Skillful High-Resolution Ensemble Precipitation Forecasting with an Integrated Deep Learning Framework

High-resolution precipitation forecasts are crucial for providing accurate weather prediction and supporting effective responses to extreme weather events. Traditional numerical models struggle with stochastic subgrid-scale processes, while recent deep learning models often produce blurry results. To address these challenges, we propose a physics-inspired deep learning framework for high-resolution (0.05\textdegree{} $\times$ 0.05\textdegree{}) ensemble precipitation forecasting. Trained on ERA5 and CMPA high-resolution precipitation datasets, the framework integrates deterministic and probabilistic components. The deterministic model, based on a 3D SwinTransformer, captures average precipitation at mesoscale resolution and incorporates strategies to enhance performance, particularly for moderate to heavy rainfall. The probabilistic model employs conditional diffusion in latent space to account for uncertainties in residual precipitation at convective scales. During inference, ensemble members are generated by repeatedly sampling latent variables, enabling the model to represent precipitation uncertainty. Our model significantly enhances spatial resolution and forecast accuracy. Rank histogram shows that the ensemble system is reliable and unbiased. In a case study of heavy precipitation in southern China, the model outputs align more closely with observed precipitation distributions than ERA5, demonstrating superior capability in capturing extreme precipitation events. Additionally, 5-day real-time forecasts show good performance in terms of CSI scores.

Improving Transformers with Dynamically Composable Multi-Head Attention

Multi-Head Attention (MHA) is a key component of Transformer. In MHA, attention heads work independently, causing problems such as low-rank bottleneck of attention score matrices and head redundancy. We propose Dynamically Composable Multi-Head Attention (DCMHA), a parameter and computation efficient attention architecture that tackles the shortcomings of MHA and increases the expressive power of the model by dynamically composing attention heads. At the core of DCMHA is a $\it{Compose}$ function that transforms the attention score and weight matrices in an input-dependent way. DCMHA can be used as a drop-in replacement of MHA in any transformer architecture to obtain the corresponding DCFormer. DCFormer significantly outperforms Transformer on different architectures and model scales in language modeling, matching the performance of models with ~1.7x-2.0x compute. For example, DCPythia-6.9B outperforms open source Pythia-12B on both pretraining perplexity and downstream task evaluation. The code and models are available at https://github.com/Caiyun-AI/DCFormer.

Improving the Universality and Learnability of Neural Programmer-Interpreters with Combinator Abstraction

To overcome the limitations of Neural Programmer-Interpreters (NPI) in its universality and learnability, we propose the incorporation of combinator abstraction into neural programing and a new NPI architecture to support this abstraction, which we call Combinatory Neural Programmer-Interpreter (CNPI). Combinator abstraction dramatically reduces the number and complexity of programs that need to be interpreted by the core controller of CNPI, while still allowing the CNPI to represent and interpret arbitrary complex programs by the collaboration of the core with the other components. We propose a small set of four combinators to capture the most pervasive programming patterns. Due to the finiteness and simplicity of this combinator set and the offloading of some burden of interpretation from the core, we are able construct a CNPI that is universal with respect to the set of all combinatorizable programs, which is adequate for solving most algorithmic tasks. Moreover, besides supervised training on execution traces, CNPI can be trained by policy gradient reinforcement learning with appropriately designed curricula.