Sepsyn-OLCP: An Online Learning-based Framework for Early Sepsis Prediction with Uncertainty Quantification using Conformal Prediction

Sepsis is a life-threatening syndrome with high morbidity and mortality in hospitals. Early prediction of sepsis plays a crucial role in facilitating early interventions for septic patients. However, early sepsis prediction systems with uncertainty quantification and adaptive learning are scarce. This paper proposes Sepsyn-OLCP, a novel online learning algorithm for early sepsis prediction by integrating conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification and Bayesian bandits for adaptive decision-making. By combining the robustness of Bayesian models with the statistical uncertainty guarantees of conformal prediction methodologies, this algorithm delivers accurate and trustworthy predictions, addressing the critical need for reliable and adaptive systems in high-stakes healthcare applications such as early sepsis prediction. We evaluate the performance of Sepsyn-OLCP in terms of regret in stochastic bandit setting, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and F-measure. Our results show that Sepsyn-OLCP outperforms existing individual models, increasing AUROC of a neural network from 0.64 to 0.73 without retraining and high computational costs. And the model selection policy converges to the optimal strategy in the long run. We propose a novel reinforcement learning-based framework integrated with conformal prediction techniques to provide uncertainty quantification for early sepsis prediction. The proposed methodology delivers accurate and trustworthy predictions, addressing a critical need in high-stakes healthcare applications like early sepsis prediction.

Flow-based generative models as iterative algorithms in probability space

Generative AI (GenAI) has revolutionized data-driven modeling by enabling the synthesis of high-dimensional data across various applications, including image generation, language modeling, biomedical signal processing, and anomaly detection. Flow-based generative models provide a powerful framework for capturing complex probability distributions, offering exact likelihood estimation, efficient sampling, and deterministic transformations between distributions. These models leverage invertible mappings governed by Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs), enabling precise density estimation and likelihood evaluation. This tutorial presents an intuitive mathematical framework for flow-based generative models, formulating them as neural network-based representations of continuous probability densities. We explore key theoretical principles, including the Wasserstein metric, gradient flows, and density evolution governed by ODEs, to establish convergence guarantees and bridge empirical advancements with theoretical insights. By providing a rigorous yet accessible treatment, we aim to equip researchers and practitioners with the necessary tools to effectively apply flow-based generative models in signal processing and machine learning.

Neural Spatiotemporal Point Processes: Trends and Challenges

Spatiotemporal point processes (STPPs) are probabilistic models for events occurring in continuous space and time. Real-world event data often exhibit intricate dependencies and heterogeneous dynamics. By incorporating modern deep learning techniques, STPPs can model these complexities more effectively than traditional approaches. Consequently, the fusion of neural methods with STPPs has become an active and rapidly evolving research area. In this review, we categorize existing approaches, unify key design choices, and explain the challenges of working with this data modality. We further highlight emerging trends and diverse application domains. Finally, we identify open challenges and gaps in the literature.

Flow-based Conformal Prediction for Multi-dimensional Time Series

Conformal prediction for time series presents two key challenges: (1) leveraging sequential correlations in features and non-conformity scores and (2) handling multi-dimensional outcomes. We propose a novel conformal prediction method to address these two key challenges by integrating Transformer and Normalizing Flow. Specifically, the Transformer encodes the historical context of time series, and normalizing flow learns the transformation from the base distribution to the distribution of non-conformity scores conditioned on the encoded historical context. This enables the construction of prediction regions by transforming samples from the base distribution using the learned conditional flow. We ensure the marginal coverage by defining the prediction regions as sets in the transformed space that correspond to a predefined probability mass in the base distribution. The model is trained end-to-end by Flow Matching, avoiding the need for computationally intensive numerical solutions of ordinary differential equations. We demonstrate that our proposed method achieves smaller prediction regions compared to the baselines while satisfying the desired coverage through comprehensive experiments using simulated and real-world time series datasets.

Distributionally Robust Optimization via Iterative Algorithms in Continuous Probability Spaces

We consider a minimax problem motivated by distributionally robust optimization (DRO) when the worst-case distribution is continuous, leading to significant computational challenges due to the infinite-dimensional nature of the optimization problem. Recent research has explored learning the worst-case distribution using neural network-based generative models to address these computational challenges but lacks algorithmic convergence guarantees. This paper bridges this theoretical gap by presenting an iterative algorithm to solve such a minimax problem, achieving global convergence under mild assumptions and leveraging technical tools from vector space minimax optimization and convex analysis in the space of continuous probability densities. In particular, leveraging Brenier's theorem, we represent the worst-case distribution as a transport map applied to a continuous reference measure and reformulate the regularized discrepancy-based DRO as a minimax problem in the Wasserstein space. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the worst-case distribution can be efficiently computed using a modified Jordan-Kinderlehrer-Otto (JKO) scheme with sufficiently large regularization parameters for commonly used discrepancy functions, linked to the radius of the ambiguity set. Additionally, we derive the global convergence rate and quantify the total number of subgradient and inexact modified JKO iterations required to obtain approximate stationary points. These results are potentially applicable to nonconvex and nonsmooth scenarios, with broad relevance to modern machine learning applications.

