Skillful High-Resolution Ensemble Precipitation Forecasting with an Integrated Deep Learning Framework

High-resolution precipitation forecasts are crucial for providing accurate weather prediction and supporting effective responses to extreme weather events. Traditional numerical models struggle with stochastic subgrid-scale processes, while recent deep learning models often produce blurry results. To address these challenges, we propose a physics-inspired deep learning framework for high-resolution (0.05\textdegree{} $\times$ 0.05\textdegree{}) ensemble precipitation forecasting. Trained on ERA5 and CMPA high-resolution precipitation datasets, the framework integrates deterministic and probabilistic components. The deterministic model, based on a 3D SwinTransformer, captures average precipitation at mesoscale resolution and incorporates strategies to enhance performance, particularly for moderate to heavy rainfall. The probabilistic model employs conditional diffusion in latent space to account for uncertainties in residual precipitation at convective scales. During inference, ensemble members are generated by repeatedly sampling latent variables, enabling the model to represent precipitation uncertainty. Our model significantly enhances spatial resolution and forecast accuracy. Rank histogram shows that the ensemble system is reliable and unbiased. In a case study of heavy precipitation in southern China, the model outputs align more closely with observed precipitation distributions than ERA5, demonstrating superior capability in capturing extreme precipitation events. Additionally, 5-day real-time forecasts show good performance in terms of CSI scores.

ScribFormer: Transformer Makes CNN Work Better for Scribble-based Medical Image Segmentation

Most recent scribble-supervised segmentation methods commonly adopt a CNN framework with an encoder-decoder architecture. Despite its multiple benefits, this framework generally can only capture small-range feature dependency for the convolutional layer with the local receptive field, which makes it difficult to learn global shape information from the limited information provided by scribble annotations. To address this issue, this paper proposes a new CNN-Transformer hybrid solution for scribble-supervised medical image segmentation called ScribFormer. The proposed ScribFormer model has a triple-branch structure, i.e., the hybrid of a CNN branch, a Transformer branch, and an attention-guided class activation map (ACAM) branch. Specifically, the CNN branch collaborates with the Transformer branch to fuse the local features learned from CNN with the global representations obtained from Transformer, which can effectively overcome limitations of existing scribble-supervised segmentation methods. Furthermore, the ACAM branch assists in unifying the shallow convolution features and the deep convolution features to improve model's performance further. Extensive experiments on two public datasets and one private dataset show that our ScribFormer has superior performance over the state-of-the-art scribble-supervised segmentation methods, and achieves even better results than the fully-supervised segmentation methods. The code is released at https://github.com/HUANGLIZI/ScribFormer.