Spatio-Temporal Conformal Prediction for Power Outage Data

In recent years, increasingly unpredictable and severe global weather patterns have frequently caused long-lasting power outages. Building resilience, the ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from major disruptions, has become crucial for the power industry. To enable rapid recovery, accurately predicting future outage numbers is essential. Rather than relying on simple point estimates, we analyze extensive quarter-hourly outage data and develop a graph conformal prediction method that delivers accurate prediction regions for outage numbers across the states for a time period. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method through extensive numerical experiments in several states affected by extreme weather events that led to widespread outages.

Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty Quantification for Distributed Energy Adoption

The rapid deployment of distributed energy resources (DER) has introduced significant spatio-temporal uncertainties in power grid management, necessitating accurate multilevel forecasting methods. However, existing approaches often produce overly conservative uncertainty intervals at individual spatial units and fail to properly capture uncertainties when aggregating predictions across different spatial scales. This paper presents a novel hierarchical spatio-temporal model based on the conformal prediction framework to address these challenges. Our approach generates circuit-level DER growth predictions and efficiently aggregates them to the substation level while maintaining statistical validity through a tailored non-conformity score. Applied to a decade of DER installation data from a local utility network, our method demonstrates superior performance over existing approaches, particularly in reducing prediction interval widths while maintaining coverage.

Affective Behaviour Analysis via Progressive Learning

Affective Behavior Analysis aims to develop emotionally intelligent technology that can recognize and respond to human emotions. To advance this, the 7th Affective Behavior Analysis in-the-wild (ABAW) competition establishes two tracks: i.e., the Multi-task Learning (MTL) Challenge and the Compound Expression (CE) challenge based on Aff-Wild2 and C-EXPR-DB datasets. In this paper, we present our methods and experimental results for the two competition tracks. Specifically, it can be summarized in the following four aspects: 1) To attain high-quality facial features, we train a Masked-Auto Encoder in a self-supervised manner. 2) We devise a temporal convergence module to capture the temporal information between video frames and explore the impact of window size and sequence length on each sub-task. 3) To facilitate the joint optimization of various sub-tasks, we explore the impact of sub-task joint training and feature fusion from individual tasks on each task performance improvement. 4) We utilize curriculum learning to transition the model from recognizing single expressions to recognizing compound expressions, thereby improving the accuracy of compound expression recognition. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our designs.

ECNet: Effective Controllable Text-to-Image Diffusion Models

The conditional text-to-image diffusion models have garnered significant attention in recent years. However, the precision of these models is often compromised mainly for two reasons, ambiguous condition input and inadequate condition guidance over single denoising loss. To address the challenges, we introduce two innovative solutions. Firstly, we propose a Spatial Guidance Injector (SGI) which enhances conditional detail by encoding text inputs with precise annotation information. This method directly tackles the issue of ambiguous control inputs by providing clear, annotated guidance to the model. Secondly, to overcome the issue of limited conditional supervision, we introduce Diffusion Consistency Loss (DCL), which applies supervision on the denoised latent code at any given time step. This encourages consistency between the latent code at each time step and the input signal, thereby enhancing the robustness and accuracy of the output. The combination of SGI and DCL results in our Effective Controllable Network (ECNet), which offers a more accurate controllable end-to-end text-to-image generation framework with a more precise conditioning input and stronger controllable supervision. We validate our approach through extensive experiments on generation under various conditions, such as human body skeletons, facial landmarks, and sketches of general objects. The results consistently demonstrate that our method significantly enhances the controllability and robustness of the generated images, outperforming existing state-of-the-art controllable text-to-image models.

Affective Behaviour Analysis via Integrating Multi-Modal Knowledge

Affective Behavior Analysis aims to facilitate technology emotionally smart, creating a world where devices can understand and react to our emotions as humans do. To comprehensively evaluate the authenticity and applicability of emotional behavior analysis techniques in natural environments, the 6th competition on Affective Behavior Analysis in-the-wild (ABAW) utilizes the Aff-Wild2, Hume-Vidmimic2, and C-EXPR-DB datasets to set up five competitive tracks, i.e., Valence-Arousal (VA) Estimation, Expression (EXPR) Recognition, Action Unit (AU) Detection, Compound Expression (CE) Recognition, and Emotional Mimicry Intensity (EMI) Estimation. In this paper, we present our method designs for the five tasks. Specifically, our design mainly includes three aspects: 1) Utilizing a transformer-based feature fusion module to fully integrate emotional information provided by audio signals, visual images, and transcripts, offering high-quality expression features for the downstream tasks. 2) To achieve high-quality facial feature representations, we employ Masked-Auto Encoder as the visual features extraction model and fine-tune it with our facial dataset. 3) Considering the complexity of the video collection scenes, we conduct a more detailed dataset division based on scene characteristics and train the classifier for each scene. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our designs.

