Balancing Efficiency and Effectiveness: An LLM-Infused Approach for Optimized CTR Prediction

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction is essential in online advertising, where semantic information plays a pivotal role in shaping user decisions and enhancing CTR effectiveness. Capturing and modeling deep semantic information, such as a user's preference for "H\"aagen-Dazs' HEAVEN strawberry light ice cream" due to its health-conscious and premium attributes, is challenging. Traditional semantic modeling often overlooks these intricate details at the user and item levels. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel approach that models deep semantic information end-to-end, leveraging the comprehensive world knowledge capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). Our proposed LLM-infused CTR prediction framework(Multi-level Deep Semantic Information Infused CTR model via Distillation, MSD) is designed to uncover deep semantic insights by utilizing LLMs to extract and distill critical information into a smaller, more efficient model, enabling seamless end-to-end training and inference. Importantly, our framework is carefully designed to balance efficiency and effectiveness, ensuring that the model not only achieves high performance but also operates with optimal resource utilization. Online A/B tests conducted on the Meituan sponsored-search system demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms baseline models in terms of Cost Per Mile (CPM) and CTR, validating its effectiveness, scalability, and balanced approach in real-world applications.

EGEAN: An Exposure-Guided Embedding Alignment Network for Post-Click Conversion Estimation

Accurate post-click conversion rate (CVR) estimation is crucial for online advertising systems. Despite significant advances in causal approaches designed to address the Sample Selection Bias problem, CVR estimation still faces challenges due to Covariate Shift. Given the intrinsic connection between the distribution of covariates in the click and non-click spaces, this study proposes an Exposure-Guided Embedding Alignment Network (EGEAN) to address estimation bias caused by covariate shift. Additionally, we propose a Parameter Varying Doubly Robust Estimator with steady-state control to handle small propensities better. Online A/B tests conducted on the Meituan advertising system demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms baseline models with respect to CVR and GMV, validating its effectiveness. Code is available: https://github.com/hydrogen-maker/EGEAN.

Enhancing Language Model Rationality with Bi-Directional Deliberation Reasoning

This paper introduces BI-Directional DEliberation Reasoning (BIDDER), a novel reasoning approach to enhance the decision rationality of language models. Traditional reasoning methods typically rely on historical information and employ uni-directional (left-to-right) reasoning strategy. This lack of bi-directional deliberation reasoning results in limited awareness of potential future outcomes and insufficient integration of historical context, leading to suboptimal decisions. BIDDER addresses this gap by incorporating principles of rational decision-making, specifically managing uncertainty and predicting expected utility. Our approach involves three key processes: Inferring hidden states to represent uncertain information in the decision-making process from historical data; Using these hidden states to predict future potential states and potential outcomes; Integrating historical information (past contexts) and long-term outcomes (future contexts) to inform reasoning. By leveraging bi-directional reasoning, BIDDER ensures thorough exploration of both past and future contexts, leading to more informed and rational decisions. We tested BIDDER's effectiveness in two well-defined scenarios: Poker (Limit Texas Hold'em) and Negotiation. Our experiments demonstrate that BIDDER significantly improves the decision-making capabilities of LLMs and LLM agents.

Visualization-of-Thought Elicits Spatial Reasoning in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have exhibited impressive performance in language comprehension and various reasoning tasks. However, their abilities in spatial reasoning, a crucial aspect of human cognition, remain relatively unexplored. Human possess a remarkable ability to create mental images of unseen objects and actions through a process known as \textbf{the Mind's Eye}, enabling the imagination of the unseen world. Inspired by this cognitive capacity, we propose Visualization-of-Thought (\textbf{VoT}) prompting. VoT aims to elicit spatial reasoning of LLMs by visualizing their reasoning traces, thereby guiding subsequent reasoning steps. We employed VoT for multi-hop spatial reasoning tasks, including natural language navigation, visual navigation, and visual tiling in 2D grid worlds. Experimental results demonstrated that VoT significantly enhances the spatial reasoning abilities of LLMs. Notably, VoT outperformed existing multimodal large language models (MLLMs) in these tasks. While VoT works surprisingly well on LLMs, the ability to generate \textit{mental images} to facilitate spatial reasoning resembles the mind's eye process, suggesting its potential viability in MLLMs.

LLM as a Mastermind: A Survey of Strategic Reasoning with Large Language Models

This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the current status and opportunities for Large Language Models (LLMs) in strategic reasoning, a sophisticated form of reasoning that necessitates understanding and predicting adversary actions in multi-agent settings while adjusting strategies accordingly. Strategic reasoning is distinguished by its focus on the dynamic and uncertain nature of interactions among multi-agents, where comprehending the environment and anticipating the behavior of others is crucial. We explore the scopes, applications, methodologies, and evaluation metrics related to strategic reasoning with LLMs, highlighting the burgeoning development in this area and the interdisciplinary approaches enhancing their decision-making performance. It aims to systematize and clarify the scattered literature on this subject, providing a systematic review that underscores the importance of strategic reasoning as a critical cognitive capability and offers insights into future research directions and potential improvements.

