umbrella of systems theory also provide valuable insights into this burgeoning paradigm shift and its accompanying challenges in the algorithmic world. We survey various instances where the principles of algorithmic systems theory are being developed and outline pertinent modeling, analysis, and design challenges.

Deep Backtracking Counterfactuals for Causally Compliant Explanations

Counterfactuals can offer valuable insights by answering what would have been observed under altered circumstances, conditional on a factual observation. Whereas the classical interventional interpretation of counterfactuals has been studied extensively, backtracking constitutes a less studied alternative the backtracking principle has emerged as an alternative philosophy where all causal laws are kept intact. In the present work, we introduce a practical method for computing backtracking counterfactuals in structural causal models that consist of deep generative components. To this end, we impose conditions on the structural assignments that enable the generation of counterfactuals by solving a tractable constrained optimization problem in the structured latent space of a causal model. Our formulation also facilitates a comparison with methods in the field of counterfactual explanations. Compared to these, our method represents a versatile, modular and causally compliant alternative. We demonstrate these properties experimentally on a modified version of MNIST and CelebA.