Federated Battery Diagnosis and Prognosis

Battery diagnosis, prognosis and health management models play a critical role in the integration of battery systems in energy and mobility fields. However, large-scale deployment of these models is hindered by a myriad of challenges centered around data ownership, privacy, communication, and processing. State-of-the-art battery diagnosis and prognosis methods require centralized collection of data, which further aggravates these challenges. Here we propose a federated battery prognosis model, which distributes the processing of battery standard current-voltage-time-usage data in a privacy-preserving manner. Instead of exchanging raw standard current-voltage-time-usage data, our model communicates only the model parameters, thus reducing communication load and preserving data confidentiality. The proposed model offers a paradigm shift in battery health management through privacy-preserving distributed methods for battery data processing and remaining lifetime prediction.

Detecting Electricity Service Equity Issues with Transfer Counterfactual Learning on Large-Scale Outage Datasets

Energy justice is a growing area of interest in interdisciplinary energy research. However, identifying systematic biases in the energy sector remains challenging due to confounding variables, intricate heterogeneity in treatment effects, and limited data availability. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach for counterfactual causal analysis centered on energy justice. We use subgroup analysis to manage diverse factors and leverage the idea of transfer learning to mitigate data scarcity in each subgroup. In our numerical analysis, we apply our method to a large-scale customer-level power outage data set and investigate the counterfactual effect of demographic factors, such as income and age of the population, on power outage durations. Our results indicate that low-income and elderly-populated areas consistently experience longer power outages, regardless of weather conditions. This points to existing biases in the power system and highlights the need for focused improvements in areas with economic challenges.

Facial Affective Analysis based on MAE and Multi-modal Information for 5th ABAW Competition

Human affective behavior analysis focuses on analyzing human expressions or other behaviors, which helps improve the understanding of human psychology. CVPR 2023 Competition on Affective Behavior Analysis in-the-wild (ABAW) makes great efforts to provide the diversity data for the recognition of the commonly used emotion representations, including Action Units~(AU), basic expression categories and Valence-Arousal~(VA). In this paper, we introduce our submission to the CVPR 2023: ABAW5 for AU detection, expression classification, VA estimation and emotional reaction intensity (ERI) estimation. First of all, we introduce the vision information from an MAE model, which has been pre-trained on a large-scale face image dataset in a self-supervised manner. Then the MAE encoder part is finetuned on the ABAW challenges on the single frame of Aff-wild2 dataset. We also exploit the multi-modal and temporal information from the videos and design a transformer-based framework to fusion the multi-modal features. Moreover, we construct a novel two-branch collaboration training strategy to further enhance the model generalization by randomly interpolating the logits space. The extensive quantitative experiments, as well as ablation studies on the Aff-Wild2 dataset and Hume-Reaction dataset prove the effectiveness of our proposed method.

InterMulti:Multi-view Multimodal Interactions with Text-dominated Hierarchical High-order Fusion for Emotion Analysis

Humans are sophisticated at reading interlocutors' emotions from multimodal signals, such as speech contents, voice tones and facial expressions. However, machines might struggle to understand various emotions due to the difficulty of effectively decoding emotions from the complex interactions between multimodal signals. In this paper, we propose a multimodal emotion analysis framework, InterMulti, to capture complex multimodal interactions from different views and identify emotions from multimodal signals. Our proposed framework decomposes signals of different modalities into three kinds of multimodal interaction representations, including a modality-full interaction representation, a modality-shared interaction representation, and three modality-specific interaction representations. Additionally, to balance the contribution of different modalities and learn a more informative latent interaction representation, we developed a novel Text-dominated Hierarchical High-order Fusion(THHF) module. THHF module reasonably integrates the above three kinds of representations into a comprehensive multimodal interaction representation. Extensive experimental results on widely used datasets, (i.e.) MOSEI, MOSI and IEMOCAP, demonstrate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art.

EffMulti: Efficiently Modeling Complex Multimodal Interactions for Emotion Analysis

Humans are skilled in reading the interlocutor's emotion from multimodal signals, including spoken words, simultaneous speech, and facial expressions. It is still a challenge to effectively decode emotions from the complex interactions of multimodal signals. In this paper, we design three kinds of multimodal latent representations to refine the emotion analysis process and capture complex multimodal interactions from different views, including a intact three-modal integrating representation, a modality-shared representation, and three modality-individual representations. Then, a modality-semantic hierarchical fusion is proposed to reasonably incorporate these representations into a comprehensive interaction representation. The experimental results demonstrate that our EffMulti outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. The compelling performance benefits from its well-designed framework with ease of implementation, lower computing complexity, and less trainable parameters.