Predicting Bitcoin Market Trends with Enhanced Technical Indicator Integration and Classification Models

Thanks to the high potential for profit, trading has become increasingly attractive to investors as the cryptocurrency and stock markets rapidly expand. However, because financial markets are intricate and dynamic, accurately predicting prices remains a significant challenge. The volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market makes it even harder for traders and investors to make decisions. This study presents a machine learning model based on classification to forecast the direction of the cryptocurrency market, i.e., whether prices will increase or decrease. The model is trained using historical data and important technical indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence, the Relative Strength Index, and Bollinger Bands. We illustrate our approach with an empirical study of the closing price of Bitcoin. Several simulations, including a confusion matrix and Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, are used to assess the model's performance, and the results show a buy/sell signal accuracy of over 92%. These findings demonstrate how machine learning models can assist investors and traders of cryptocurrencies in making wise/informed decisions in a very volatile market.

Evaluation of OpenAI o1: Opportunities and Challenges of AGI

This comprehensive study evaluates the performance of OpenAI's o1-preview large language model across a diverse array of complex reasoning tasks, spanning multiple domains, including computer science, mathematics, natural sciences, medicine, linguistics, and social sciences. Through rigorous testing, o1-preview demonstrated remarkable capabilities, often achieving human-level or superior performance in areas ranging from coding challenges to scientific reasoning and from language processing to creative problem-solving. Key findings include: -83.3% success rate in solving complex competitive programming problems, surpassing many human experts. -Superior ability in generating coherent and accurate radiology reports, outperforming other evaluated models. -100% accuracy in high school-level mathematical reasoning tasks, providing detailed step-by-step solutions. -Advanced natural language inference capabilities across general and specialized domains like medicine. -Impressive performance in chip design tasks, outperforming specialized models in areas such as EDA script generation and bug analysis. -Remarkable proficiency in anthropology and geology, demonstrating deep understanding and reasoning in these specialized fields. -Strong capabilities in quantitative investing. O1 has comprehensive financial knowledge and statistical modeling skills. -Effective performance in social media analysis, including sentiment analysis and emotion recognition. The model excelled particularly in tasks requiring intricate reasoning and knowledge integration across various fields. While some limitations were observed, including occasional errors on simpler problems and challenges with certain highly specialized concepts, the overall results indicate significant progress towards artificial general intelligence.

Oblivious subspace embeddings for compressed Tucker decompositions

Emphasis in the tensor literature on random embeddings (tools for low-distortion dimension reduction) for the canonical polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition has left analogous results for the more expressive Tucker decomposition comparatively lacking. This work establishes general Johnson-Lindenstrauss (JL) type guarantees for the estimation of Tucker decompositions when an oblivious random embedding is applied along each mode. When these embeddings are drawn from a JL-optimal family, the decomposition can be estimated within $\varepsilon$ relative error under restrictions on the embedding dimension that are in line with recent CP results. We implement a higher-order orthogonal iteration (HOOI) decomposition algorithm with random embeddings to demonstrate the practical benefits of this approach and its potential to improve the accessibility of otherwise prohibitive tensor analyses. On moderately large face image and fMRI neuroimaging datasets, empirical results show that substantial dimension reduction is possible with minimal increase in reconstruction error relative to traditional HOOI ($\leq$5% larger error, 50%-60% lower computation time for large models with 50% dimension reduction along each mode). Especially for large tensors, our method outperforms traditional higher-order singular value decomposition (HOSVD) and recently proposed TensorSketch methods.

Gaussian Differential Privacy on Riemannian Manifolds

We develop an advanced approach for extending Gaussian Differential Privacy (GDP) to general Riemannian manifolds. The concept of GDP stands out as a prominent privacy definition that strongly warrants extension to manifold settings, due to its central limit properties. By harnessing the power of the renowned Bishop-Gromov theorem in geometric analysis, we propose a Riemannian Gaussian distribution that integrates the Riemannian distance, allowing us to achieve GDP in Riemannian manifolds with bounded Ricci curvature. To the best of our knowledge, this work marks the first instance of extending the GDP framework to accommodate general Riemannian manifolds, encompassing curved spaces, and circumventing the reliance on tangent space summaries. We provide a simple algorithm to evaluate the privacy budget $\mu$ on any one-dimensional manifold and introduce a versatile Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based algorithm to calculate $\mu$ on any Riemannian manifold with constant curvature. Through simulations on one of the most prevalent manifolds in statistics, the unit sphere $S^d$, we demonstrate the superior utility of our Riemannian Gaussian mechanism in comparison to the previously proposed Riemannian Laplace mechanism for implementing GDP.

Mathematical Challenges in Deep Learning

Deep models are dominating the artificial intelligence (AI) industry since the ImageNet challenge in 2012. The size of deep models is increasing ever since, which brings new challenges to this field with applications in cell phones, personal computers, autonomous cars, and wireless base stations. Here we list a set of problems, ranging from training, inference, generalization bound, and optimization with some formalism to communicate these challenges with mathematicians, statisticians, and theoretical computer scientists. This is a subjective view of the research questions in deep learning that benefits the tech industry in long run.

