A Study on Stock Forecasting Using Deep Learning and Statistical Models

Predicting a fast and accurate model for stock price forecasting is been a challenging task and this is an active area of research where it is yet to be found which is the best way to forecast the stock price. Machine learning, deep learning and statistical analysis techniques are used here to get the accurate result so the investors can see the future trend and maximize the return of investment in stock trading. This paper will review many deep learning algorithms for stock price forecasting. We use a record of s&p 500 index data for training and testing. The survey motive is to check various deep learning and statistical model techniques for stock price forecasting that are Moving Averages, ARIMA which are statistical techniques and LSTM, RNN, CNN, and FULL CNN which are deep learning models. It will discuss various models, including the Auto regression integration moving average model, the Recurrent neural network model, the long short-term model which is the type of RNN used for long dependency for data, the convolutional neural network model, and the full convolutional neural network model, in terms of error calculation or percentage of accuracy that how much it is accurate which measures by the function like Root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean squared error. The model can be used to predict the stock price by checking the low MAE value as lower the MAE value the difference between the predicting and the actual value will be less and this model will predict the price more accurately than other models.

Face Detection: Present State and Research Directions

The majority of computer vision applications that handle images featuring humans use face detection as a core component. Face detection still has issues, despite much research on the topic. Face detection's accuracy and speed might yet be increased. This review paper shows the progress made in this area as well as the substantial issues that still need to be tackled. The paper provides research directions that can be taken up as research projects in the field of face detection.

LongBoX: Evaluating Transformers on Long-Sequence Clinical Tasks

Many large language models (LLMs) for medicine have largely been evaluated on short texts, and their ability to handle longer sequences such as a complete electronic health record (EHR) has not been systematically explored. Assessing these models on long sequences is crucial since prior work in the general domain has demonstrated performance degradation of LLMs on longer texts. Motivated by this, we introduce LongBoX, a collection of seven medical datasets in text-to-text format, designed to investigate model performance on long sequences. Preliminary experiments reveal that both medical LLMs (e.g., BioGPT) and strong general domain LLMs (e.g., FLAN-T5) struggle on this benchmark. We further evaluate two techniques designed for long-sequence handling: (i) local-global attention, and (ii) Fusion-in-Decoder (FiD). Our results demonstrate mixed results with long-sequence handling - while scores on some datasets increase, there is substantial room for improvement. We hope that LongBoX facilitates the development of more effective long-sequence techniques for the medical domain. Data and source code are available at https://github.com/Mihir3009/LongBoX.

TarGEN: Targeted Data Generation with Large Language Models

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has sparked interest in data synthesis techniques, aiming to generate diverse and high-quality synthetic datasets. However, these synthetic datasets often suffer from a lack of diversity and added noise. In this paper, we present TarGEN, a multi-step prompting strategy for generating high-quality synthetic datasets utilizing a LLM. An advantage of TarGEN is its seedless nature; it does not require specific task instances, broadening its applicability beyond task replication. We augment TarGEN with a method known as self-correction empowering LLMs to rectify inaccurately labeled instances during dataset creation, ensuring reliable labels. To assess our technique's effectiveness, we emulate 8 tasks from the SuperGLUE benchmark and finetune various language models, including encoder-only, encoder-decoder, and decoder-only models on both synthetic and original training sets. Evaluation on the original test set reveals that models trained on datasets generated by TarGEN perform approximately 1-2% points better than those trained on original datasets (82.84% via syn. vs. 81.12% on og. using Flan-T5). When incorporating instruction tuning, the performance increases to 84.54% on synthetic data vs. 81.49% on original data by Flan-T5. A comprehensive analysis of the synthetic dataset compared to the original dataset reveals that the synthetic dataset demonstrates similar or higher levels of dataset complexity and diversity. Furthermore, the synthetic dataset displays a bias level that aligns closely with the original dataset. Finally, when pre-finetuned on our synthetic SuperGLUE dataset, T5-3B yields impressive results on the OpenLLM leaderboard, surpassing the model trained on the Self-Instruct dataset by 4.14% points. We hope that TarGEN can be helpful for quality data generation and reducing the human efforts to create complex benchmarks.

Automated Assessment of Critical View of Safety in Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy

Cholecystectomy (gallbladder removal) is one of the most common procedures in the US, with more than 1.2M procedures annually. Compared with classical open cholecystectomy, laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) is associated with significantly shorter recovery period, and hence is the preferred method. However, LC is also associated with an increase in bile duct injuries (BDIs), resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. The primary cause of BDIs from LCs is misidentification of the cystic duct with the bile duct. Critical view of safety (CVS) is the most effective of safety protocols, which is said to be achieved during the surgery if certain criteria are met. However, due to suboptimal understanding and implementation of CVS, the BDI rates have remained stable over the last three decades. In this paper, we develop deep-learning techniques to automate the assessment of CVS in LCs. An innovative aspect of our research is on developing specialized learning techniques by incorporating domain knowledge to compensate for the limited training data available in practice. In particular, our CVS assessment process involves a fusion of two segmentation maps followed by an estimation of a certain region of interest based on anatomical structures close to the gallbladder, and then finally determination of each of the three CVS criteria via rule-based assessment of structural information. We achieved a gain of over 11.8% in mIoU on relevant classes with our two-stream semantic segmentation approach when compared to a single-model baseline, and 1.84% in mIoU with our proposed Sobel loss function when compared to a Transformer-based baseline model. For CVS criteria, we achieved up to 16% improvement and, for the overall CVS assessment, we achieved 5% improvement in balanced accuracy compared to DeepCVS under the same experiment settings.