K-Level Reasoning with Large Language Models

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated their proficiency in complex reasoning tasks, their performance in dynamic, interactive, and competitive scenarios - such as business strategy and stock market analysis - remains underexplored. To bridge this gap, we formally explore the dynamic reasoning capabilities of LLMs for decision-making in rapidly evolving environments. We introduce two game theory-based pilot challenges that mirror the complexities of real-world dynamic decision-making. These challenges are well-defined, enabling clear, controllable, and precise evaluation of LLMs' dynamic reasoning abilities. Through extensive experiments, we find that existing reasoning methods tend to falter in dynamic settings that require k-level thinking - a key concept not tackled by previous works. To address this, we propose a novel reasoning approach for LLMs, named "K-Level Reasoning". This approach adopts the perspective of rivals to recursively employ k-level thinking based on available historical information, which significantly improves the prediction accuracy of rivals' subsequent moves and informs more strategic decision-making. This research not only sets a robust quantitative benchmark for the assessment of dynamic reasoning but also markedly enhances the proficiency of LLMs in dynamic contexts.

Power grid operational risk assessment using graph neural network surrogates

We investigate the utility of graph neural networks (GNNs) as proxies of power grid operational decision-making algorithms (optimal power flow (OPF) and security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC)) to enable rigorous quantification of the operational risk. To conduct principled risk analysis, numerous Monte Carlo (MC) samples are drawn from the (foretasted) probability distributions of spatio-temporally correlated stochastic grid variables. The corresponding OPF and SCUC solutions, which are needed to quantify the risk, are generated using traditional OPF and SCUC solvers to generate data for training GNN model(s). The GNN model performance is evaluated in terms of the accuracy of predicting quantities of interests (QoIs) derived from the decision variables in OPF and SCUC. Specifically, we focus on thermal power generation and load shedding at system and individual zone level. We also perform reliability and risk quantification based on GNN predictions and compare with that obtained from OPF/SCUC solutions. Our results demonstrate that GNNs are capable of providing fast and accurate prediction of QoIs and thus can be good surrogate models for OPF and SCUC. The excellent accuracy of GNN-based reliability and risk assessment further suggests that GNN surrogate has the potential to be applied in real-time and hours-ahead risk quantification.

Graph Neural Networks for Power Grid Operational Risk Assessment

In this article, the utility of graph neural network (GNN) surrogates for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling-based risk quantification in daily operations of power grid is investigated. The MC simulation process necessitates solving a large number of optimal power flow (OPF) problems corresponding to the sample values of stochastic grid variables (power demand and renewable generation), which is computationally prohibitive. Computationally inexpensive surrogates of the OPF problem provide an attractive alternative for expedited MC simulation. GNN surrogates are especially suitable due to their superior ability to handle graph-structured data. Therefore, GNN surrogates of OPF problem are trained using supervised learning. They are then used to obtain Monte Carlo (MC) samples of the quantities of interest (operating reserve, transmission line flow) given the (hours-ahead) probabilistic wind generation and load forecast. The utility of GNN surrogates is evaluated by comparing OPF-based and GNN-based grid reliability and risk for IEEE Case118 synthetic grid. It is shown that the GNN surrogates are sufficiently accurate for predicting the (bus-level, branch-level and system-level) grid state and enable fast as well as accurate operational risk quantification for power grids. The article thus develops various tools for fast reliability and risk quantification for real-world power grids using GNNs.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction Using Temporal Deep Degradation Network for Complex Machinery with Attention-based Feature Extraction

The precise estimate of remaining useful life (RUL) is vital for the prognostic analysis and predictive maintenance that can significantly reduce failure rate and maintenance costs. The degradation-related features extracted from the sensor streaming data with neural networks can dramatically improve the accuracy of the RUL prediction. The Temporal deep degradation network (TDDN) model is proposed to make the RUL prediction with the degradation-related features given by the one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D CNN) feature extraction and attention mechanism. 1D CNN is used to extract the temporal features from the streaming sensor data. Temporal features have monotonic degradation trends from the fluctuating raw sensor streaming data. Attention mechanism can improve the RUL prediction performance by capturing the fault characteristics and the degradation development with the attention weights. The performance of the TDDN model is evaluated on the public C-MAPSS dataset and compared with the existing methods. The results show that the TDDN model can achieve the best RUL prediction accuracy in complex conditions compared to current machine learning models. The degradation-related features extracted from the high-dimension sensor streaming data demonstrate the clear degradation trajectories and degradation stages that enable TDDN to predict the turbofan-engine RUL accurately and efficiently.

Attention-based Deep Neural Networks for Battery Discharge Capacity Forecasting

Battery discharge capacity forecasting is critically essential for the applications of lithium-ion batteries. The capacity degeneration can be treated as the memory of the initial battery state of charge from the data point of view. The streaming sensor data collected by battery management systems (BMS) reflect the usable battery capacity degradation rates under various operational working conditions. The battery capacity in different cycles can be measured with the temporal patterns extracted from the streaming sensor data based on the attention mechanism. The attention-based similarity regarding the first cycle can describe the battery capacity degradation in the following cycles. The deep degradation network (DDN) is developed with the attention mechanism to measure similarity and predict battery capacity. The DDN model can extract the degeneration-related temporal patterns from the streaming sensor data and perform the battery capacity prediction efficiently online in real-time. Based on the MIT-Stanford open-access battery aging dataset, the root-mean-square error of the capacity estimation is 1.3 mAh. The mean absolute percentage error of the proposed DDN model is 0.06{\%}. The DDN model also performance well in the Oxford Battery Degradation Dataset with dynamic load profiles. Therefore, the high accuracy and strong robustness of the proposed algorithm are verified.