Conformalized Fairness via Quantile Regression

Algorithmic fairness has received increased attention in socially sensitive domains. While rich literature on mean fairness has been established, research on quantile fairness remains sparse but vital. To fulfill great needs and advocate the significance of quantile fairness, we propose a novel framework to learn a real-valued quantile function under the fairness requirement of Demographic Parity with respect to sensitive attributes, such as race or gender, and thereby derive a reliable fair prediction interval. Using optimal transport and functional synchronization techniques, we establish theoretical guarantees of distribution-free coverage and exact fairness for the induced prediction interval constructed by fair quantiles. A hands-on pipeline is provided to incorporate flexible quantile regressions with an efficient fairness adjustment post-processing algorithm. We demonstrate the superior empirical performance of this approach on several benchmark datasets. Our results show the model's ability to uncover the mechanism underlying the fairness-accuracy trade-off in a wide range of societal and medical applications.

How Does Value Distribution in Distributional Reinforcement Learning Help Optimization?

We consider the problem of learning a set of probability distributions from the Bellman dynamics in distributional reinforcement learning~(RL) that learns the whole return distribution compared with only its expectation in classical RL. Despite its success to obtain superior performance, we still have a poor understanding of how the value distribution in distributional RL works. In this study, we analyze the optimization benefits of distributional RL by leverage of additional value distribution information over classical RL in the Neural Fitted Z-Iteration~(Neural FZI) framework. To begin with, we demonstrate that the distribution loss of distributional RL has desirable smoothness characteristics and hence enjoys stable gradients, which is in line with its tendency to promote optimization stability. Furthermore, the acceleration effect of distributional RL is revealed by decomposing the return distribution. It turns out that distributional RL can perform favorably if the value distribution approximation is appropriate, measured by the variance of gradient estimates in each environment for any specific distributional RL algorithm. Rigorous experiments validate the stable optimization behaviors of distributional RL, contributing to its acceleration effects compared to classical RL. The findings of our research illuminate how the value distribution in distributional RL algorithms helps the optimization.

Distributional Reinforcement Learning via Sinkhorn Iterations

Distributional reinforcement learning~(RL) is a class of state-of-the-art algorithms that estimate the whole distribution of the total return rather than only its expectation. The representation manner of each return distribution and the choice of distribution divergence are pivotal for the empirical success of distributional RL. In this paper, we propose a new class of \textit{Sinkhorn distributional RL} algorithm that learns a finite set of statistics, i.e., deterministic samples, from each return distribution and then leverages Sinkhorn iterations to evaluate the Sinkhorn distance between the current and target Bellmen distributions. Remarkably, as Sinkhorn divergence interpolates between the Wasserstein distance and Maximum Mean Discrepancy~(MMD). This allows our proposed Sinkhorn distributional RL algorithms to find a sweet spot leveraging the geometry of optimal transport-based distance, and the unbiased gradient estimates of MMD. Finally, experiments on a suite of Atari games reveal the competitive performance of Sinkhorn distributional RL algorithm as opposed to existing state-of-the-art algorithms.

Word Embeddings via Causal Inference: Gender Bias Reducing and Semantic Information Preserving

With widening deployments of natural language processing (NLP) in daily life, inherited social biases from NLP models have become more severe and problematic. Previous studies have shown that word embeddings trained on human-generated corpora have strong gender biases that can produce discriminative results in downstream tasks. Previous debiasing methods focus mainly on modeling bias and only implicitly consider semantic information while completely overlooking the complex underlying causal structure among bias and semantic components. To address these issues, we propose a novel methodology that leverages a causal inference framework to effectively remove gender bias. The proposed method allows us to construct and analyze the complex causal mechanisms facilitating gender information flow while retaining oracle semantic information within word embeddings. Our comprehensive experiments show that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art results in gender-debiasing tasks. In addition, our methods yield better performance in word similarity evaluation and various extrinsic downstream NLP tasks.

TAG: Toward Accurate Social Media Content Tagging with a Concept Graph

Although conceptualization has been widely studied in semantics and knowledge representation, it is still challenging to find the most accurate concept phrases to characterize the main idea of a text snippet on the fast-growing social media. This is partly attributed to the fact that most knowledge bases contain general terms of the world, such as trees and cars, which do not have the defining power or are not interesting enough to social media app users. Another reason is that the intricacy of natural language allows the use of tense, negation and grammar to change the logic or emphasis of language, thus conveying completely different meanings. In this paper, we present TAG, a high-quality concept matching dataset consisting of 10,000 labeled pairs of fine-grained concepts and web-styled natural language sentences, mined from the open-domain social media. The concepts we consider represent the trending interests of online users. Associated with TAG is a concept graph of these fine-grained concepts and entities to provide the structural context information. We evaluate a wide range of popular neural text matching models as well as pre-trained language models on TAG, and point out their insufficiency to tag social media content with the most appropriate concept. We further propose a novel graph-graph matching method that demonstrates superior abstraction and generalization performance by better utilizing both the structural context in the concept graph and logic interactions between semantic units in the sentence via syntactic dependency parsing. We open-source both the TAG dataset and the proposed methods to facilitate further research.