EDM3: Event Detection as Multi-task Text Generation

Event detection refers to identifying event occurrences in a text and comprises of two subtasks; event identification and classification. We present EDM3, a novel approach for Event Detection that formulates three generative tasks: identification, classification, and combined detection. We show that EDM3 helps to learn transferable knowledge that can be leveraged to perform Event Detection and its subtasks concurrently, mitigating the error propagation inherent in pipelined approaches. Unlike previous dataset- or domain-specific approaches, EDM3 utilizes the existing knowledge of language models, allowing it to be trained over any classification schema. We evaluate EDM3 on multiple event detection datasets: RAMS, WikiEvents, MAVEN, and MLEE, showing that EDM3 outperforms 1) single-task performance by 8.4% on average and 2) multi-task performance without instructional prompts by 2.4% on average. We obtain SOTA results on RAMS (71.3% vs. 65.1% F-1) and competitive performance on other datasets. We analyze our approach to demonstrate its efficacy in low-resource and multi-sentence settings. We also show the effectiveness of this approach on non-standard event configurations such as multi-word and multi-class event triggers. Overall, our results show that EDM3 is a promising approach for Event Detection that has the potential for real-world applications.

A Unified Evaluation Framework for Novelty Detection and Accommodation in NLP with an Instantiation in Authorship Attribution

State-of-the-art natural language processing models have been shown to achieve remarkable performance in 'closed-world' settings where all the labels in the evaluation set are known at training time. However, in real-world settings, 'novel' instances that do not belong to any known class are often observed. This renders the ability to deal with novelties crucial. To initiate a systematic research in this important area of 'dealing with novelties', we introduce 'NoveltyTask', a multi-stage task to evaluate a system's performance on pipelined novelty 'detection' and 'accommodation' tasks. We provide mathematical formulation of NoveltyTask and instantiate it with the authorship attribution task that pertains to identifying the correct author of a given text. We use Amazon reviews corpus and compile a large dataset (consisting of 250k instances across 200 authors/labels) for NoveltyTask. We conduct comprehensive experiments and explore several baseline methods for the task. Our results show that the methods achieve considerably low performance making the task challenging and leaving sufficient room for improvement. Finally, we believe our work will encourage research in this underexplored area of dealing with novelties, an important step en route to developing robust systems.

InstructABSA: Instruction Learning for Aspect Based Sentiment Analysis

In this paper, we present InstructABSA, Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) using instruction learning paradigm for all ABSA subtasks: Aspect Term Extraction (ATE), Aspect Term Sentiment Classification (ATSC), and Joint Task modeling. Our method introduces positive, negative, and neutral examples to each training sample, and instruction tunes the model (Tk-Instruct Base) for each ABSA subtask, yielding significant performance improvements. Experimental results on the Sem Eval 2014 dataset demonstrate that InstructABSA outperforms the previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) approaches on all three ABSA subtasks (ATE, ATSC, and Joint Task) by a significant margin, outperforming 7x larger models. In particular, InstructABSA surpasses the SOTA on the restaurant ATE subtask by 7.31% points and on the Laptop Joint Task by 8.63% points. Our results also suggest a strong generalization ability to unseen tasks across all three subtasks.

"John is 50 years old, can his son be 65?" Evaluating NLP Models' Understanding of Feasibility

In current NLP research, large-scale language models and their abilities are widely being discussed. Some recent works have also found notable failures of these models. Often these failure examples involve complex reasoning abilities. This work focuses on a simple commonsense ability, reasoning about when an action (or its effect) is feasible. We introduce FeasibilityQA, a question-answering dataset involving binary classification (BCQ) and multi-choice multi-correct questions (MCQ) that test understanding of feasibility. We show that even state-of-the-art models such as GPT-3 struggle to answer the feasibility questions correctly. Specifically, on (MCQ, BCQ) questions, GPT-3 achieves accuracy of just (19%, 62%) and (25%, 64%) in zero-shot and few-shot settings, respectively. We also evaluate models by providing relevant knowledge statements required to answer the question and find that the additional knowledge leads to a 7% gain in performance, but the overall performance still remains low. These results make one wonder how much commonsense knowledge about action feasibility is encoded in GPT-3 and how well the model can reason about it.

Intention-Aware Navigation in Crowds with Extended-Space POMDP Planning

This paper presents a hybrid online Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) planning system that addresses the problem of autonomous navigation in the presence of multi-modal uncertainty introduced by other agents in the environment. As a particular example, we consider the problem of autonomous navigation in dense crowds of pedestrians and among obstacles. Popular approaches to this problem first generate a path using a complete planner (e.g., Hybrid A*) with ad-hoc assumptions about uncertainty, then use online tree-based POMDP solvers to reason about uncertainty with control over a limited aspect of the problem (i.e. speed along the path). We present a more capable and responsive real-time approach enabling the POMDP planner to control more degrees of freedom (e.g., both speed AND heading) to achieve more flexible and efficient solutions. This modification greatly extends the region of the state space that the POMDP planner must reason over, significantly increasing the importance of finding effective roll-out policies within the limited computational budget that real time control affords. Our key insight is to use multi-query motion planning techniques (e.g., Probabilistic Roadmaps or Fast Marching Method) as priors for rapidly generating efficient roll-out policies for every state that the POMDP planning tree might reach during its limited horizon search. Our proposed approach generates trajectories that are safe and significantly more efficient than the previous approach, even in densely crowded dynamic environments with long planning horizons.