Spatial Conformal Inference through Localized Quantile Regression

Reliable uncertainty quantification at unobserved spatial locations, especially in the presence of complex and heterogeneous datasets, remains a core challenge in spatial statistics. Traditional approaches like Kriging rely heavily on assumptions such as normality, which often break down in large-scale, diverse datasets, leading to unreliable prediction intervals. While machine learning methods have emerged as powerful alternatives, they primarily focus on point predictions and provide limited mechanisms for uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction, a distribution-free framework, offers valid prediction intervals without relying on parametric assumptions. However, existing conformal prediction methods are either not tailored for spatial settings, or existing ones for spatial data have relied on rather restrictive i.i.d. assumptions. In this paper, we propose Localized Spatial Conformal Prediction (LSCP), a conformal prediction method designed specifically for spatial data. LSCP leverages localized quantile regression to construct prediction intervals. Instead of i.i.d. assumptions, our theoretical analysis builds on weaker conditions of stationarity and spatial mixing, which is natural for spatial data, providing finite-sample bounds on the conditional coverage gap and establishing asymptotic guarantees for conditional coverage. We present experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets to demonstrate that LSCP achieves accurate coverage with significantly tighter and more consistent prediction intervals across the spatial domain compared to existing methods.

Spatio-Temporal Conformal Prediction for Power Outage Data

In recent years, increasingly unpredictable and severe global weather patterns have frequently caused long-lasting power outages. Building resilience, the ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from major disruptions, has become crucial for the power industry. To enable rapid recovery, accurately predicting future outage numbers is essential. Rather than relying on simple point estimates, we analyze extensive quarter-hourly outage data and develop a graph conformal prediction method that delivers accurate prediction regions for outage numbers across the states for a time period. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method through extensive numerical experiments in several states affected by extreme weather events that led to widespread outages.

Point processes with event time uncertainty

Point processes are widely used statistical models for uncovering the temporal patterns in dependent event data. In many applications, the event time cannot be observed exactly, calling for the incorporation of time uncertainty into the modeling of point process data. In this work, we introduce a framework to model time-uncertain point processes possibly on a network. We start by deriving the formulation in the continuous-time setting under a few assumptions motivated by application scenarios. After imposing a time grid, we obtain a discrete-time model that facilitates inference and can be computed by first-order optimization methods such as Gradient Descent or Variation inequality (VI) using batch-based Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD). The parameter recovery guarantee is proved for VI inference at an $O(1/k)$ convergence rate using $k$ SGD steps. Our framework handles non-stationary processes by modeling the inference kernel as a matrix (or tensor on a network) and it covers the stationary process, such as the classical Hawkes process, as a special case. We experimentally show that the proposed approach outperforms previous General Linear model (GLM) baselines on simulated and real data and reveals meaningful causal relations on a Sepsis-associated Derangements dataset.

Local Flow Matching Generative Models

Flow Matching (FM) is a simulation-free method for learning a continuous and invertible flow to interpolate between two distributions, and in particular to generate data from noise in generative modeling. In this paper, we introduce Local Flow Matching (LFM), which learns a sequence of FM sub-models and each matches a diffusion process up to the time of the step size in the data-to-noise direction. In each step, the two distributions to be interpolated by the sub-model are closer to each other than data vs. noise, and this enables the use of smaller models with faster training. The stepwise structure of LFM is natural to be distilled and different distillation techniques can be adopted to speed up generation. Theoretically, we prove a generation guarantee of the proposed flow model in terms of the $\chi^2$-divergence between the generated and true data distributions. In experiments, we demonstrate the improved training efficiency and competitive generative performance of LFM compared to FM on the unconditional generation of tabular data and image datasets, and also on the conditional generation of robotic manipulation policies.

Posterior sampling via Langevin dynamics based on generative priors

Posterior sampling in high-dimensional spaces using generative models holds significant promise for various applications, including but not limited to inverse problems and guided generation tasks. Despite many recent developments, generating diverse posterior samples remains a challenge, as existing methods require restarting the entire generative process for each new sample, making the procedure computationally expensive. In this work, we propose efficient posterior sampling by simulating Langevin dynamics in the noise space of a pre-trained generative model. By exploiting the mapping between the noise and data spaces which can be provided by distilled flows or consistency models, our method enables seamless exploration of the posterior without the need to re-run the full sampling chain, drastically reducing computational overhead. Theoretically, we prove a guarantee for the proposed noise-space Langevin dynamics to approximate the posterior, assuming that the generative model sufficiently approximates the prior distribution. Our framework is experimentally validated on image restoration tasks involving noisy linear and nonlinear forward operators applied to LSUN-Bedroom (256 x 256) and ImageNet (64 x 64) datasets. The results demonstrate that our approach generates high-fidelity samples with enhanced semantic diversity even under a limited number of function evaluations, offering superior efficiency and performance compared to existing diffusion-based posterior sampling techniques.