A Survey of Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs: Theory Meets Practice

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, understanding and quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions is critical for enhancing application credibility. However, the existing literature relevant to LLM uncertainty estimation often relies on heuristic approaches, lacking systematic classification of the methods. In this survey, we clarify the definitions of uncertainty and confidence, highlighting their distinctions and implications for model predictions. On this basis, we integrate theoretical perspectives, including Bayesian inference, information theory, and ensemble strategies, to categorize various classes of uncertainty estimation methods derived from heuristic approaches. Additionally, we address challenges that arise when applying these methods to LLMs. We also explore techniques for incorporating uncertainty into diverse applications, including out-of-distribution detection, data annotation, and question clarification. Our review provides insights into uncertainty estimation from both definitional and theoretical angles, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of this critical aspect in LLMs. We aim to inspire the development of more reliable and effective uncertainty estimation approaches for LLMs in real-world scenarios.

Unc-TTP: A Method for Classifying LLM Uncertainty to Improve In-Context Example Selection

Nowadays, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional performance across various downstream tasks. However, it is challenging for users to discern whether the responses are generated with certainty or are fabricated to meet user expectations. Estimating the uncertainty of LLMs is particularly challenging due to their vast scale and the lack of white-box access. In this work, we propose a novel Uncertainty Tripartite Testing Paradigm (Unc-TTP) to classify LLM uncertainty, via evaluating the consistency of LLM outputs when incorporating label interference into the sampling-based approach. Based on Unc-TTP outputs, we aggregate instances into certain and uncertain categories. Further, we conduct a detailed analysis of the uncertainty properties of LLMs and show Unc-TTP's superiority over the existing sampling-based methods. In addition, we leverage the obtained uncertainty information to guide in-context example selection, demonstrating that Unc-TTP obviously outperforms retrieval-based and sampling-based approaches in selecting more informative examples. Our work paves a new way to classify the uncertainty of both open- and closed-source LLMs, and introduces a practical approach to exploit this uncertainty to improve LLMs performance.

OEBench: Investigating Open Environment Challenges in Real-World Relational Data Streams

How to get insights from relational data streams in a timely manner is a hot research topic. This type of data stream can present unique challenges, such as distribution drifts, outliers, emerging classes, and changing features, which have recently been described as open environment challenges for machine learning. While existing studies have been done on incremental learning for data streams, their evaluations are mostly conducted with manually partitioned datasets. Thus, a natural question is how those open environment challenges look like in real-world relational data streams and how existing incremental learning algorithms perform on real datasets. To fill this gap, we develop an Open Environment Benchmark named OEBench to evaluate open environment challenges in relational data streams. Specifically, we investigate 55 real-world relational data streams and establish that open environment scenarios are indeed widespread in real-world datasets, which presents significant challenges for stream learning algorithms. Through benchmarks with existing incremental learning algorithms, we find that increased data quantity may not consistently enhance the model accuracy when applied in open environment scenarios, where machine learning models can be significantly compromised by missing values, distribution shifts, or anomalies in real-world data streams. The current techniques are insufficient in effectively mitigating these challenges posed by open environments. More researches are needed to address real-world open environment challenges. All datasets and code are open-sourced in https://github.com/sjtudyq/OEBench.